Weather Forecast Briefing for KOAK Oakland CA on

  • Slides: 21
Download presentation
Weather Forecast Briefing for KOAK (Oakland, CA) on Day, Date, Year of the forecast

Weather Forecast Briefing for KOAK (Oakland, CA) on Day, Date, Year of the forecast Your Name METR 104 Today’s date

Overview of Current Weather Conditions • visible and infrared satellite images • a composite

Overview of Current Weather Conditions • visible and infrared satellite images • a composite surface weather map • a composite map of conditions aloft • a jet stream map

2. 12 Z Temperature Links: • Latest available meteogram (Drag and drop a copy

2. 12 Z Temperature Links: • Latest available meteogram (Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, and rescale it to a smaller size. ) • Next-latest available meteogram (Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and rescale it to a smaller size) • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to 12 Z tomorrow. For example: Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 12 Z tomorrow (Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and rescale the map to a smaller size. )

3. Will cloudiness affect the 12 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Latest NWS Point

3. Will cloudiness affect the 12 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to 12 Z tomorrow. For example: Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. • wunder. Wiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the language used in NWS cloudiness forecasts) (Copy and paste relevant text from the wunder. Wiki Web site here. )

4. Will a front affect the 12 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Verification area

4. Will a front affect the 12 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Verification area for fronts affecting KOAK • NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts (Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, rescaling them to a smaller size. Label each with the forecast time).

5. Will temperature advection be significant at 12 Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest computer

5. Will temperature advection be significant at 12 Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 12 Z tomorrow (Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size. ) • Temperature Tendency Calculator [optional]

6. 18 Z Temperature Links: • Latest available meteogram (Drag and drop a copy

6. 18 Z Temperature Links: • Latest available meteogram (Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, rescaling it to a smaller size. ) • Next-latest available meteogram (Drag and drop a copy of the meteogram here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and rescale it to a smaller size. ) • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to tomorrow’s 18 Z temperature forecast. For example: Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. Friday: A 60 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high around 66. Southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph. • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18 Z tomorrow (Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link [putting both on a new page if necessary], and rescale the map to a smaller size. )

7. Will cloudiness affect the 18 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Latest NWS Point

7. Will cloudiness affect the 18 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to 18 Z tomorrow. For example: Friday: A 60 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 66. Southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph. • wunder. Wiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the language used in NWS cloudiness forecasts) (Copy and paste relevant text from the wunder. Wiki Web site here. )

8. Will a front affect the 18 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Verification area

8. Will a front affect the 18 Z temperature tomorrow? Links: • Verification area for fronts affecting KOAK • NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts (Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, and rescale them to a smaller size. Label each with the forecast time).

9. Will temperature advection be significant at 18 Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest computer

9. Will temperature advection be significant at 18 Z tomorrow? Links: • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18 Z tomorrow (Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size. ) • Temperature Tendency Calculator [optional]

Links: 10. What will the wind speed be at 18 Z tomorrow? • Latest

Links: 10. What will the wind speed be at 18 Z tomorrow? • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to 18 Z tomorrow. For example: Friday: A 60 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high around 66. Southwest winds from 10 to 15 mph. • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and sea-level pressures at 18 Z tomorrow (West Coast) • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18 Z tomorrow (San Francisco Bay region) (Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size. )

Links: 11. What will the wind direction be at 18 Z tomorrow? • Latest

Links: 11. What will the wind direction be at 18 Z tomorrow? • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to 18 Z tomorrow. For example: Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and sea-level pressures at 18 Z tomorrow (West Coast) • Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperatures at 18 Z tomorrow (San Francisco Bay region) (Drag and drop a copy of the NAM forecast map here, below the link, and rescale the map to a smaller size. )

Links: 12. Will there be precipitation between 12 Z tomorrow and 12 Z the

Links: 12. Will there be precipitation between 12 Z tomorrow and 12 Z the next day? • NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Short Range Forecasts (Drag and drop copies of the relevant “short range forecast” maps here, and rescale them to a smaller size. Label each with the forecast time). • Latest NWS Point Forecast: Copy and paste text from the NWS point forecast relevant to the forecast period. (See example below. ) Put both the text and the link above on a new page if necessary. Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South southeast wind around 6 mph. Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest. ] Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 11 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. West southwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming southeast.

Forecast Discussion • • For 12 Z Temperature: Describe the part of the conceptual

Forecast Discussion • • For 12 Z Temperature: Describe the part of the conceptual model of the daily temperature cycle that provides the basis for the your forecast. For the effect of cloudiness on 12 Z or on 18 Z temperature: State the criteria for whether or not clouds will affect the 12 Z or 18 Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information that you use to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For the effect of a front on 12 Z or 18 Z temperature: State the criteria for whether or not a front will affect the 12 Z or 18 Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For the effect of temperature advection on 12 Z or 18 Z temperature: State the criteria for whether or not temperature advection will affect the 12 Z or 18 Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For your particular forecasting question, consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast. If necessary, use more than one Power. Point slide for your discussion.

Forecast Discussion (cont’d) • • • For 18 Z temperature: Describe the conceptual model

Forecast Discussion (cont’d) • • • For 18 Z temperature: Describe the conceptual model that provides the basis for the your forecast. (Use the annotated temperature plot on the next slide. ) Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For 18 Z wind speed or wind direction: Identify the sources of information that you use for making your forecast, together with the analysis and reasoning that you use. In particular, comment on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the NWS point forecast and the NAM forecast, and comment on how you factor them into your forecast. For whether or not there will be precipitation in the 24 hours starting at 12 Z tomorrow: Identify your source(s) of information and explain the analysis and reasoning that you use to make your forecast. For your particular forecasting question, consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast. If necessary, use more than one Power. Point slide for your discussion.

Forecast: Write your forecast here just as you would enter it at the Iowa

Forecast: Write your forecast here just as you would enter it at the Iowa St. University Web site. Verification: • Archived meteograms • Archived weather maps for the West Coast, including fronts • Archived analyses of temperature and wind observations [Compare the appropriate observation(s) with your forecast. How would ISU score it? ]

Forecast Discussion • • For 12 Z Temperature: Describe the part of the conceptual

Forecast Discussion • • For 12 Z Temperature: Describe the part of the conceptual model of the daily temperature cycle that provides the basis for the your forecast. For the effect of cloudiness on 12 Z or on 18 Z temperature: State the criteria for whether or not clouds will affect the 12 Z or 18 Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information that you use to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For the effect of a front on 12 Z or 18 Z temperature: State the criteria for whether or not a front will affect the 12 Z or 18 Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For the effect of temperature advection on 12 Z or 18 Z temperature: State the criteria for whether or not temperature advection will affect the 12 Z or 18 Z temperature. Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast, together with the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For your particular forecasting question, consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast. If necessary, use more than one Power. Point slide for your discussion.

Forecast Discussion (cont’d) • • • For 18 Z temperature: Describe the conceptual model

Forecast Discussion (cont’d) • • • For 18 Z temperature: Describe the conceptual model that provides the basis for the your forecast. (Use the annotated temperature plot on the next slide. ) Then identify the source(s) of the information you used to make your forecast and the reasoning that you apply, including any assumptions that you make. For 18 Z wind speed or wind direction: Identify the sources of information that you use for making your forecast, together with the analysis and reasoning that you use. In particular, comment on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the NWS point forecast and the NAM forecast, and comment on how you factor them into your forecast. For whether or not there will be precipitation in the 24 hours starting at 12 Z tomorrow: Identify your source(s) of information and explain the analysis and reasoning that you use to make your forecast. For your particular forecasting question, consult the Forecasting Tactics document for details. Your discussion should be detailed enough so that someone else could reproduce your forecast. If necessary, use more than one Power. Point slide for your discussion.

Forecast: Write your forecast here just as you would enter it at the Iowa

Forecast: Write your forecast here just as you would enter it at the Iowa St. University Web site. Verification: • Archived meteograms • Archived weather maps for the West Coast, including fronts • Archived analyses of temperature and wind observations [Compare the appropriate observation(s) with your forecast. How would ISU score it? ]