Week 12 3 Policy Issue III Joint Interdiction

第十二週 /Week 12 政策議題（3）聯合截擊 Policy Issue III: Joint Interdiction 拒敵於彼岸 Opposite Shore n 擊敵於半渡 In the Strait n 毀敵於灘頭水際 Taiwanese Shore n 效益分析 Costs-effects Analysis n

Readings… n Shlapak, David A. , David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson. 2009. “Chapter 5 The Ultimate Roll of the Dice: A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, ” A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China -Taiwan Dispute. Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, 91122. http: //www. rand. org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG 888. pdf n Watts, Barry D. 2011. “The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs, ” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 35 -39. http: //www. csbaonline. org/wpcontent/uploads/2011/06/2011. 06. 02 -Maturing-Revolution-In. Military-Affairs 1. pdf

既然要用飛彈，用什麼樣的「飛彈」? >6. 0 M 1. 0 M> http: //www. defenseindustrydaily. com/images/ORD_NSM_Kongsberg_Test_Launch_Coastal_lg. jpg http: //www. saabgroup. com/NR/rdonlyres/586885 C 8 -ED 0 C-4 FE 5 -948 B-F 34756518 BD 4/3712/untitled 1. jpg Ballistic Missiles Cruise Missiles 30~200 M <10 m http: //infosyiah. files. wordpress. com/2008/03/hizbullah. jpg http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e 7/SCUD_2. JPG/800 px-SCUD_2. JPG http: //www. acig. org/artman/uploads/bphoto 08_001. jpg

WHY? ? http: //kosova. org/pics/nato/t 55 -2. jpg 射程優先：使我方無需集中、暴露 http: //iconicphotos. files. wordpress. com/2009/05/highway-of-death. jpeg

600 km… 飛彈不能太貴… ü破壞力 Destructiveness ü彈雨突防 Breakthrough Number!!! >10, 000!!! 射程：不是愈遠愈好… http: //www. stratfor. com/files/mmf/7/e/7 eff 3441 ac 5 c 4 f 51 ed 6 a 0 ce 14920 c 2 b 5092 af 489. jpg

設計基準 Standard 100 20, 000!!! http: //en. valka. cz/files/agm-130_184. jpeg 250 K/300 km… http: //nature-talk. com/locations/space/earth/images/solid-rocket-boosters. jpg 30 K/30 km… http: //media. defenseindustrydaily. com/images/ORD_GBU-39_SDB_Concept_Color_lg. jpg

設計基準 Standard http: //aviacia. ru/fighter/f/f 117_17. jpg 100 10, 000!!! 500 K/600 km… http: //nature-talk. com/locations/space/earth/images/solid-rocket-boosters. jpg http: //www. rocketryonline. com/jimball/harpoon/Sea_Launch. jpg 400 K/370 km… http: //ericpalmer. files. wordpress. com/2010/02/jassm. jpg

導引方式 Guidance

目標對象 Target Type http: // photos. igougo. com/images/p 144020 -Baghdad-Bunker_Jaber. jpg http: //defense-update. com/images_large 3/sdb_ii_34. jpg http: //warisboring. com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ins-hanit-missile-damage. jpg http: //media. defenseindustrydaily. com/images/ORD_GBU-53_SDB-II_Rendering_lg. jpg http: //upload. wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/1/1 f/San_Diego_Naval_Base. jpg

技術現況… http: //www. fas. org/man/dod-101/sys/land/mlrs-steelrain. jpg http: //www. globalsecurity. org/military/systems/munitions/images/cbu 97_33. jpg http: //www. fpif. org/files/3681/cluster-bombs%20 full%20 load. jpg? width=250 50 K/45 km… http: //album. udn. com/community/img/PSN_PHOTO/rexonhan/f_6738996_1. JPG

技術現況… http: //www. designation-systems. net/dusrm/agm-84 h. jpg http: //www. fas. org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/Tien-Kung. jpg http: //www. tpub. com/content/aviation/14313/img/14313_84_1. jpg http: //www. designation-systems. net/dusrm/bgm-109 abc. jpg http: //4. bp. blogspot. com/-o. Hh. LRLp. Z 8 b 4/Tc. Yuc 5 U 8 yg. I/AAAAA 5 M/RJEMZy. Lmip. M/s 1600/Hsiung+Feng+II+%2528 HF-2%2529+%2528 Brave+Wind+II%2529+is+an+anti-ship+missile+system+developed+by+the+Chungshan+Institute+of+Science+and+Technology+in+Taiwan. +e+%25282%2529. jpg

技術現況… http: //img 135. imageshack. us/i/201006123 f 6 ba 6 f 773 a 7 ac 7. jpg/ http: //cimg 2. 163. com/cnews/2006/4/29/200604291118232 b 6 e 3. jpg http: //www. wantchinatimes. com/newsphoto/2011 -05 -09/450/84504_002060004. 505. HF 3 -2_2011%E 8%B 3%87%E 6%96%99%E 7%85%A 7%E 7%89%87_copy 1. JPG http: //api. ning. com/files/*Lb-g. MMVMXKel. AEjmd. U 7 d. FBGya-BFGEXg. Fs. V 8 Lp. OWdh. Cy 121 V 9 Euqs. WQ 6 bg. Jf. ZCCs. GDLP 5 RGwtplkbrkoq. Olp. AEUf 0 Ff. JYn 7/2 E. jpg

這不就是「境外決戰」？ Decisive Battle Outside Territory? 採取快速而積極的軍事行動， 1981 將敵軍擊毀於境外，摧毀於戰 場縱深之後方基地，癱瘓其本 土軍事目標。(Strike the enemy before they can reach us! ) n n This is ～陳水扁，1999 my dream!! http: //b. blog. xuite. net/b/c/9/5/21340323/blog_1516401/txt/23212562/5. jpg 「決戰」：決定性戰鬥 「境外」：國境之外 http: //img. epochtimes. com/i 6/805201007261462. jpg

決戰？ Decisive Battle? 徹底擊毀敵人， 意即消滅相當高比例的敵人 n n n http: //www. great-victory 1945. ru/black_death_in_bayonet_attack. jpg 何種距離下， 可以產生決定性？ 投入的資源增加， 此一距離增加多少？ 相同資源投入下， 在何種距離下使用， 最有效？ http: //4. bp. blogspot. com/_IYGc_MWwkfw/ST 89 B 8 y. DTq. I/AAAAAh 0/a. Wkqa. CMESLI/s 400/820_musket_bayonet. jpg

境外？ Outside Territory? 彼岸 海峽 水際 http: //static. howstuffworks. com/gif/willow/the-china-sea 0. gif http: //www. stimson. org/images/china/Taiwan. Strait 3. JPG

效益分析 Costs-effects Analysis n 目標獲得？ Target Acquisition n 克服抵抗？ Counter Measure n 所需技術？ Seeker Technology n 政治風險？ Risk of Escalation http: //img. epochtimes. com/i 6/805201007261462. jpg

彼岸 Mainland http: //www. thewednesdayreport. com/twr/gulfwar/images/iraq 2003/march 25 -28/capt. 1048863857. iraq_us_war_ana 109. jpg

暴露，集中 Exposed, Concentrated http: //photos. igougo. com/images/p 144022 -Baghdad-Bunker_Jaber. jpg http: //www. priu. gov. lk/news_update/Images/2009/ltte_vehicle_mounted_guns. jpg http: //img 138. imageshack. us/img 138/2639/torgrdi 8. jpg http: //xairforces. com/images/country/iran/a-50 aew_iriaf_0003. jpg http: //iconicphotos. files. wordpress. com/2009/05/highway-of-death. jpeg

海峽 Strait http: //images. wangchao. net. cn/images/upload/images/military/1168918071007. jpg

1967年至 1992年發生的反艦飛彈攻擊 Anti-Ship Missiles Performance, 1967~1992 目標類型 沒有防禦能力的目標 命中率 擊沈 癱瘓 57. 5/63 =91. 3% 12 42 對具防禦能力 但未發揮功能的目標 對具防禦能力 且採取防禦作為的目標 26/38 =68. 4% 6 13 32/121 =26. 4% 13 16 艦隊戰術與海岸戰鬥，頁231 http: //www. royalnavy. mod. uk/upload/img_400/FKD_000064. jpg http: //www. navy. mil/navydata/policy/vision/vis 98/pg 25 -1. gif

水際 Near Beach http: //big 5. eastday. com: 82/gate/big 5/mil. eastday. com/m/20080214/images/01197590. jpg http: //epaper. taihainet. com/newspic/Upload. Files_6334/20071226092525423. jpg

簡直是活靶 Sitting Duck…… http: //www. defencetalk. com/pictures/data/3166/medium/HQ-7_61506 A. jpg http: //xairforces. com/images/country/iran/a-50 aew_iriaf_0003. jpg http: //www. afwing. com/combat/Falklands_War-20. htm

彼岸 海峽 水際 目標獲得 Target Acquisition 稍難 較難 容易 克服抵抗 Counter Measure 較難 稍難 容易 尋標技術 Seeker Technology 稍難 容易 容易 政治風險 Risk of Escalation n n http: //www. stimson. org/images/china/Taiwan. Strait 3. JPG

境外決戰的關鍵在本土決戰的準備 Outside Decision depends on Inside Preparations… http: //www. enemyforces. net/tanks/type 99. jpg http: //www. china-defense-mashup. com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/zlc 2000_06 ff. jpg http: //www. military-today. com/tanks/zbd_2000_light_tank. jpg http: //img 228. imageshack. us/img 228/5923/14040125111 ed 5 ca 42 cbb 2. jpg http: //steeljawscribe. com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/image/FF-skipbomb/b-25. jpg