Week 1 Tuesday 5 October Lecturer Jennifer Harper

Week 1 : Tuesday 5 October Lecturer: Jennifer Harper Topic: Introduction to foresight definitions, basic principles and concepts Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 1

Outline • • • Introduction to the course Foresight – science or art? Definitions and concepts Foresight’s defining features Foresight as an evolving concept and approach Context: key shaper of foresight Other shapers of foresight Foresight objectives by context Questions for discussion Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 2

Course outline Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 3

Foresight - Science or art? Foresight is an approach at overlap of three converging trends since mid-1990’s (Miles): – Futures Studies – shift from predictive to exploratory approaches, iteration and involvement of users for embedding /implementation. Since 1950’s Futures studies or “futurology” has not been considered an objective science but an art, a composition of imagination and subjective certainties …. an individual and a community – not to speak about the whole mankind – do not have only one future but indeterminately many possible, alternative ones. (Jouvenel – Strategic Planning – shift from rational to evolutionary approaches, uncertainty is the norm, economic progress linked to disruptive innovations, qualitative vs quantitative changes within stable structures; long-term planning discredited but still needed. – Policy Analysis – shift to open, participatory approach, knowledge is distributed and policy-makers have to find ways to capture it. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 4

Foresight: Science or Art Source: FOREN Guide Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 5

Definitions and concepts We need to distinguish between Foresight and : • Future Studies • Forecasting (US) • La Prospective (Fr) What Foresight is NOT: • An approach for predicting the future (prediction implies knowing aspect(s) of the future with certainty and precision. This is not possible in social contexts with qualitative rather than quantitative factors predominating). • A Panacea or universal cure Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 6

Definitions – Future Studies Future studies is a discipline that includes all forms of looking into the future, from trend extrapolation to utopia. (Mc. Hale). It is a study of the ways in which futures can happen. Future studies are the systematic identification and study of alternative futures to enhance our ability to identify the opportunities and mitigate the risks which alternative futures present. Future may be defined as a time to come: an array of possibilities emerging from conditions in the present. Forecast is an estimate of what might happen in the future - a likely occurrence, a description of a possible future based on the collection, analysis and synthesis of available pertinent data. Source: Prospectiva Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 7

Future studies Why: Complexity and dynamics of global change What and how: • predicting the future through trend analysis, surveys, statistical analysis, operational research, and systems research • Identifying scientific and technical trends and their societal impacts including ethical, sociological, and other considerations Types: negative vs positive and single vs alternative scenarios, systemic vs sectoral, Possible, probable, preferred, feasible, wildcard Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 8

Future Studies and Foresight • Core concept : studies aimed at exploring alternative futures (an array of possible futures that emerge from the interactions among trends and events in the present). Trend is defined as a measure that has been changing steadily, e. g. the trend in the last five years has been for more and more people to use mobile phones. • Individuals, groups, cultures are not set on a deterministic path towards a single unitary future, but by using their powers of foresight and decision-making, they can select from a wide range of future trajectories and outcomes. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 9

Critical Future Studies • Studies of futures that take as a primary consideration the analysis and reformulation of the way we know our world (epistemology), our worldview and the social construction of reality. Realisation that ‘limited prevailing cultural (Western) assumptions’ no longer work in facing future challenges. • Need for innovative responses to the crisis that has came to face human civilisation during the 20 th century. ‘Futures beyond dystopia’- to work toward consciously chosen futures, rather than drift further into crisis and devastation (Slaughter) Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 10

Forecasting A Forecast is “a probabilistic statement, on a relatively high confidence level, about the future” (Jantsch) A forecast is less certain than a prediction but more certain than conjecture or anticipation. It is not absolute and has probabilities attached – a best guess. Forecasting is predicting that an event will happen, to a defined extent, and sometimes with a defined probability. Forecasting is usually applied to short-term futures. • In the past it was the primary futures methodology – now just one of a range of tools • Use of time-series data from the past to explore likely path of future trends or possible occurrence of events • Now considered as one of the inputs of decision-making rather than stand-alone method Source: http: //www. foresightinternational. com. au Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 11

The U. S. Department of Energy's production forecasts for the non-OPEC Third World, a region which, in aggregate, has experienced very little drilling and shows no sign of peaking, causing the forecasts to be repeatedly revised upwards (Extract from http: //sepwww. stanford. edu/sep/jon/world-oil. dir/lynch/worldoil. html Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 12

Forecasting and Foresight A foresight process has three essential characteristics that distinguish it from forecasting: – It uses a multi-disciplinary approach of systemic inspiration, – The foresight procedure integrates the long-term dimension, past and future, – Foresight is a procedure that integrates breakdowns, such as ceiling effects (market saturation), technological breakthroughs. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 13

Source: Blueprints Draft Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation Report 14

Definitions – La Prospective • La Prospective is a term used by Michel Godet for a class of methods he developed for examining the future • French term originated with G. Berger • La Prospective is primarily a philosophy, an attitude, a way of life. By rejecting the idea that the future is predetermined, it invites us to look upon it as a land to be explored - the reason for watching and anticipating - and as a land to be built upon - the reason for policy and strategy. (Hugues de Jouvenel, Futuribles, Perspectives, 2004) Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 15

Foresight’s defining features • • Actor-based, participatory approach Multiple/alternative futures (La prospective) Consensus-building Application in strategic planning and decisionmaking Foresight is not just research of and on the future, it is the active act of mobilising the future in order to get to strategic action. It involves exploring and shaping the future. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 16

Foresight as an evolving concept and approach • Foresight, as a concept and approach, is itself subject to change. It has become a very popular concept and is being applied in range of different contexts. • Although it provides the tools for shaping the future, it is itself shaped by the same context on which it seeks to act. • Context is a prime shaper of foresight! Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 17

By Foresight we may be referring to different things!! By foresight we are referring to four different aspects related to future-oriented exploratory activity: • a range of tools and techniques • a systematic process • a mind-set • a capability/skill The current emphasis is on foresight as a process and how it interacts with the context. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 18

Foresight is traditionally defined as: 1. A tool or set of tools used “to survey as systematically as possible what chances for development and what options for action are open at present, and then follow up analytically to determine to what alternative future outcomes the developments would lead” [1] 2. More recently, it has been recognized that foresight is more than just a set of tools, and involves a process whereby the tools are just one element, interacting with human inputs of intellect, expertise and sector-specific knowledge. a process - “a systematic, participatory, future intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process”[2] [1] Martin B. R and Irvine J. (1989) Research Foresight Priority-Setting in Science [2] EU FOREN - Foresight for regional development—FOREN—A Practical Guide to Regional Futures http: //foren. jrc. es/ Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 19

Foresight as a Process Five essential elements: • Anticipation and projections of long-term developments • Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis • Forging new social networks • Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment • Implications for present-day decisions and actions Keenan, 2003 Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 20

5 C’s of the Foresight Process • Communication: bringing together disparate groups in a novel forum in which they can interact • Concentration on the longer term, forcing participants to look further into the future more than they might do otherwise • Co-ordination: so that different actors can form productive partnerships • Consensus: creating a shared vision of the future that participants would like to achieve • Commitment: ensuring that actors participate fully, and are able and willing to implement changes in light of foresight findings. Such commitment to a shared vision can become, to a large extent, a self-fulfilling prophecy Martin & Irvine, 1989 Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 21

The human dimension But foresight is essentially embodied in the actors involved in its design and implementation and may thus also be defined in relation to two key human attributes: 3. foresight as a philosophy or particular mindset/approach to life evident at the individual or group level. It separates the proactive from the reactive, the pathdependent from the path-breakers. 4. foresight as a capacity for contemplating, anticipating and coping with the future also evident at the individual or group level. It entails a set of skills which can be taught but presumes a mindset open to creative thinking and proactive exploration of the future. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 22

The human dimension This emphasis on the role of individual creativity in foresight is not new: “foresight is an art that requires much practice and where the ‘artists’ are scarce…. How foresight capability is developed is a conundrum. Particularly talented people emerge from time to time and quite unexpectedly; their talent can only be appreciated after the event by the nature of foresight itself. No one engaged in foresight activity is uniquely successful, which is further confirmation, were any needed, of the artistic nature of the activity”[1] • [1] Loveridge, D. (1996) Ideas in Progress, Paper No 5. Foresight, Technology Assessment and Evaluation Synergy or disjunction? www. les. man. ac. uk/PREST/Download/Denis/Amsterdam_wp 5. PDF Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 23

Foresight – the black box This definition highlights the dynamic link between the four elements and how one element drives the next in an interactive chain. (Cassingena Harper and Pace, 2004) Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 24

Foresight and Context The relationship between foresight and context is not oneway – it is two-way and interactive: • The foresight process aims to shape the context by deploying and developing a range of tools, techniques, skills and mindsets (foresight embedding). • The context in turn shapes foresight by orienting and adapting it to a particular complex of political, economic, socio-cultural, technological circumstances and by deploying it for a particular purpose (rationale), e. g. national vision and policy, city development, company strategy, . . . Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 25

Context • The context within which foresight is implemented affects its rationale and indeed how it is defined and types of foresight tools and techniques used. There a range of contexts within which foresight has been applied: – – – • Public /Private sector National/Regional/local Advanced/transition/ developing country Sectoral City foresight Company. The use of any thinking tool does not happen in a vacuum. The process takes place within a context – indeed, a number of contexts, which should influence thinker when solving the problem. (G. Pace, 2004) Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 26

Other shaping factors • • • Objectives and expected outputs (product vs process) Topics/Orientation Sponsors and clients Implementing agency Budget Participants (Experts /Laypersons) Structures Tools and techniques Knowledge Pool Timeframes Time Horizons (5 -20 years) Extent of consultation Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 27

Foresight Objectives • • • Wire up the system of innovation (B. Martin) Identify strategic intelligence (trends, scenarios) Provide strategic vision based on consensus Map and enhance local capacities and skills Inform policy-making - design/redesign of policy Build/re-align networks of knowledgeable agents Break down barriers (e. g. industry-academia) Embed long-term perspective + foresight culture Target better and prioritise national resources To guide present-day decisions Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 28

National Foresight in advanced economies • National competitiveness • Priority-setting for strategic investments in research in science and technology • Critical technologies exercises • Systemic foresight • Use of delphi and panels • Iterative: several rounds (Japan, UK) Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 29

Japan • 1970’s Japan – First round of technology foresight and now into 7 th round: Future Technology in Japan up to 2030 • Use of Delphi to identify critical technologies • 14 sub-panels, 4, 400 participants, 16 fields • Sponsors: Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and the Council of Science and Technology (CST). Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 30

France • France (1995) – identification of Key Technologies up to 2005 and to position the relative strengths of France and Europe versus world competition. • Co-nomination of experts • 8 thematic sub-committees, 150 experts and 9 key areas – internet forum • Sponsor: Ministry of Industry Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 31

National Foresight in transition economies • Wiring up national system of innovation • Defining appropriate RTDI policy strategies • Identifying priorities for research funding allocations • More panel-based, delphi less popular • Drawing on similar exercises in advanced countries • Still in first round phase Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 32

Czech Republic – first technology foresight exercise 2001 • To define key research directions having high potential of contributing to a favourable economic development and to the fulfilment of social needs of the society • Areas to be funded by the national research programme • Thematic Panels identified 600 key research directions and recommended 19 cross-cutting sub-programmes • Sponsor: Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport http: //www. foresight. cz/www/? lang=1 Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 33

Transnational Foresight in transition economies • e. FORESEE(2001) and FORETECH(2002) are examples of more recent generation of foresight involving both national and transnational foresight activity • Emphasis on RTDI policy responses to the accession challenge • Sponsors: EU Commission and national governments • e. FORESEE – focus on exchange of foresight experiences in three small countries in accession phase (Cyprus, Malta, Estonia) • FORETECH – focus on transfer of foresight experience from Czech Rep and Hungary to Bulgaria and Romania • Foresight Bridge Initiative linking the two projects to exploit exchange of experiences and identify new forms of transnational foresight activity Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 34

Regional Foresight • Regional Foresight is the implementation of anticipation, participation, networking, vision & action at a reduced territorial scale, where proximity factors become determinant. • RF is the application of foresight methods to inform and orient decisions that are taken at sub national level. This may be a region of a federal state or otherwise, a metropolitan area, or some other sub national aggregation or local system of actors. The important thing is for there to be a minimal degree of local identity and political leverage available. Source: Foren Guide Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 35

Regional Foresight • Regional disparities: addressing more specific regional challenges, strengths and weakness and focusing on specific priorities • Political leverage (disenchantment with national politics, empowerment) • Access to resources • Local infrastructure and capital • Regional innovation clusters and growth poles Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 36

Regional Foresight FOREN (Foresight for Regional Development) • The main objective of FOREN is to promote effective integration of Foresight processes into regional development policy and strategy planning. In addition, subsidiary objectives include: to take stock of the extent to which Foresight has impacted on regional development policy and; to cultivate a sustainable Foresight mentality in regional development policy circles. • Sponsor: EU Commission • 4 lead partners and 22 other partners representing regions in UK, De, Sp, It, Ire, Neths, F, Fin, Hu. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 37

Corporate Foresight • Distinguish between foresight in the private sector and by the private sector (as a consultancy business) – but this distinction increasingly blurred as large corporations and consultancies combine both types. • Important role of private corporations and consultancies in developing futures methodologies and approaches (RAND) for both public and private foresight activity. • Use of foresight by large corporations (prevalent since 1950’s) to identify cutting edge technologies and new markets, maintain competitive advantage, long-term strategic planning • More recently in smaller firms for re-structuring, switch to long-term planning. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 38

Corporate Foresight RAND Corporation, nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. • In the 1950’s RAND introduced a range of policy analysis tools including alternative scenarios (to envision a wider range of plausible futures), scenario development and the Delphi technique (Herman Kahn and Olaf Helmer). These tools were developed for both national security and advanced business planning purposes. • 1980’s a major study on water resource policy for the Dutch government that helped set the standard in the early 1980 s for policy analysis studies. • Uncertainty-sensitive planning and assumption-based planning these methods encourage strategists to face up to the full dimensions of uncertainty and define strategies that seek to shape the future environment, prepare for well-recognized possible shifts, hedge against what might arise as shocks, and establish signposts warning of major shifts or shocks. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 39

RAND Europe provides policymakers with an understanding of how best to manage contemporary research and development, for developing and using tools for: • understanding and implementing foresight (integrating forecasting and backcasting), • describing how the stakeholders in education and innovation systems interact (facilitating getting not only to agreement but also to understanding), and • structuring analytic comparisons of the different natural policy experiments being conducted across the world (advancing the art of benchmarking). Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 40

Foresight by/in the Private Sector The Corporate Foresight Network is a community of corporate foresight officers and professional futurists from leading companies around the world, who practice the art of peering into the future as part of their strategy process. Ericsson Foresight is a networked "think-tank“ of future thinkers, institutes and academics world-wide. Focus on following themes: – Understanding use and users, work-leisure balance, ageing – The future of societies, super cities, digital divide, demography – Emerging and disruptive technologies, biotech and IT – Future business in eco-sustainable, health care, new media Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 41

FORESIGHT IN TRANSITION Foresight as Policy or for Policy From full-scale foresight to more embedded activity More systemic than systematic More project-focused Varying levels of intensity Societal dialogue and democratisation More meaningful stakeholder engagement End-users as active participants Timeless live dialogue

Systemic Concerns Creative system disruption Drivers of structural change Arena/Space, Outreach and Coordination role Wired-up systems Open+social innovation Knowledge failures (HE/R) Robust, evidenced-based policies Globalisation and multilevel policy coherence

Foresight and Context: Creative system disruption Recommended long-term agenda for creative system disruption Use of foresight as a vision-setting and policy coordination device as well as a catalyst for systemic disruption. Optimising European Society’s Rich Assets: investments in SSH, cogsci and complexities as drivers of social change and system transformation; Transforming Europe’s Research System by addressing knowledge system failure

Multi-level activity Recognition of growing interconnection and dynamics between drivers of change and different levels of policy-making: Meta – systemic – global Supranational – multinational National – governance – policies Regional – cities – local development Higher education - University – science parks Corporate – innovation clusters

Clustered Themes emerging Climate change, global warming & environmental issues and the shift to the knowledge-based bioeconomy Rural communities Depletion of energy resources Health, infectious diseases, food and security Key Technologies and Converging Technologies

Topics for Individual Assignments 1. In distinguishing between the terms foresight, future studies, forecasting and la prospective, identify the points of overlap and divergence and how these impact on foresight practice. 2. “No tool should serve as a substitute for reflection or a check on freedom of choice” Discuss. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 47

Individual assignments and group presentations • Please start thinking about your individual assignments – you can choose from the topics at the end of each lecture and you can also choose your own topic in consultation with me or Gordon. • Please also start thinking about group powerpoint presentations – you can address any topic but make it interesting and creative and confirm it with me. • Please choose a different theme for your group presentation from your individual assignment topic Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 48

Topics for Individual assignments Topics that can be addressed apart from set questions at the end of lecture: • Evaluation or impact assessment of a major foresight activity • Effective engagement /outreach to policy-makers and society • Emerging themes in foresight like ethical issues, systemic and/or adaptive foresight, Higher Education or university foresight, regional foresight, • Emerging tools: disruption scenarios, success scenarios, on-line approaches and horizon scanning. Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 49

References • • http: //forera. jrc. es/fta/intro. html http: //www. efmn. info http: //cordis. europa. eu/foresight/home. htm http: //www. eranet-forsociety. net/For. Society http: //www. costa 22. org/ http: //forlearn. jrc. es/index. htm http: //www. unido. org/doc/12296 http: //www. futurreg. net/ Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 50

jharper@vol. net. mt Malta Council for Science and Technology www. mcst. org. mt Foresight Modules M. A. in Creativity and Innovation 51