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Week in Review September 7, 2020 LAST WEEK IN REVIEW Stocks finished the week lower, as investors took profits after an August rally that left the significant benchmarks at or near all-time highs. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index suffered the largest losses, declining more than 3%, but has still produced significant gains on a year-to-date basis. The S&P 500 Index also remained positive for the year, but the more narrowly focused Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped back into negative territory for 2020. Value stocks lost ground but held up better than their growth counterparts.
LAST WEEK IN REVIEW - Con’t Although the S&P 500 finished Monday with modest losses, the benchmark still returned more than 7% in August, its best month since April. The market climbed on Tuesday and Wednesday, driven by some of the tech names that have propelled the recovery from the late-March lows. Apple continued to attract investor demand after a four-for-one stock split, and shares of video-conferencing company Zoom Video Communications surged after a strong earnings report. However, sentiment quickly shifted on Thursday as the S&P 500 fell 3. 5%, led lower by tech names. It was hard to identify a specific driver for the downturn. However, rumors that Softbank unwound a 4 billion dollar gamma trade, as well as investors simply concluded that some of the big tech names had become overvalued and that it was time to take profits. Traders also observed that some of the volatility experienced during the week could have come from the increasing use of options by investors who wanted to take advantage of potential gains in the market. Source: Hedgeye U. S. – MARKETS & ECONOMY A light week for economic data was highlighted by the Labor Department's monthly nonfarm payroll report, which showed that employers added 1. 4 million jobs in August, a number in line with consensus estimates. Temporary workers who were hired to complete this year's census made up 238, 000 of the total. Still, employment gains were also solid in retail, professional and business services, and the leisure and hospitality sectors. However, the unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey, fell more than expected, dropping to 8. 4% in August from 10. 2% in July. About 48% of the jobs lost during March and April have been recovered in the past four months. Initial unemployment claims fell from the prior week but, at a seasonally adjusted 881, 000, remained elevated as many employers are still struggling to recover from the economic damage caused by the pandemic. 2
U. S. EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCE – As of close Friday, September 4, 2020 Index Friday's Close Week's Change % Change YTD DJIA 28, 133. 31 -520. 56 -1. 42% S&P 500 3, 426. 96 -81. 05 6. 07% Nasdaq Composite 11, 313. 13 -382. 50 26. 09% S&P Mid. Cap 400 1, 946. 51 -48. 41 -5. 65% Russell 2000 1, 536. 12 -42. 22 -7. 93% Source: Bloomberg. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific security. Past performance cannot guarantee future results. US YIELDS & BONDS The sell-off in equities, month-end portfolio rebalancing, and Federal Reserve debt purchases drove the yield of the benchmark 10 -year U. S. Treasury note lower early in the week. However, demand for Treasuries waned after the release of Friday's employment report, and the 10 -year yield finished little changed for the week. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. ) The broad municipal bond market posted modestly negative returns amid elevated levels of issuance and underperformed the Treasury rally, as the pace of cash flows into municipal bond funds slowed. Traders I spoke with noted that California's roughly $2. 5 billion general obligation bond deal was met with solid investor demand (I guess investors are betting all those state taxes will pay those bonds). New issuance in both the investment-grade and high yield corporate bond markets was subdued ahead of the Labor Day weekend. Solid manufacturing data in the U. S. , Europe, and China appeared to boost investor sentiment in the investment-grade market, and traders said high yield bonds held up relatively well in light trading despite the volatility in the equity market. US TREASURY MARKETS AND WEEKLY YIELD CHANGE – As of close Friday, September 4, 2020 3 Mth: 0. 00 bps to 0. 10% 10 -yr: 0. 00 bps to 0. 72% 2 -yr: +0. 01 bps to 0. 14% 30 -yr: -0. 03 bps to 1. 47% 5 -yr: +0. 03 bps to 0. 30% Source: Bloomberg. Yields are for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific security. Yield changes are of one week. Past performance cannot guarantee future results. 3
INTERESTING NEWS OVERSEAS European shares pulled back in sympathy with the technology-led decline in U. S. equities. However, news of merger talks between Spanish lenders Bankia and Caixa. Bank helped to curb losses. In localcurrency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended the week 1. 76% lower. Germany's Xetra DAX Index fell 1. 46%, France's CAC 40 slid 0. 76%, Italy's FTSE MIB declined 2. 27%, and the U. K. 's FTSE 100 Index dropped 2. 76%. An early estimate of eurozone consumer prices showed inflation of -0. 2% in August—the first decline since May 2016—heaping more pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to increase stimulus. Speculation that the ECB would have to act soon to counter a stronger euro had mounted before the release of the latest data on consumer prices. The euro's strength is worrying policymakers, who warned that further appreciation would weigh on exports, drag down prices, and hold back the economic recovery, according to the Financial Times newspaper. Evidence of this unease emerged earlier when the euro briefly rallied to more than USD 1. 20 for the first time since 2018, prompting ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane to say the euro-dollar rate "does matter" for monetary policy. The consensus calls for the ECB to keep its policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. There is growing pessimism that the U. K. and E. U. trade talks next week could break the impasse between the two sides after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U. K. would look to double its fishing quota. E. U. officials said the demand would lead to a loss of one in three E. U. fishing boats. The Times newspaper said senior government officials put the chances of a deal at 30% to 40% and that a breakthrough on the key issues of fisheries and state aid remains elusive. Source: The Guardian Over in the Land of the Rising Sun, Japanese stocks posted gains for the week, despite the sell-off on Friday. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 323 points (1. 4%) and closed at 23, 205. 43. The widely watched market benchmark remained underwater (-1. 9%) for the year-to-date period. The large -cap TOPIX Index and the TOPIX Small Index, broader measures of Japanese stock market performance, posted similar-sized weekly gains. The yen weakened slightly and traded near JPY 106 per U. S. dollar. The yield on 10 -year Japanese government bonds declined for the week as the Bank of Japan (Bo. J) reaffirmed its commitment to an ultra-accommodative monetary policy. 4
INTERESTING NEWS OVERSEAS – Con’t Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett, known as a consummate value investor, made headlines when his company announced that it had invested USD 6. 2 billion in five of Japan's major trading houses. Berkshire has acquired more than 5% of the shares in Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui & Company, and Sumitomo during approximately the past 12 months, and could increase the position to 9. 9%. These trading houses have diversified businesses, including commodity exploration, that could be prime beneficiaries of rising inflation, spurred by global central bank stimulus totaling more than USD 9 trillion, or higher oil/commodity prices as global economic conditions improve. Additionally, most investors agree that these stocks are undervalued (i. e. , trade below book value), generate stable, above-average cash flow, and would benefit from further U. S. dollar weakness. The purchases represent one of Berkshire Hathaway's largest-ever investments in Japan and yet adhere to Buffett's penchant for value investing. THE WEEK AHEAD The markets are closed today for Labor Day. We will resume trading tomorrow. In the U. S. , the consumer price report for August is set to highlight a further recovery in the inflation rate from May's four-and-a-half-year low as demand continues to rebound from the coronavirus shock. At the same time, investors will focus on the latest weekly claims report for further evidence the labor market continues its recovery. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since the effects of the pandemic started to be felt back in March. Other notable publications include producer prices, JOLTs job openings, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, the government's monthly budget statement, and the final reading of wholesale inventories. Call us at LCP if you have any questions. Have a great week. Stephen Colavito, Jr. Lakeview Capital Partners, LLC Managing Director 1201 Peachtree Street NE Chief Investment Officer – Private Wealth Suite 1850 Chief Market Strategist Atlanta, GA 30361 (404) 418 -7776 (office) (404) 313 -1388 (mobile) Past performance is not indicative of future results. Lakeview is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. This review does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any interest in any investment vehicle, and should not be relied on as such. Securities offered through SA Stone Wealth Management, Inc, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services provided through Lakeview Capital Partners, LLC ("LCP"). LCP is not affiliated with SA Stone Wealth Management. More information about the firm can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request by calling 404 -841 -2224 or by e-mailing [email protected] com The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have incorrectly received this document and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication incorrectly, please notify us immediately by e-mail and delete the original message. This message is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities or any other financial instrument. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 5