WATER SCENARIO OF PAKISTAN It is not the

WATER SCENARIO OF PAKISTAN “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, or the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. ” Charles Darwin (1859)

Objective To become Thought Leaders on water sector in Pakistan by conducting a detailed study; analyzing the present and future water balance leading to recommendations for public policy development.

Background Global Fresh Water Availability Picture 1 : Freshwater availability (m 3 person per year, 2007) Pakistan falls in the water stressed regions! 20 % of the World’s population lives in water-scarce regions, and as many as 45 % of the World Population could experience water scarcity by 2025

Background Current Situation in Pakistan Table 2: Per Capita Water Availability of Pakistan (WAPDA Report 2003) Year Population (M) Per Capita Water Availability(m 3) 1981 84 2100 2000 148 1200 2013 207 850 2025 221 659 Table 3: Per Capita Water Availability of different countries Country 1955 1990 2025 USA 14, 934 9, 913 7, 695 Philippines 13, 507 5, 173 3, 072 Mexico 11, 396 4, 226 2, 597 Iraq 18, 441 6, 029 2, 356 China 4, 597 2, 427 1, 818 Pakistan 2, 490 1, 672 837 Population Action Control , 1993 • There is no consensus on the exact per capita water availability • The water situation in Pakistan is going from bad to worse

Background Water Availability: Surface Water Picture 3 : Tibet Plateau Picture 4: Tibet Plateau and major rivers • The sources of Indus and Sutlej is in the Chinese-held Tibetan Plateau • Tibet has a unique triple role of Asia’s water repository, water supplier, and rainmaker • The sources of Indus and Sutlej is in the Chinese-held Tibetan Plateau

Background Pakistan’s Water Demand Table 10: Pakistan’s Water Scenario Year 2004 2025 Availability 104 MAF 104 MAF ? ? ? Requirement 115 MAF 135 MAF Overall Shortfall 11 MAF 31 MAF (Including Drinking Water) • WAPDA has assumed a value of 104 MAF for it’s year 2025 vision since 2004

Section 2: Problems and Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan

Problems and Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 1 3 2 Poor Agriculture Practices 4 Degradation of Water Quality Inadequate Infrastructure Policy Constraints 6 5 Increase in Water Demand Politics

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 1 -Poor Agriculture Practices Table 12 : Seepage Losses in Irrigation System (MAF) Grand Total 65. 0 Seeps underground and replenishes Freshwater aquifer 33. 0 Wasted in underground saline water aquifer 32. 0 Bigger canals 8. 0 Distributaries and minors 3. 5 Water-courses 12. 5 Agriculture Field 8. 0 Source: Planning & Development Division Estimates • • • Seepage losses in irrigation system due to poor irrigation infrastructure The Irrigation System can be lined to avoid the freshwater seepage into the system Easiest is to line watercourses as they can be isolated and attended all year round

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 1 -Poor Agriculture Practices: Low Agriculture Yield Graph 2: Wheat yields per unit of land & water Table 13 : Water Productivity for Wheat Pakistan India California 0. 5 kg/m 3 1. 0 kg/m 3 1. 5 kg/m 3 Table 14 : Water Intensive Cropping % of Cultivated Land Crops Pakistan USA India Wheat 53 17 30 Sugarcane 17 - 4. 5 Rice 16 1 28 • The productivity of water in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world • We are exporting our water in the shape of water intensive crops and products *Major Crop is Corn: 30% and Soya: 27% Glance at Poor Agriculture Practices

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 1 -Poor Agricultural Practices: Water Intensive Cropping Picture 6: Overexploitation of groundwater from Aral Sea , a huge reservoir of freshwater 1989 2008 • The demise of the Aral Sea in Central Asia remains one of the most iconic global images • Cotton was unnecessarily sown around a thirsty area which converted Aral Sea into small ponds

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan Water Usage-Virtual Water Graph 3: How many liters of water is required to produce 1 Kg of: How many liters of water is required to produce 1 kg of: Potatoes Wheat Milk Citrus Fruits Water Consumption (liter) Pulses Rice Meat Cotton 0 5, 000 10, 000 15, 000 Adapted from ‘UNESCO’ (2009) 20, 000

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 2 -Inadequate Infrastructure: Low Storage Capacity Table 15 : No. of Storage Days of Different Basins Table 16 : No. of Dams in Selected Countries Basins (Country) Storage Days Country Large Dams* Colorado –USA 900 China 85, 100 Murray Darling (Australia) 900 United States 9, 265 Orange (South Africa) 500 India 5, 102 Cauvery(India) 150 Brazil 1, 392 Indus (Pakistan) 30 Pakistan 154 Pakistan has one of the lowest storage capacity in cubic meters per capita among semi-arid countries * A large dam is defined by the dam industry as one higher than 15 metres

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 2 -Inadequate Infrastructure: Low Storage Capacity Table 17: Water Storage Opportunity Lost during floods River Flows & Storage Potential Down Stream Kotri Average Flows (1976 -2009) 31. 31 MAF* Uses Minimum Downstream Kotri Requirement minus 8. 6 MAF Capacity enhancement of Mangla Dam by raising dam height minus 2. 9 MAF Decrease in flow of Indian Rivers (As per Indus Water Treaty) minus 2. 0 MAF Water Going in Sea 17. 81 MAF *This is the quantity available during floods, otherwise the water flow is very low in normal years

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 2 -Inadequate Infrastructure: Siltation Reducing Storage Capacity Table 18: Reservoir Sedimentation Reservoirs Storage Capacity Original Year 2009 Year 2012 Year 2025 MAF MAF Tarbela 9. 68 (1974) 6. 78 6. 5 5. 38 Mangla 5. 34 (1967) 7. 34* 7. 32 7. 08 Chashma 0. 72 (1971) 0. 37 0. 43 0. 34 15. 74 14. 49 14. 25 12. 8 Total * =4. 46 + 2. 88(Increase in height)=7. 34 • • Mangla Dam’s capacity was increased by 2. 88 MAF in 2009 Our existing total capacity is approximately 14 MAF

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 2 -Inadequate Infrastructure: Flooding due to Siltation • • Silt builds up in dams & barrages River width compromised due to settlement and population growth Reduced river width causes silt deposition in the river bed, reducing its depth & flow capacity High risk of disastrous flooding to human settlements close to the river in the future • • Over the past 67 years, there have been 21 major floods in Pakistan(NDMA) These floods have inflicted a cumulative financial loss of more than $37 billion Graph 4: Flood Losses in Pakistan

Problem & Challenges of Water Management in Pakistan 2 -Inadequat Infrastructure: Unfavorable Climate Change Picture 7: Flood 2010 The volume of flood water was more than 4 times of Pakistan's annual reservoirs’ capacity Picture 8: Flood 2014 • Flood in the Chenab River played havoc in the country • It caused over 200 deaths and over 700 villages washed away

Section 3 : Recommendations for Water Challenges in Pakistan

Recommendations Short Term Recommendations (Within 1 Year) • • • Lining of Water Course & Distributaries Floodwater Harvesting-New Lakes Rainwater Harvesting Artificial Rain Fish-duck-rice farming Importing Water-Intensive Products Efficient Water Resource Management Hydroponics Grey Water Harvesting

Recommendations Mid Term Recommendations (1 to 5 years) • • Water Pricing Dredging Barrages & Upstream areas within bunds Construct more link canals between rivers Check Dams Cropping Pattern/Better Yield Crops Improving Urban Water Distribution Industrial Wastewater Treatment Reverse Osmosis of Saline Water Long Term Recommendations(More than 5 years) • Lining of Canals • Desalination • Building dams & reservoirs