Welcome To The 31 th HPC User Forum

Welcome To The 31 th HPC User Forum Meeting October 16, 2008

Special Thanks To: Imperial College London Simon Burbidge Sue Pritchett

Thank You To Our Sponsors: Altair Fujitsu HP IBM Panasas

Steve Finn And Steve Conway HPC User Forum Update

Introduction: HPC User Forum Mission Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing, technical and business problems A forum for exchanging information, identifying areas of common interest, and developing unified positions on requirements Provide members with a continual supply of information on: § Uses of high end computers, high end best practices, market dynamics, computer systems and tools, vendor activities and strategies Provide members with a channel to present their achievements and requirements to outside interested parties

Introduction: HPC User Forum Mission European Meeting Goal: Maintain a dialogue between US and European HPC users/buyers • Recognizing that European market dynamics are not identical to U. S. market dynamics • And that dynamics in Europe vary from country to country and region to region

Introduction: HPC User Forum Steering Committee Steve Finn BAE Systems Chairman Paul Buerger Ohio Supercomputer Center Paul Muzio City University of New York Sharan Kalwani General Motors Corporation Vice Chairman Steve Conway IDC Research Vice President Michael Resch HRLS, University of Stuttgart Jack Collins National Cancer Institute Vince Scarafino Industry Expert James Kasdorf Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center Suresh Shukla The Boeing Company Earl Joseph IDC, Executive Director Vijay Agarwala Penn State University Alex Akkerman Ford Motor Company Doug Ball The Boeing Company Doug Kothe Oak Ridge National Laboratory Robert Singleterry NASA/Langley Allan Snavely San Diego Supercomputer Center

Important Dates For Your Calendar HPC User Forum Meetings: § October 13 and 14, 2008 – HLRS/University of Stuttgart § October 16, 2008 – Imperial College London § April 20 to 22, 2009 – The Hotel Roanoke & Conference Center, Roanoke, VA § September 8 to 10, 2009 – Omni Interlocken Resort, Broomfield, CO SC 08 in Austin, Texas, November 15 to 21, 2008 ISC 08, Hamburg, June 23 to 26, 2009

IDC HPC Market Update

IDC’s HPC Team Earl Joseph IDC HPC research studies, HPC User Forum, and strategic consulting Steve Conway HPC User Forum, consulting, primary user research and events Richard Walsh In-depth technical analysis, special studies, processor trends, and data center issues Jie Wu HPC research specialist, census and forecasts, China research, interconnects and grids Lloyd Cohen Director Worldwide Market Analysis, data analysis, workstations Beth Throckmorton Government account support, special projects Charlie Hayes Government HPC issues, DOE, and special studies Mary Rolph Conference planning and logistics © 2007 IDC 10

Top Trends in HPC continues to show strong growth 10% this Q § 19% yearly growth over the last 4 years § We are forecasting 9. 2% growth for the next 5 years Blades are making inroads into all segments Major challenges for datacenters: § Power, cooling, real estate, system management § Storage and data management continue to grow in importance Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users § Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems

Why Has Technical Computing Grown So Quickly? 1. Price and price/peak performance of clusters has redefined the cost of technical computing – >6 x better than RISC, >70 x better than vectors 2. At the same time, “live” science and “live” engineering costs have escalated – Plus time-to-solution is months faster with simulations 3. Global competitiveness is driving R&D and better product designs 4. At the same time, x 86 performance on technical applications is weak – Driving buyers to purchase a much larger number of processors 5. New materials and approaches require rewriting the “books and tables” which takes years – making simulations a faster solution

2007 HPC Market Size By Competitive Segments HPC Servers $10 B Workgroup (under $100 K) $2. 4 B Supercomputers (Over $500 K) $2. 7 B Divisional ($250 K - $500 K) $1. 6 B Departmental ($250 K - $100 K) $3. 4 B

Vendor HPC Market Shares In 2 Q 08: All HPC Segments

Total HPC Revenue by Processor Type

Why Is Commodity Hot? . . Price! HPC All Servers Processor Summary, 2007

HPC Cluster Update

HPC Cluster Revenue Growth Rates Growth Has Averaged Over 74%/yr Since 2002

10 3 Q 20 3 Q 30 3 Q 40 3 Q 10 4 Q 20 4 Q 30 4 Q 40 4 Q 10 5 Q 20 5 Q 30 5 Q 40 5 Q 10 6 Q 20 6 Q 30 6 Q 40 6 Q 10 7 Q 20 7 Q 30 7 Q 40 7 Q Growth In HPC Clusters 90% Cluster 80% Non-Cluster 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Cluster Revenue Share by Processor

HPC Cluster Processor Shipments HPC cluster processors are now shipping at a rate of over 2. 8 million a year § Average yearly growth has been 44%

HPC Market Forecasts

HPC Forecast: Strong Growth Over Next Five Years ($ Millions) Source: IDC, 2008

HPC Application Forecast, 2007 - 2012

Summary Thoughts

Major Customer Pain Points 1. Clusters are still hard to use and manage System management & growing cluster complexity Power, cooling and floor space are major issues Third party software costs Weak interconnect performance at all levels Applications & programming — Hard to scale beyond a node § RAS is a growing issue § Storage and data management are becoming new bottle necks § Lack of support for heterogeneous environment and accelerators § § §

Major Customer Pain Points Software is becoming the #1 roadblock § Better management software is needed – HPC clusters are hard to setup and operate – New buyers – require “ease-of-everything” § Parallel software is lacking for most users – Many applications will need a major redesign – Multi-core will cause many issues to “hit-the-wall”

Software – ISV Scaling Limitations TABLE 20 Typical Number of Processors the ISV Applications Use for Single Jobs CPU Range Number of Applications Percent 1 19 24. 4% 2 -8 25 32. 1% 9 -32 20 25. 6% 33 -128 9 11. 5% 129 -1024 4 5. 1% Unlimited 1 1. 3% 78 100. 0% Total:

New Challenges Affecting IT Datacenters The increase in CPUs and server units is creating significant IT challenges in: § Managing complexity – How to best manage a complex cluster – How to install/setup a new cluster without having to buy a large number of separate pieces § Power/cooling and Space § Application scaling and hardware utilization – How to deliver strong performance to users on YOUR applications – How to make optimal use of new processor and system designs

Questions? Please email: hpc@idc. com Or check out: www. hpcuserforum. com

Agenda: Thursday Morning 9: 00 9: 15 9: 30 10: 00 10: 30 10: 45 11: 15 11: 30 12: 00 12: 15 Imperial College Welcome HPC User Forum Welcome/Introductions, Steve Finn and Steve Conway Jamil Appa, BAE Systems, HPC in Aerospace Doug Ball, Boeing, HPC Trends in Aerospace IBM Technology Update Isabella Weger, ECMWF, HPC and Weather Prediction Break Gerard Gorman, Imperial College, Software Engineering & Support Dr. Frank Baetke, HP's Scalable Computing Strategy Lunch

Lunch Logistics

Welcome To The 31 th HPC User Forum Meeting

Agenda: Thursday Afternoon 13: 15 13: 30 14: 00 14: 30 14: 45 15: 15 15: 45 16: 15 16: 30 17: 00 17: 15 17: 45 18: 00 Panasas Technology Update Terry Hewitt, EDS, Automotive Work for Rolls-Royce Fujitsu R&D Technology Update, Motoi Okuda Andrew Jones, NAG, HPC Trends and Issues Peter Haynes, Imperial College, Materials and Physics Vince Scarafino, HPC User Forum HPC Technology Panel Results Irene Qualters, SGI, Industrial Strength Linux Break Mark Parsons, EPCC Site Update and HECTo. R Program Bill Butcher, Altair Engineering, Update HPC trends at NASA, Robert Singleterry Wrap up and plans for future HPC User Forum meetings, Steve Conway and Steve Finn Guided Tour of Imperial College

Important Dates For Your Calendar HPC User Forum Meetings: § October 13 and 14 – In Stuttgart, Germany § October 16 – At the Imperial College, London § April 20 to 22, 2009 – The Hotel Roanoke & Conference Center, Roanoke, VA § September 8 to 10, 2009 – Omni Interlocken Resort, Broomfield, CO Supercomputing 08 in Austin, Texas, November 17 to 21, 2007 ISC 08, Hamburg, June 23 to 26, 2009

Thank You th For Attending The 31 HPC User Forum Meeting

Questions? Please email: hpc@idc. com Or check out: www. hpcuserforum. com