Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002

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Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games W. James Steenburgh

Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games W. James Steenburgh Department of Meteorology and NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction University of Utah jimsteen@met. utah. edu

Acknowledgments ¨ ¨ ¨ Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator John Horel, Professor Steven

Acknowledgments ¨ ¨ ¨ Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator John Horel, Professor Steven Lazarus. Assistant Research Professor Daryl Onton. Postdoctoral Fellow Carol Ciliberti, Judy Pechmann, Mike Splitt, Bryan White. Research Associates Grad & Undergrad Students Salt Lake City NWSFO staff and Western Region SSD personnel NWS/KSL Olympic Weather Support forecast team Dan Judd, Judd Communications Meso. West data providers and collaborators FSL developers of LDAD & FX-Net

Northern Utah topography 50 km Olympic Region Great Salt SLC ange Elevation (m) Lake

Northern Utah topography 50 km Olympic Region Great Salt SLC ange Elevation (m) Lake tch R 3250 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 Wasa Great Salt Lake Desert Stansbury Mts Oquirrh Mts

The 2002 Olympic region Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS

The 2002 Olympic region Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

Weather affects the Olympics ¨ Competition delays & postponements ¨ Transportation (ground air) ¨

Weather affects the Olympics ¨ Competition delays & postponements ¨ Transportation (ground air) ¨ Spectator safety & comfort ¨ Medical emergency response ¨ Security SLOC ¨ Venue engineering ¨ Environmental quality/air pollution ¨ Broadcasting/Ceremonies/ Look of the Games/Cultural Events UDOT

Specific weather concerns ¨ Heavy snowfall produced by fronts, topography, and the “dreaded lake

Specific weather concerns ¨ Heavy snowfall produced by fronts, topography, and the “dreaded lake effect” ¨ Wasatch Mts average 850 -1300 cm (300 -520”) of snow annually ¨ Alta averages 49 days per year with at least 12. 5 cm of snowfall 5 13 20 25 30 40 50 75 100 150 200 250 Annual SWE (cm, colorfill) and snowfall (annotated)

Specific weather concerns ¨ High winds at valley and mountain locations • Gap, downslope,

Specific weather concerns ¨ High winds at valley and mountain locations • Gap, downslope, or ridge-top winds; other terrain-induced flows Areas where strong ridge-top winds are a concern Gap winds Downslope winds Ski Jump venue (sensitive to moderate winds and gusts)

Specific weather concerns ¨ Valley inversions/cold pools • Fog (may be supercooled), poor visibility

Specific weather concerns ¨ Valley inversions/cold pools • Fog (may be supercooled), poor visibility and air quality (PM-10) Good Bad Ugly

Specific weather concerns ¨ Extreme warm or cold temperatures ¨ Lightning ¨ Avalanches D.

Specific weather concerns ¨ Extreme warm or cold temperatures ¨ Lightning ¨ Avalanches D. Judd Westwide Avalanche Network B. Tremper

Past weather during the Olympic Period 2001 • 7. Icy roads led to numerous

Past weather during the Olympic Period 2001 • 7. Icy roads led to numerous accidents in the Salt Lake Valley 2000 • 7. Record high temp (58 F) at Heber. Little snow at X-C venue 1999 • 9 -10. Hurricane force winds. Semis blown over on I-80. 1994 • 10 -11. Severe weather with lightning. Park City schools closed. • 22. Snowstorm during commuteover 100 accidents. Airport runways closed 1993 • 18 -21. Blizzard conditions. 50 car pileup near Point of the Mountain 1986 • 12 -13. 2 feet of snow at Parley’s Summit with blizzard conditions • 14 -18. Warm temperatures, warm heavy rains in valleys; heavy snow on slopes. Record high minimum temp (51 F) at SLC • 19. 119 mph gust at Park City ski area. Morgan County declared a disaster area as a result of flooding • 24 Avalanches close Little Cottonwood

Recent Olympic weather forecasting advances ¨ Atmospheric monitoring – Venue observations – Regional weather

Recent Olympic weather forecasting advances ¨ Atmospheric monitoring – Venue observations – Regional weather network ¨ Computer modeling – Integration of weather observations – “High-resolution” forecasts – Point-specific venue forecasts ¨ Basic research – Lake-effect snowstorms – Mountain snowfall – Valley inversions/cold pools

Olympic venue observing network Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton,

Olympic venue observing network Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G Utah Olympic Park Bobsled, Luge, Skeleton, Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined Park City Alpine GS, Snowboard GS Snowboard Half Pipe Deer Valley Alpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

Venue observations at Snowbasin ¨ Ownd by Forest Service ¨ ¨ ¨ Snowbasin, NOAA,

Venue observations at Snowbasin ¨ Ownd by Forest Service ¨ ¨ ¨ Snowbasin, NOAA, U of Utah Ogden Peak (OGP) Wildcat (SWI) Middle Bowl (SNI) Strawberry Base (SB 1) Strawberry Top (SB 2) Along venue courses – – OGP SB 2 SSS SBB SBW SWI SNI SB 1 SBE Mt Allen (SBB-top of men’s DH) John Paul (SBW – mid course) Shooting Star (SSS – mid course) Base (SBE – finish/stadium) (Photo: Mike Powell/ALLSPORT)

Venue weather web interface

Venue weather web interface

Olympic region and western US observing network (Meso. West) ¨ Collects and integrates observations

Olympic region and western US observing network (Meso. West) ¨ Collects and integrates observations from 2900 stations and over 70 organizations ¨ Data processed with graphical products generated every 15 minutes

Olympic region and western US observing network (Meso. West) ¨ 278 stations in northern

Olympic region and western US observing network (Meso. West) ¨ 278 stations in northern Utah Olympic region ¨ Improves analysis and forecasting of regional and local weather systems

Data assimilation and analysis Parley’s Canyon SLC Weather conditions along I-80 Surface temperature and

Data assimilation and analysis Parley’s Canyon SLC Weather conditions along I-80 Surface temperature and wind flow

High resolution computer modeling 36 km ¨ 3 x daily 36 -h forecasts at

High resolution computer modeling 36 km ¨ 3 x daily 36 -h forecasts at 4 -km grid spacing detail future local weather conditions 4 km 12 km

Point-specific forecasts for 32 Venue and corridor locations ¨ Combine high-resolution modeling and statistical

Point-specific forecasts for 32 Venue and corridor locations ¨ Combine high-resolution modeling and statistical techniques ¨ Forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation every hour 03/18 04/00 04/06 04/12 04/18 05/00

Basic Research ¨ Intermountain Precipitation Experiments (IPEX) • Wasatch Mountain Winter Storms ¨ Lake-effect

Basic Research ¨ Intermountain Precipitation Experiments (IPEX) • Wasatch Mountain Winter Storms ¨ Lake-effect snowstorms • Improved knowledge and prediction ¨ Vertical Transport and Mixing Program (VTMX) • Meteorological conditions that affect air quality in the Salt Lake Valley

Sample of findings Ogden Canyon Snowbasin Weber Canyon ¨ Causes of lake-effect snowbands ¨

Sample of findings Ogden Canyon Snowbasin Weber Canyon ¨ Causes of lake-effect snowbands ¨ Structure of Wasatch Mountain winter storms

Weather Forecasting for the Olympics A Team Effort KSL Forecast Team National Weather Service

Weather Forecasting for the Olympics A Team Effort KSL Forecast Team National Weather Service Venue Forecasting Public Forecasts/Warnings University of Utah Forecast Support

What will be the legacy after the Olympics? ¨ Improved weather monitoring and forecasting

What will be the legacy after the Olympics? ¨ Improved weather monitoring and forecasting tools will continue to be used by the National Weather Service and other meteorolgists during all seasons ¨ Improved knowledge of Intermountain weather ¨ The Olympic experience will identify areas where observations, computer models, or understanding is needed to improve forecasting in the future

Accessing weather data, forecasts, and information ¨http: //www. met. utah. edu/olympics ¨http: //www. saltlake

Accessing weather data, forecasts, and information ¨http: //www. met. utah. edu/olympics ¨http: //www. saltlake 2002. com

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