Welcome to Breakout 5 BO 5 Cost Schedule
Welcome to Breakout #5 (BO 5) Cost, Schedule, and Management (15 -253) Today: 3: 00 pm BO 5. 1 Proj Mgnt, Risk, Cost, and Schedule 3: 45 pm Discussion 4: 15 pm BO 5. 2 Project Controls, EVMS 4: 35 pm Discussion 5: 00 pm Full Committee Executive Session Heetderks Morgan Klaisner Tomorrow: 9: 00 am BO 5. 3 Equipment Protection Zimmerman 9: 20 am Discussion 9: 35 am BO 5. 4 EH&S White 9: 55 am Discussion 10: 10 am BO 5. 5 NOAO-DESI Installation Safety Lavoie 10: 30 am Discussion 10: 50 am BO 5. 6 Non-Federal Funding/CRADA’s/MOU’s Levi 11: 00 am Discussion Adjourn H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1
Project Management, Risk, Cost, and Schedule CD-2 Director’s Review Breakout BO 5. 1 2015 -06 -17 Henry Heetderks (UCB) Project Manager H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1
Outline • DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 2
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 3
DESI Project Org Chart (PEP Figure 2) Blue text indicates member of IPT H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 4
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 5
DESI Management Strategy • • • In addition to the usual development of instrument hardware and software by Project employees and vendors, the project is dependent on the delivery of work packages by institutions and personnel whose funding we do not directly control. This presents a management challenge. We have chosen suppliers of major subsystems with extensive experience with similar projects MOU’s and agreements will be made at the highest level possible Collaborator tasks are organized into well-defined, compact portions of the WBS owned by the collaborator personnel We have been holding numerous ad hoc as well as regular weekly meetings with collaborator personnel — Weekly status, schedule and costing meetings with level 2 managers (DESI Tech Board) — Weekly Engineering meeting — Regular technical meetings with the optics group, the focal plate development effort, Spectrograph development, fibre activity, and Mayall interface • We have had excellent cooperation from our foreign and university collaborators in receiving schedule and cost input, BOE data, risk registry input, etc. , as well as in the development of preliminary and final hardware designs H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 6
Managing DESI (con’t) • A very important management activity is to maintain full awareness of technical, schedule, and cost status so that emerging problems can be identified and dealt with before they become major issues — Develop and track a detailed schedule — Well understood Level 2 and 3 Milestones — Maintain continuous dialog with Level 2 managers — Track costs closely (now reporting via EVMS) — Monitor vendor progress closely — Track, mitigate, and retire risks • Finally, we will ensure that technical and safety related processes are done by assiduously following carefully developed written procedures H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 7
Project Status Reporting to DOE • IPT meetings held bi-monthly • DOE Federal Project Director is in close contact with the DESI Project Office — Numerous Adhoc meetings — Attends DESI Management Meetings and weekly Technical Board Meetings • We report progress to DOE via Monthly Status Reports and via a monthly telephone conference attended by: — DOE Acquisition Executive — DOE Federal Program Manager — DOE Federal Project Director — LBNL Physics Division Director — DESI Project Manager H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 8
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 9
Level 2 WBS and Responsible Organization 1 MS-DESI LBNL 1. 1 Project Management LBNL 1. 2 Corrector and ADC Assembly University College London (United Kingdom) with UC Berkeley 1. 3 Cage & Ring Assembly with Barrel Components FERMI National Laboratory (FNAL) 1. 4 Focal Plane Assembly LBNL 1. 5 Fibre System with Spectrograph Slit Assembly Durham University (UK) with LBNL 1. 6 Spectrographs LBNL 1. 7 Instrument Control System Ohio State University 1. 8 Data System LBNL with University of Utah 1. 9 System Level Assembly, Integration and LBNL with NOAO Testing H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 10
DESI System -- WBS 1. 0 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 11
WBS 1. 2 – Corrector Optics Univ College London / LBNL H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 1. 2. 1 Corrector Activities Management (UCL) 1. 2. 2 Corrector baseline dev’t and perf char. (LBNL) 1. 2. 3 Lens manuf plan dev’t & vendor select (LBNL) 1. 2. 4 Lens procurement (UCB, UCL) 1. 2. 5 Lens Coating Development (UCL) 1. 2. 6 Lens cell procurement (UCL) 1. 2. 7 Mounting lenses in cells (UCL) 1. 2. 8 Mount lens cells in barrel (UCL) 1. 2. 9 Ship, Assy, Test (UCL) DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 12
WBS 1. 3 -- Cage, Ring, & Barrel 1. 3. 1 Cage and Barrel Management 1. 3. 2 Corrector Barrel Assembly 1. 3. 3 Cage & Ring Assembly 1. 3. 4 Hexapod 1. 3. 5 Cage Electrical Controller and Interface 1. 3. 6 Cage & Corrector GSE 1. 3. 7 Integration and Testing Fermi National Accelerator Lab H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 13
WBS 1. 4 -- Focal Plane Assembly LBNL with Others I&T LBNL Barcelona Group (Spain) / SLAC 1. 4. 1 Focal Plane System Management (LBNL) 1. 4. 2 Focal Plate Structure (LBNL) 1. 4. 3 Fiber Positioner Development (LBNL) 1. 4. 4 Fibre Positioner Production (Michigan) 1. 4. 5 Fibre View Camera (Yale) 1. 4. 6 Guide, Focus, Align’t Sens (Barcelona) 1. 4. 7 GFA Software (SLAC) 1. 4. 8 Thermal Enclosure (LBNL) 1. 4. 9 Focal Plane I&T 1. 4. 10 FPS Delivery and Verification (LBNL) Yale Michigan, EPFL (Switzerland) H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 14
WBS 1. 5 -- Fibre System Durham University with LBNL H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 1. 5. 1 Fibre. System Management (DU) 1. 5. 2 Proto. DESI Optical Fibre (DU) 1. 5. 3 Optical Fibre (DU) 1. 5. 4 Splicing System Procure and Train (LBNL) 1. 5. 5 Positioner Fibre Assy (LBNL) 1. 5. 5 Fibre Spool Box Assy (LBNL) 1. 5. 6 Fibre Cable (DU) 1. 5. 7 Proto. DESI Output Termination (DU) 1. 5. 8 Slit Assy Development (DU) 1. 5. 9 Fibre. Focal Plane I&T (LBNL) 1. 5. 10 Fibre Quality Assurance (DU) DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 15
WBS 1. 6 -- Spectrographs LBNL with CEA and AMU (France), Ohio State University H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 1. 6. 1 Spectrographs Mech Management (OSU) 1. 6. 2 Requirements & Management (LBNL) 1. 6. 3 Spectrograph Components & Procurement(LBNL) 1. 6. 4 Engineering Requirements and ICD's (LBNL) 1. 6. 5 EM Spectrograph Subassys (OSU) 1. 6. 6 Spectr Prod Unit Subassy’s Procure (OSU) 1. 6. 7 Spectrograph Prod Units Fab and I&T (Var) 1. 6. 8 Cryostats (CEA) 1. 6. 9 Detectors and Electronics (LBNL) 1. 6. 10 Calibration System (AMU) 1. 6. 11 Spectrograph Support Rack (OSU) 1. 6. 12 Shipping, and Handling Equipment (OSU) 1. 6. 13 Spectrograph Test Equipment (LBNL) 1. 6. 14 Ship to Telescope Site and Verify (Various) DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 16
WBS 1. 7 -- Instrument Control System 1. 7. 1 ICS Project Management 1. 7. 2 Infrastructure Software 1. 7. 3 Databases 1. 7. 4 Observation Control 1. 7. 5 Observer Console and User Interfaces 1. 7. 6 Guider, Focus, and Alignment Control 1. 7. 7 Fibre Position Control System 1. 7. 8 Instrument Monitor & Control System 1. 7. 9 Image Processing 1. 7. 10 Quick Look and Data QA Framework 1. 7. 11 Mayall Telescope Control Sys Int’f 1. 7. 12 Hardware and Software Licenses 1. 7. 13 Integration Ohio State University H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 17
WBS 1. 8 and WBS 1. 9 WBS 1. 8 -- Science Data Analysis 1. 8. 1 Management of Data Systems 1. 8. 2 Target Selection Pipeline 1. 8. 3 Survey 1. 8. 4 Spectroscopic Pipeline 1. 8. 5 Data Transfer, Archive and Distribution 1. 8. 6 Data Systems Integration WBS 1. 9 -- AI&T LBNL, NYU, Univ of Utah, Durham Univ, Siena College, ETH Zurich, Brookhaven LBNL with NOAO 1. 9. 1 AI&T Management 1. 9. 2 Mayall Preparation 1. 9. 3 Install & Comm, NOAO 1. 9. 4 Install & Comm, non- NOAO 1. 9. 5 Mayall Operations H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 18
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 19
Resource Loaded Schedule in Primavera P 6 • XXXX activities and YYY milestones • PDF posted at DESI-1258 • Project Controls Analyst is available on request for detailed walk-through • The following slides show the roll-up at Level 3 and the critical path • Following that is a table showing the float to CD-4 for each CD-4 deliverable H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 20
Project Summary Schedule (1 of 3) H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 21
Project Summary Schedule (2 of 3) H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 22
Project Summary Schedule (3 of 3) H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 23
Critical Path WBS 1. 4 WBS 1. 5 WBS 1. 4 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 24
Critical Path cont. WBS 1. 4 WBS 1. 9 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 25
Critical Path and Float • Critical Path runs through — WBS 1. 4 Focal Plane • Petal Assembly • Spool Boxes — WBS 1. 5 Fiber Systems • Fiber Cable Production • Slit Assembly • Integration with WBS 1. 4 — WBS 1. 9 System Level Assembly, Integration and Testing • Assembly of the DESI Subsystems • Commissioning H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 26
Float on DOE Deliverables Proposed Date at CD-2 Float Corrector Assembled and Ready for Installation Feb-18 0 1. 3 Full Assembly and Verification of Ring, Cage and Barrel Sep-17 1 Mo 1. 4 FPS Delivered at Mayall, Unpacked and Verified Aug-18 0 1. 5 Delivery of Complete Fiber System to I&T Mar-18 6 Mo 1. 6 Unit 10 Spectrograph Test and Calibration Complete Dec-18 2 Mo 1. 7 ICS Production System Complete Jun-18 0 1. 8 Target Selection Pipeline Operational at Scale Apr-19 5 Mo 1. 9 Telescope Ready for DESI Hardware Installation Dec-17 0 1. 9 Corrector Installed Feb-18 0 1. 9 Focal Plane Assembly Installed Nov-18 0 1. 9 Start of Commissioning Mar-19 0 1. 9 All Commissioning Tasks Complete Jul-19 24 Mo CD-4 Jul-21 WBS Milestone/Deliverable 1. 2 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 27
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Project Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 28
Not Included in Project Cost • Foreign and Common Fund contributions • Operating Costs H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 29
Level 1 Costs & Range • DOE BASE TPC (TY$): 41. 7 M • Cost estimate assumes currently understood funding profile • Assumes foreign participation at expected level • Cost is $54. 63 M TY$M PEP Table 11 FY 15 OPC Base NOAO Pass-thru and Mayall Prep 1. 48 OPC Contingency TEC Base FY 16 TPC H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 - FY 18 - - - 1. 48 0. 91 - 1. 12 0. 06 4. 83 11. 79 8. 65 6. 28 32. 52 1. 71 9. 25 0. 82 11. 78 14. 47 20. 33 10. 90 54. 63 2. 44 - 6. 48 3. 80 Total 0. 53 - 2. 43 FY 19 - 0. 97 TEC Contingency FY 17 - DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 7. 67 1. 18 30
MIE Funding • OPC (Other Project Costs) Base — Includes all FY 15 and Q 1 -FY 16 DOE effort and materials — Includes $500 K (FY 16) and $1000 K (FY 17) for Mayall prep work by Kitt Peak employees as “pass-through” (DOE $ LBNL NOAO) — Excludes R&D work in FY 14 • TEC (Total Estimated Costs) Base — Includes Q 2 -FY 16 and thereafter until equipment delivery • TPC = OPC Base + TEC Base + Contingency — Contingency is $11 M (37% of TPC) — Includes risk from shortfall in UK, France, Spain… funding H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 31
Operating costs (from research budget) • $3. 4 M (pass-through to NOAO) • + $3. 0 M (instrument/pipeline) in FY 14 dollars • Starts in FY 18, includes installation H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 32
DOE Project Base Cost at Level 2 WBS by Year (Then Year $K) WB S 1. 1 1. 2 FY 15 OPC Management, SE, QA FY 16 TEC OPC TEC - 1957 0 983 - 3221 - 500 - - 5234 - 151 - 410 - 364 - - 981 484 195 43 772 - 4856 - 3029 - 89 9468 107 - - 1320 267 263 1. 5 Fibre System 1. 6 Spectrographs Instr Control Syst contingency) TEC - Focal Plane Totals (without OPC 39 1. 4 1. 9 TEC TPC - 0 - 249 Data Systems System Level AI&T OPC FY 19 - 1623 - - 1. 3 1. 8 TEC FY 18 238 351 - 1088 - 1342 - 1425 Corrector Cage, Ring, & Barrel 1. 7 OPC FY 17 37 - - - 55 62 946 - 606 - 19 6 1 369 - 604 - 234 - 546 6067 0 2370 71 33 - 368 - 604 - 747 25 45 427 156 908 147 2431 2318 3800 4019 14276 1477 967 533 4832 908 11790 2431 8655 3800 6278 41672 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 33
DESI DOE Funding Profile • Base cost taken from the resource loaded P 6/Cobra • Contingency on DOE cost is $13 M: $7 M from Basis of Estimate uncertainty plus $3. 2 M from risk assessment, and $2. 8 M from ($1. 4 M/yr project office burn rate) X (24 months schedule float to CD-4) Then Year $K FY 15 Direct OPC 1, 477 Direct TEC Total Base FY 16 533 FY 18 FY 19 TOTAL 908 2, 431 3, 800 967 4, 832 11, 790 8, 655 6, 278 32, 522 2, 445 5, 366 12, 698 Contingency($K) - 1, 117 Contingency (%) 0 TPC FY 17 2, 445 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 21 11, 086 10, 078 41, 672 1, 771 9, 245 14 83 6, 483 14, 469 9, 149 822 12, 956 8 31. 1 20, 331 10, 900 54, 628 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 34
DESI DOE Funding Profile • Base cost taken from the resource loaded P 6/Cobra • Contingency on DOE cost is $13 M: $7 M from Basis of Estimate uncertainty plus $3. 2 M from risk assessment, and $2. 8 M from ($1. 4 M/yr project office burn rate) X (24 months schedule float to CD-4) Then Year $K FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 Direct OPC 2, 628 453 862 Direct TEC 1000 4, 347 Total Base 3, 628 Contingency($K) Contingency (%) TPC FY 19 TOTAL 1, 596 2, 526 8, 815 11, 638 11, 901 4, 721 32, 857 4, 800 12, 500 13, 497 7, 247 41, 672 0 500 2, 000 6, 803 3, 653 12, 956 0 10. 4 16 50. 4 31. 1 3, 628 5, 300 14, 500 20, 300 10, 900 54, 628 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 FY 18 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 35
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 36
Risk Management on DESI • Risk Management Plan Status: — Risk Management Plan (DESI-0324) in place since October, 2013 — Risk Register (DESI-0376) is updated periodically • Currently 67 listed risk items • 28 retired risks — Project principals are engaged in the process • Consistent with best practices — “PMBOK Guide” ANSI Standard (ANSI/PMI 08 -001 -2012) — DOE “Risk Management Guide” (DOE G 413. 3 -7 A, 2011) • Management of risk is a continuous process throughout the life cycle of the project H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 37
Roles and Responsibilities • Project Manager and Director (PM/PD) — PM performs the risk management process • Monitors risks • Executes risk response plans • Manages risk contingency — PD Owns risks which are above L 2 M, e. g. external to project • Level 2 Managers (L 2 M) and their teams — Identify risks, assign probabilities and impacts, develop risk response plans as appropriate, participate in RMB — L 2 M Own all internal risks • DESI Tech Board functions as Risk Management Board — Reviews and updates Risk Register; retiring or modifying existing risks, identifying new risks as project progresses — Meets bi-monthly H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 38
Operation of Risk Register • • • Risk Register is under configuration control (DESI-0376) Descriptive information (green), with quantitative estimates (red), is entered into register Spreadsheet includes macros to evaluate risk rank and to perform Monte Carlo analysis Enter probability that the risk event will occur here H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 39
Entry of Risks into Register Enter expected cost impacts here H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 Enter expected schedule impacts here DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 40
Monte Carlo Calculation • Spreadsheet compares the risk probability with a randomly generated number • If greater, then it generates a cost based on a weighting over the three numbers entered • It then sums all the costs so generated • Process is repeated a number of times (~5, 000) and a histogram of cost vs. frequency of occurrence is generated • A plot of cumulative frequency vs. cost is generated from this and the 90% point is taken as the required contingency to account for our risk items • A similar calculation is done for schedule float H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 41
Monte Carlo Results • Risk cost contingency is 3. 2 M$ at 90% confidence • Similarly, the Monte Carlo requires float of 18 months to have a 90% confidence of meeting CD-4 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 42
Spreadsheet also calculates Risk Rank Risk probability High Moderately high Moderately low Low > 50% 25 – 50% 10 – 25% < 10% Cost Schedule Scope / Performance LOW LOW < $10 k < 1 wk MEDIUM LOW LOW < $50 k < 3 wks HIGH MEDIUM LOW $200 k <6 wks HIGH MEDIUM Unlimited > 6 wks Negligible Low Medium High Risk Impact • Risks are ranked based on this matrix • Project plan was adjusted early to mitigate some high rank risks for example — Added manpower to fiber production to move off CP — Purchased additional equipment on project • High and Medium risks remain — Identified potential response plans, reduced impact where reasonable, this is a continuous process H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 43
Response to Identified Risks • Identifying risks allow us to make plans today which will reduce the likelihood of problems in the future — E. g. since damage to a lens would be a disaster for the project, we must take special care to protect them during manufacture • Identification of risks also helps to manage the project cost — Risks may be either included in the project plan or carried in the risk registry • Carried risks are uncertain but can be mitigated — The Monte Carlo helps to determine the amount of contingency appropriate for the project • Trades between cost/schedule vs scope/performance may also be made H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 44
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 45
DESI Holds Contingency in 3 Areas • Cost Contingency -- We hold back a portion of our available funding to account for errors in the cost estimation process, the added cost of unexpected events as calculated from the Risk Registry, and the cost of maintaining the Project Office through the schedule float • Schedule Contingency -- We have included schedule float between the early finish delivery of the DESI instrument equipment and our baseline CD-4 (as developed from the Risk Registry), as well as additional float applied to selected subsystems, (e. g. optics) • Scope Contingency -- Threshold and objective KPP’s are specified to ensure that minimum science requirements are met with high probability even in the event of schedule or funding difficulty, but that allow enhanced science in the more probable case of nominal project success H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 46
Cost Contingency Analysis • Total three components of cost contingency — Cost Estimate Contingency • Accounts for added cost due to incorrect cost estimates, i. e. imprecision of estimates put into BOE sheets — Risk Contingency • Accounts for added cost if risk events are realized • Developed from Monte Carlo analysis on risk registry — Maintain Project Office through float to CD-4 • Cost estimate contingency determination — Level 2 managers estimaterial and labor costs and enter into Primavera P 6 schedule — Level 2 managers generate Basis of Estimate (BOE) sheets at WBS level 3 to document costing process — Each level 3 material and labor cost is classified according to one of a list of maturity classifications (See DESI-0314) — Standard contingency values are assigned based on the chosen maturity classification — The BOE results are summarized in DESI-0314 and Cost Estimate Contingency is calculated H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 47
Summary of Labor Contingency Rules from DESI-0314 • L 1 – Complete: 0% contingency on items that have been completed or funded by an R&D account or “named positions”, eg. Project Manager, System Engineer, etc • L 2 – Level of Effort: 20% contingency, for example the task of overseeing the fabrication and testing of an electronics component. • L 3 – Established Procedure: 20‐ 30% contingency for a very similar task that has been done before and has documented time durations; . • L 4 – Defined Procedure: 25‐ 40% contingency for a task that is conventional, well defined and tends to be repeatable with good confidence but can expect small fluctuations; for example, testing of production electronics components (most boards take the same unit time, a few take longer • L 5 – Similar Procedure: 30‐ 50% contingency for a task that is not yet completely defined, but is analogous to past activities; for example, a fabrication activity similar to, but not exactly like, items fabricated for other activities • L 6 – Expert Opinion: 50‐ 70% contingency for a task that is not yet well defined. H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 48
Summary of Materials Contingency Rules from DESI-0314 • M 1 – Complete or R&D: 0% contingency on items that have been completed, or for acquisitions funded by an R&D account. • M 2 – Multiple Quotes/Travel: 10‐ 15% contingency on items that have already been purchased within the past year or for which there is a recent (within 1 year) catalog price or firm quote and for with more than one potential vendor. • M 3 – Single Vendor Quote: 15‐ 25% contingency on items that have been purchased at least once within the past two years or for which there is a recent catalog price or firm quote but for which there is only one likely vendor • M 4 – Preliminary Design: 25‐ 40% contingency on: items that can be readily estimated from a reasonably detailed but not completed design; items adapted from existing designs but with minor modifications, produced within the previous two years, with documented costs. A recent vendor survey based on a preliminary design belongs here. • M 5 – Conceptual Design: 40‐ 60% contingency on: items with a detailed conceptual level of design; items adapted from existing designs but with extensive modifications • M 6 – Novel Fabrication: 50‐ 70% contingency on items with unproven fabrication yields or e. g. a special‐order item or a single preferred vendor). • M 7 – Pre-conceptual Design: 70‐ 100% contingency on items that do not yet have a detailed conceptual design. H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 49
Required Risk Cost Contingency vs Confidence H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 50
Required Float vs Confidence H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 51
Cost Contingency Development • Cost Contingency generated from the Monte Carlo over the DESI Risk Registry $3. 2 M — Cost for 90% confidence • Cost Contingency developed from an analysis of the Basis of Estimate sheets $7. 0 M • Cost of DESI Project Office during schedule extension predicted by Risk Monte Carlo $2. 8 M — PD, PM, Cost Analyst, Ad Min — $1. 4 M/yr burn rate X 24 months float _______ Total Contingency Required $13. 0 M H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 52
Scope Contingency • Reduce number of spectrographs manufactured • Number of positioners is also proportionally reduced • Can be done anytime, but after CD-3 with proportionate diminishing returns • Can meet threshold KPP’s with as few as 6 spectrographs • Can be reversed if funding situation improves • Can recover up to $5 M of cost and 6 months of schedule — Maximum cost savings requires decision to be made by CD-3 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 53
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 54
Major Procurements • Corrector glass boule procurement — Fused Silica blanks for C 1, C 2, C 3, C 4 --- Complete — N-BK 7 for ADC lenses ---- Fabrication complete; expect to receive Aug 2015 • Corrector lens grinding and polishing — Grinding complete on C 1, C 2, C 3, C 4; polishing in process — ADC polishing vendor under contract • Corrector lens AR coating — RFP closed; in negotiations with apparent awardee • Cage, Barrel, and Ring fabrication — Design complete; RFP for fabrication imminent • Hexapod manufacture — Requirements finalized; RFP imminent H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 55
Major Procurements • Focal plate structure manufacture (petals and ring) — Final design nearly complete • Fibre view camera and lens assembly — A fully operational prototype of this system has been developed and extensively tested — A production unit will be procured to enable software upgrades to be developed and tested without impacting science data collection • Robotic fibre positioners (DOE with substantial university and foreign in-kind and cash contribution) — Final design complete and prototypes tested; production tooling in dev’t — DOE with contributions from U. Mich, and EPFL (Switzerland) • Optical Fibre — Ready to purchase following extensive testing H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 56
Major Procurements • Spectrograph camera assemblies — Vendor is in late stages of development; final testing in 2015 October • Spectrograph bench and integration — Vendor under contract to complete prototype spectrograph; completes in 2016 August • Spectrograph cryostat mechanical fabrication (foreign in-kind contribution) — First prototype complete; on schedule for delivery of three units for the prototype spectrograph in 2016 May • Spectrograph pulse tube coolers — Prototype purchased and tested; ready for purchase of production units H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 57
Major Procurements • Spectrograph CCD detectors — Final design complete; devices currently in fabrication • Instrument Control System computer equipment — Fully defined; ready to purchase • Targeting data disk storage — Targeting data storage requires the use of specialized disk equipment compatible with the NERSC facility H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 58
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 59
Baseline Change Control • Baseline Change Proposals (BCPs) will be approved as necessary to modify the baseline • Controlled via defined thresholds (see following slide) • Two Change Control Boards: — The Berkeley Site Office board consists of the DESI Federal Project Director (chair), the BSO Site Office Manager, the DESI Project Director, and the DESI Project Manager. — The DESI board consists of the DESI Project Director (chair), the DESI Project Manager, the DESI Project Scientists and the DESI System Engineer (SE). • Regardless of threshold, all technical changes that significantly affect hardware must be documented and approved by the Project Manager and System Engineer. H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 60
Change Control Thresholds (1) (Table 12 in PEP) Approved By Scope Cost* CC Level 0 Change CC Level 1 Change Deputy Director for Science Acquisition Executive CC Level 2 Change CC Level 3 Ch’g Federal Project Contractor Project Director* Manager Changes in scope affecting technical Any change in scope Any changes that performance of WBS and/or performance negatively impact Level 2 components that affects the ability to achieving the Objective that do not affect the Changes to technical satisfy the mission or Threshold Key KPPs or Major changes scope below the FPD need or is not in Performance Parameters in technology or thresholds conformance with the (KPPs) as defined in the approach to Level 2 current approved PEP WBS components Section 2. 1 Any increase in TPC, TEC, or OPC of the project as stated in Table 6 Cumulative allocation of $5 M of contingency Any cumulative change of ≥$1 M in a WBS Level 2 cost shown in Any use of Table 6 or, or management reserve cumulative allocation of ≥$1 M in contingency * Any contingency usage will require the approval by the FPD or Federal personnel. The FPD has the authority to allocate contingency to management reserve through the change control process. H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 61
Change Control Thresholds (2) (Table 13 in PEP) Approved By CC Level 0 Change CC Level 1 Change Deputy Director for Science Acquisition Executive CC Level 2 Change CC Level 3 Ch’g Federal Project Director* Contractor Project Manager Schedule Any changes to Level 1 milestone as shown in Any delay in CD-4, Table 7 (with the project completion date exception of CD-4). as stated in Table 7 ≥ 6 month changes to Level 2 milestone shown in Table 8 ≥ 3 month delay to a Level 2 milestone date shown in Table 8 Any delay below the FPD threshold in a Level 2 milestone date as shown in Table 8 Funding Any changes to funding profile as shown in Table 11 that negatively impacts the Performance Baseline ** After the cumulative threshold has been reached and the next higher change authority has been notified and has approved the changes, the cumulative cost thresholds will reset. H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 62
• DESI Project Organization • Management Strategy • DESI WBS Overview • DESI Schedule • DESI Cost Summary • Risk Management • Contingency Analysis • Major Procurements • Change Control • Summary H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 63
Summary • DESI has a strong and experienced team • The project scope is well defined and organized • We are at final design in most areas • Project risks are well defined and are actively being mitigated • Detailed cost estimates have created a robust cost baseline • Resource loaded schedule developed and EVMS in operation • Project Hazards are well defined (see p-HAR); Safety Plan is in place • The DESI project is ready for CD-2 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 64
WBS 1. 9. 5 Mayall Operations pass-thru funding • DOE/NSF-negotiated funding of the portions of the Mayall operating budgets for FY 18 and FY 19 that are not covered by DESI-specific funding in WBS 1. 9. 2 or by NSF funding. H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 65
DOE Support of Mayall FY 14 $K FY 15 DESI DOE TPC MIE-OPC (pass through) FY 16 FY 17 500 1, 000 FY 18 FY 19 MIE-TEC 2, 000 3, 400 Non-Project DOE Ops Funding NSF Support for Mayall 3, 400 2, 900 2, 400 1, 400 Total Mayall Funding 3, 400 3, 400 H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 0 66
Top Level Schedule H. Heetderks 06/17/2015 DESI CD-2 Director’s Review BO 5. 1 67
- Slides: 68