Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference Growth Through Wisdom

Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia Conference Keynote Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms Speaker Annimac www. annimac. com. au

“ Everything that has been standard practice for 5 generations on my family farm is now wrong. ” Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38

Rate of Change 5 minutes 5 days every day - new technology new product or service 1 million new web pages Change we have in one day Our grandparents had in one year Younger means faster

Driving all Drivers of Change Technology 70 % e. g. by 2020 types of jobs then do not exist now because 80% technology not yet imagined

Likely jobs in next 10 years : • Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Zookeeper - of people • Chief Farm Technologist • Creative Undertaker • Agricultural Biotech Adviser • Pasture Programmer • Valuer of Intangible Assets * • Human Interface Manager * * 2003

Gap : Haves - Have Nots now Technology • Access • Skilling 50 % world not popn wealth no phone

Changing Nature of Work Two major trends : § Co opitalism Cooperative capitalism § Sustainability Development harmony

Changing Nature of Work : • Project • Relationships • One off alliances - consortia • Globally • Fast flat • Values • Asia based Team based networked skilled decision driven markets making Quad Bottom Line

Emerging values for Business intergenerational equity leaving our planet to future generations in as good as or better state than it is today sustainable development human development ( financial economic and social ) in harmony with the natural environment eco-footprinting the assessment of our current usage and 'fair share' of global resources

Farmer’s paddock Williams Albany Hwy WA March 03

Changing Nature of Employment : Two major trends : • Casualisation • Values driven

Changing Nature of Employment : • Contract • Part time • Skill based • Employee • Values driven not money • personal people planet • Global based : Projects Multi skilling benefits sourcing negotiated

Aus Small Business Trends ABS 1996 - 2001 Number of small biz in Aus 1, 505, 924 Income increase over 5 yrs including wages profit up by 18. 6 % 29. 9 % 13. 4 % Number in capital cities 945, 320 only Hobart decreasing Number outside capital cities decreasing by 611, 476 1%

Small biz Highest 5 yr growth outside capital cities : SW Queensland Kimberley WA Outer Adelaide Central W Queensland 42. 4 % 41. 7 % 37. 4 % 31. 2 % Decline in total income in 4 Regions : Midlands WA South Eastern WA Upper Great Southern WA Northern Sth Australia - 1. 1 % 3. 9 % 8. 8% 4. 8 % Average income grew in all regions

ABS Estimates: Ave Annual Growth in Total Income of Small Businesses 1996 to 2001

Trends in farm income :

Future growth trends - small biz startup : Domestic services - “ Do it for me ” • • home cleaning, maintenance and gardening healthy prepared meals and home catering shopping and delivery services home security systems and patrol services household waste disposal and recycling care pool cleaning pet care

Start-ups Community services • • travel & tourism special interest education – leisure & learning investment & retirement planning sports & recreation tailored accommodation facilities home & health care preventative health & alternative therapies mobility & companionship services

Start-ups Health & lifestyle • • alternative therapies stress management, relaxation & meditation personal counselling & self awareness parenting skills & techniques public speaking & social etiquette career & skills development image consulting personal security, self-defence & devices

Start-ups Business services • • • computer consultancy services employment placement & staff contracting accounting & business advisory services serviced offices & secretarial support business planning & information services marketing & public relations

Start-ups Tourism & Recreation • • • ecotourism & nature based tours heritage & nostalgia tours backpacker tourism farm-stays special events e. g. country show days concert & sporting events Major growth : On line e-business

Trends in Rural Australia • Farming communities downsizing • Family farms corporatising • Urban encroachment • Ageing farm population • Succession issues : youth issues • Women as farm biz managers • Slow uptake of technology • Slow uptake new knowledge

Trends of Climate Change • Forecasters disagree long term • Global warming impacting • Some changes inevitable • Aus second most arid continent • Aus climate highly vulnerable

Trends of Climate Change : Aus climate cyclical - shorter Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change : • hi risk : coral reefs alpine tropical forests mangrove wetlands deserts savannahs natural grasslands Global warming impacting Aus : • increasing carbon dioxide • changing temperatures : hi certainty • changing rainfall : mod certainty

Likely impact of climate change • CO 2 to 455 ppm : 2030 mostly good • plant growth & water efficiency • Temperature warming : • Rainfall change : mostly not good 2° to 4° C • southwest : -20% to +5% • southeast, Qld : -10% to +5% • inland : summer or autumn

Some Specific Impacts Wheat : • • • faster growth less grain filling high yield lower grain protein not bread making or pasta grain Fruit : • • • esp apples stone fruits southern Aus less frost damage less chilling less bud burst lower fruit set lower yield reduced quality

Rainfall change % 0% - 20% Yield response % 20% Temperature increase °C Changing rainfall & temperature impact on wheat production in Australia CSIRO 2001

High rainfall Pastures : • • NSW Vic : CO 2 & warming cancel out sthn Aus less winter spring rain • less plant production • less animal production • higher temp : dairy cows less milk Rangelands : delicate diversity threatened • sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain • less forage less animal production • nthn Aus more summer rain CO 2 • more forage poorer quality • nthn sub / tropics move south • natural vegetation unable to adapt

Growth in forests : if CO 2 doubles with 3°C temp increase > 50% -25 to -50% 25 to 50% -50 to -25% 0 to 25% < -50% No growth

Shifting Global Values Gap widening : Knowledge • Haves / have nots • Age generations • Globally networked

Gap : Haves - Have Nots now Technology • Access • Skilling 50 % world not popn wealth no phone

Australian Population Pyramid Aus Govt 2001

Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism • economic rationalists : profit • material values : tangibles • science as religion : rational • Generation X 30 – 45 yrs • clones of Boomers : materialists • copy younger : sustainability or

Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • Dot. Coms 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability • global identity • co opitalism • relationships • holistic win - win – win • Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www. cluetrainmanifesto. com

Chinese Technology Centre

Gap : Age Generations Four generations : • Ferals. . . Three worlds 0 – 15 yrs no limits no boundaries parallel universes quantum everything invent their world beyond our imagining . Indigo children Virtual

Gap : Globally Networked Those globally networked : • access all knowledge • empowered • confident • passionately committed • global view future • one planet : one future

Summary Impact for WFI • transiting two worlds - accelerating • values shift to sustainability • cooperation not • climate change impacting agribiz • rural Aus rapid demographic shifts • young non negotiators • relationships : consumers partners innovators QBL competition

Two greatest challenges facing WFI Changing nature of agribiz • facilitating client change • risk management during change Changing nature of clients • understanding immense differences • responding to - not imposing upon

Thank you www. annimac. com. au