Weather forecasts and crisis management Michael Staudinger Zentralanstalt

Weather forecasts and crisis management Michael Staudinger Zentralanstalt für Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Weather forecasts and crisis management Is this a crisis I see before me? Michael Staudinger Zentralanstalt für Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Warning situations – necessary Informations Floods source: BH Landeck Precipitation, snow line, ground moisture, probabilities. . Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Warning situations – necessary Informations Avalanches snowfall, rain, temperature, wind. . Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Warning situations – necessary Informations Wind storm Speed, direction, impact, preconditions, behaviour. . . Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Warning situations Predictability A warning system has to be based on the predictability of the different phenomena Space - time correlation (ECMWF) Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Structure of ZAMG forecasts Nowcasting (120 min) Today, tomorrow Early warning (5 days) Radar Satellite imagea In-situ Measurement Regional Models (ALARO, AROME) • INCA • Regional models (ALARO, AROME) • Probabilistic forecasts (EPS) • Satellite images • Global models (ECMWF, NCEP. . . ) • Probabilistic forecasts(EPS) • Climatology • Extreme value statistic • • Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen 5 Tage Early warnings (5 days) Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen 72 h 3 days 22. Juni 2009 – 72 h forecast Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG forecasts 72 h 3 days 22. Juni 2009 – 72 h forecast 22. Juni 2009 - Analysis Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen 48 h Today, tomorrow Precipitation Analysis ALARO (5 km) without data assimilation Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG forecasts 48 h Today, tomorrow Precipitation Analysis AROME 2, 5 km with data assimilation Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG forecasts – Nowcasting 6 h Météo France, Toulouse ECMWF, Reading ARPEGE global model ECMWF global model OBSERVATIONS Y. Wang RADAR ALARO 5 limited area model INCA → Analyses → Nowcasts → Forecasts HYDROLOGY WARNINGS TOPOGRAPHY A. Kann PRODUCTS SATELLITS Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG forecasts– Nowcasting 6 h Hight dependency of precipitation, derived from climatological stations without with Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen – Nowcasting 6 h INCA Model weight Analyse 1 weight ALADIN Nowcasting 0 -15 min 0 h +02 h +06 h ECMWF +67 h +72 h Forecast time range Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Nowcasting with traffic regulation Radar + INCA data Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Nowcasting with traffic regulation Radar + INCA data Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

SKKM – From science to the user Flow of information - cooperations user: mayor Companies, Individuals Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

SKKM – From science to the user Flow of information - cooperations users: • Local responsibles • Mayors • Companies, • Individuals (Apps etc. ) ZAMG Weather Warning authority Media Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

ZAMG forecasts A. Schaffhauser K. Stadlbacher Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Standardised European Warnings Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

EMI - Europen Meteorological Infrastructure of forecasts LAM, in situ data, … forecasting Media, public Civil Protection Media, public forecasting Media, public Civil Protection regio Media, public Civil Protection Media, public Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Warnings and competition POD 1 xxxx (future) xxxx (now) FAR Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Warnings and competition POD 1 XXX xxxx (competing players) (future) xxxx (now) FAR Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Conrad Observatory Eingang 1. 044 m 1 Borehole 50 m deep Borehole Sensors Gravity Meter 145 m Tunnel 3 Boreholes 100 m deep Seismometer Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Conrad Observatory Eingang 1. 044 m 1 Borehole 50 m deep Borehole Sensors Gravity Meter 145 m Tunnel 3 Boreholes 100 m deep Seismometer Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf: Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf: Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik

Necessary future cooperations Weather service and: More data providers: other services, private companies, cross boarder data exchange (radar) Universities, research institutions : development of methods (modelling, impacts, climate modelling … Operational services: „Multihazard Services“ (Hydro, health services, Red cross. . ) Framework: National ISDR, GEO, GCOS platforms open data policies Zentralanstaltfür Meteorologieund Geodynamik