WEATHERRELATED DECISION MAKING Welcome to WeatherRelated Decision Making

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING Welcome to Weather-Related Decision. Making for General Aviation Pilots Flight 2 – Alliance, Nebraska to Yankton, South Dakota STOP You MUST view this program using the SLIDE SHOW feature of Power. Point. If you don’t use the SLIDE SHOW then the slides will not appear in the correct sequence, and you’ll just get a big mess. Start the SLIDE SHOW now by clicking on the VIEW tab on the menu bar, and then selecting “Slide Show”. You must also have internet access in order for the videos to be downloaded. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 1

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING Complete a Flight - Instructions • • Now let’s put things together in a series of flights in which you need to be aware of changing weather conditions, and you need to consider all the factors related to an in-flight diversion. Each flight has been divided into a series of segments. At the end of each segment you will see a video clip of the weather conditions that you are currently experiencing. At the end of the video clip you will be asked whether you would like to continue the flight or divert to an alternate destination. If you decide to divert, a number of options will appear, and you will be asked to select an option and choose a new destination. Throughout the flight, you will have access to the material that is normally available during a cross-country flight under visual flight rules. You can access this material by clicking on the list. Before you begin the flight you have the opportunity to spend as much time as you like examining this material. Because of computer limitations, the Aeronautical Chart for each flight is not very detailed. If you wish to see a more detailed map, click on the “Map Link” and you will be taken to a web site in which you can zoom and scan in to see a very detailed view of the route. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 2

Flight 2 Alliance (Nebraska) via Ainsworth and O’Neill-Baker to Yankton (South Dakota) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • www. avhf. com Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. TAKEOFF 3

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neill-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 20 nm NE of Alliance Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 4

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 40 nm NE of Alliance Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 5

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 60 nm NE of Alliance Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 6

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 80 nm NE of Alliance Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 7

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts You are currently: 100 nm NE of Alliance Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan Make a decision Divert Continue – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 8

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts You are currently: 120 nm NE of Alliance Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan Make a decision Divert Continue – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 9

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 20 nm NE of Ainsworth Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 10

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 40 nm NE of Ainsworth Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 11

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 20 nm NE of O’Neill-Baker Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 12

Flight 2 Alliance (NB) via Ainsworth (NB) and O’Neil-Baker (NB) to Yankton (SD) • • Review flight details Aeronautical Chart [Map link] Airports – – – – • • • Alliance (KAIA) Ainsworth (KANW) O’Neill-Baker (KONL) Yankton (KYKN) Grant County (1 V 2) Rock County (RBE) Stuart Atkinson (8 V 2) Area Forecast Meteorological Reports Weather Charts – Radar Summary – Surface Weather • • Terminal Area Forecast Flight Plan www. avhf. com You are currently: 40 nm NE of O’Neill-Baker Make a decision Divert Continue Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 13

Flight 2 Aeronautical Chart www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. RETURN 14

RETURN Alliance www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 15

RETURN Ainsworth www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 16

O’Neill-Baker www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. RETURN 17

RETURN Yankton www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 18

RETURN Grant County www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 19

RETURN Rock County www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 20

RETURN Stuart-Atkinson www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 21

RETURN Flight 2– Weather Forecast www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 22

RETURN Flight 2 – Meteorological Reports www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 23

Flight 2 – Weather Charts – Radar Summary www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. RETURN 24

Flight 2 – Weather Charts – Surface Weather www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. RETURN 25

RETURN Flight 2 - TAF www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 26

RETURN Flight 2 – Flight Plan www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 27

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton: Divert 1 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration Cloud-base Visibility Cloud Coloring Cloud Density Terrain Clearance Rain Showers Cloud Type Horizon No Change ✔ ✔ Diversion Alternatives Improvement Alliance Distance Expected Weather ✔ Facilities ✔ ✔ Continue En-route Terrain Very Good Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Good Very Good Fair Very Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ At this stage of the flight it is useful to compare the conditions to those that were reported in the meteorological report. Since there has been no significant change in any of the indicators recorded in the meteorological report, the decision to divert is not necessarily warranted at this stage of the flight. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until the conditions improve. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 28

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 2 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration ✔ ✔ Cloud Coloring Rain Showers Cloud Type Horizon Improvement Alliance Distance Visibility Terrain Clearance Diversion Alternatives ✔ Cloud-base Cloud Density No Change Expected Weather Facilities ✔ ✔ Continue En-route Terrain Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Very Good Good Very Good Fair Very Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ While there has been an increase in the cloud density atthis stage of the flight, none of the other indicators have deteriorated. Therefore, there is no requirement, at this stage, to conduct a diversion. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until you feel more comfortable with the conditions. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 29

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 3 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration Cloud-base ✔ Distance Good Expected Weather Very Good Facilities ✔ Terrain Clearance En-route Terrain ✔ ✔ Rain Showers Horizon Alliance ✔ Cloud Coloring Cloud Type Diversion Alternatives Improvement ✔ Visibility Cloud Density No Change Continue Very Good Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Very Good Fair Very Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ ✔ Clearly, there has been a deterioration in the cloud density, and the cloud has developed, suggesting that a change has occurred in the prevailing conditions. Since three of the indicators have deteriorated, it is important to consider the possibility of a diversion until the conditions improve. While you might consider a diversion unnecessary at this stage, the options should be considered given that there has been a change in the conditions. This is particularly the case if you are relatively less experienced. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 30

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 4 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration ✔ Cloud-base ✔ Visibility Alliance Fair Good Expected Weather Very Good En-route Terrain ✔ ✔ ✔ Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Distance ✔ Rain Showers Horizon Improvement Facilities Cloud Density Cloud Type Diversion Alternatives ✔ Cloud Coloring Terrain Clearance No Change Continue Very Good Fair Very Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ Although there has been a deterioration in the cloud density and a change in the cloud type at this stage of the flight, there has been no change in the remaining indicators. This suggest that a diversion may not be necessary at this stage of the flight. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until you feel more comfortable with the conditions. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 31

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 5 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Cloud-base Visibility Cloud Coloring Deterioration No Change Rain Showers Cloud Type Horizon Alliance Distance Very Poor Expected Weather ✔ ✔ Facilities ✔ Cloud Density Terrain Clearance Diversion Alternatives Improvement ✔ ✔ Continue En-route Terrain Very Good Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Fair Very Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ During this stage of the flight, the cloud density appears to have improved and there is no change in the remaining indicators. Consequently, a diversion is not necessarily warranted at this stage. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until you feel more comfortable with the conditions. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 32

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 6 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration Cloud-base ✔ Cloud Density Terrain Clearance Rain Showers Cloud Type Horizon Diversion Alternatives Improvement Alliance Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Distance Very Poor ✔ Visibility Cloud Coloring No Change Continue Expected Weather ✔ Facilities ✔ En-route Terrain ✔ ✔ ✔ Very Good Fair Very Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ One of the most significant indicators associated with this stage is the fact that terrain clearance has reduced. However, the clouds have also darkened, there is a greater density of cloud, and the cloud-base has deteriorated. Since more than three indicators have deteriorated, a diversion is warranted at this stage of the flight. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 33

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 7 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration No Change Diversion Alternatives Improvement Alliance Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker ✔ Distance ✔ Expected Weather Very Poor Very Good Cloud Coloring ✔ Facilities Cloud Density ✔ En-route Terrain Clearance ✔ Rain Showers ✔ Cloud-base Visibility ✔ Cloud Type Horizon Continue Very Good Fair Poor Fair Very Good Fair Good Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ The conditions have deteriorated markedly during this stage of the flight, with visibility reduced and the onset of rain showers. Given the nature of the conditions, continued flight in visual meteorological conditions is not possible, and a diversion should have been conducted at an earlier stage of the flight. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 34

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 8 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration Cloud-base No Change ✔ Visibility Diversion Alternatives Improvement ✔ Continue Alliance Grant Rock Stuart O’Neil. Ainsworth County Atkinson Baker Distance Good Very Good Expected Weather Fair Poor Cloud Coloring ✔ Facilities Very Good Fair Cloud Density ✔ En-route Terrain Good Fair Good Terrain Clearance ✔ Rain Showers ✔ Cloud Type Horizon Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight. ✔ ✔ Although there has been some improvement in both the visibility and the horizon, there has been a further deterioration in the other indicators. At this stage, the flight is being conducted in conditions that are below that required for visual meteorological conditions, and a diversion should have been initiated at the stage at which at least three of the weather-related indicators had deteriorated. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 35

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 9 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration Cloud-base ✔ Visibility ✔ Cloud Coloring ✔ Cloud Density ✔ Terrain Clearance ✔ Rain Showers ✔ www. avhf. com Improvement Diversion Alternatives - None You are now flying your aircraft in Instrument Meteorological conditions. If you a visually-rated pilot, this is a violation of your privileges. More importantly, as a visually-rated pilot it is quite possible that you will lose control of the aircraft within 10 minutes of entering IMC. In the interests of developing the skills necessary to avoid unintended flight into IMC, you may want to take this flight again, taking care to note the weather -related indicators that occur throughout the flight. ✔ Cloud Type Horizon No Change Continue ✔ Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 36

Go back to where you diverted. Alliance to Yankton : Divert 10 Weather Conditions at Diversion Point (Compared to Previous Stage) Indicator Deterioration Cloud-base ✔ Visibility ✔ Cloud Coloring ✔ Cloud Density ✔ Terrain Clearance ✔ Rain Showers ✔ www. avhf. com Improvement Diversion Alternatives - None You are now flying your aircraft in Instrument Meteorological conditions. If you a visually-rated pilot, this is a violation of your privileges. More importantly, as a visually-rated pilot it is quite possible that you will lose control of the aircraft within 10 minutes of entering IMC. In the interests of developing the skills necessary to avoid unintended flight into IMC, you may want to take this flight again, taking care to note the weather -related indicators that occur throughout the flight. ✔ Cloud Type Horizon No Change Continue ✔ Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 37

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING In-Flight Diversions - Summary • This section of the program was designed to give you an opportunity to practice in-flight weatherrelated decisions. You should now be able to recognize the onset of deteriorating conditions using the weather indicators, and you should be aware of the way that you make decisions. • Finally, you always need to avoid being pressured into continuing a flight. Good airmanship requires that you always give yourself alternatives. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 38

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING Program Summary • You should now be aware of the value of looking for indications that the weather is deteriorating and that you may need to divert, based on good weather-related decision making. • We hope that you enjoyed this program, and that you will apply it’s principles in your future flights. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 39

THE END For more training programs and for self-evaluation exercises, please visit our web site at: www. avhf. com Additional training flights are available here. www. avhf. com Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph. D. 40