Water Balances and Climate Change Bruce Peachey P

Water Balances and Climate Change Bruce Peachey, P. Eng. , MCIC President, New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. U of A - Chem Eng Student Night March 23, 2004

Areas to Cover Chemical Engineers and Climate Change u Global Water Balance u North American Water Use and Impacts u Evidence for Regional Water Impacts u Evidence for Local Water Impacts u Our Role for the Future u

Chemical Engineers & Climate Change u Edmonton Section meetings on Climate Change • Jan, 1998 - Kyoto impacts discussed • May, 2000 - Proposed 7 potential sources of climate change • Feb, 2002 - New IPCC data review supported Human Enhanced Water Evaporation (HEWE) as the most likely 2002 Discussion Paper Circulated u Dec, 2003 Presentation to CMOS u

Water Balances and Climate Change Familiar to chemical engineers u Climate changes mainly water and energy u • Air can’t carry much energy without water Proposed that Human Enhanced Water Evaporation (HEWE) rather than GHG Warming is the main cause of Climate Change u Water Balances can potentially be used to prove which theory is correct u

Global Water Cycle (km 3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr) Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton 40 71 111 425 Land 385 Ocean 40

Latest Data Indicates Globally atmospheric GHGs are up u Globally average temperatures are higher u • Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10 years • Night-time lows increasing more than day-time highs • More over land than over oceans. • Cooling in some areas of southern hemisphere and Antarctica u Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days per decade in northern hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates u Precipitation increases (5 -10%) over most land areas in mid to high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere • No observed increase in southern hemisphere • Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme weather. u Heavy precipitation events increased in northern latitudes • Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in Northern Hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased in Northern Hemisphere by several percent per decade u Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere increased by 2% • Positively correlated with decrease in u diurnal temperature range (night-time warming)

Latest Data Indicates u Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere decreasing • No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent. Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat except in coastal areas. u El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent and intense over the last 30 years u

The Big Question? u Where did all the extra water come from? ? ? ? • GHG Warming of Oceans? • HEWE on Land? • Somewhere else? ? ?

Water Balance just GHG Warming? +42 - 38 +4 +4 40 71 111 425 Land 385 Ocean 40 +4 Oceans should be affected the most

Closing the Balance with HEWE 40 +4 71 111 425 385 +4 Land should be affected the most Ocean 40

World Precipitation Trend = +2% avg since 1900; = +2000 Gt/yr avg over 100 years Source: IPCC Scientific Report

Annual Global Water Withdrawals Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick =+2% Increase avg precip over the last 100 years Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4. 6 to get cubic kilometers

Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations 1981 -1994 Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995) Altitude (km) Conc (ppm) Avg Annual Increase (%) 10 -12 59. 2 1. 03 12 -14 11. 88 0. 49 14 -16 4. 66 0. 54 16 -18 3. 87 0. 73 18 -20 3. 85 0. 84 20 -22 4. 07 0. 54 22 -24 4. 21 0. 38 24 -26 4. 29 0. 34

How Does HEWE Theory Fit the Facts? u Source is anthropogenic and increasing u Should cause increased warming in cold areas. u Should cause increased rainfall and severity of storms Unusual patterns u Increases night time low temperatures due to day/night cycling as dew point is raised

580 328 610 709 174 128 30 14 World Water Withdrawals = 3414 Gt/yr + 25% evap. from dam Source: World Resources Institute 2003

Feeding Antarctic Ice Loss? Antarctic Peninsula - Sciam Dec’ 02 “The only part of Antarctica Irrigation In SA • Feeding energy and water onto the peninsula? • Only 1000 km and carried by prevailing winds and ocean currents certain to have been affected by global warming” Ice sheet has disappeared at least once in 600, 00 yrs No Effect - Stable for 15 million years

North American Water Use Mainly Used for Power Generation in the U. S. and Canada; followed by Irrigation u Patterns of water use vary by region u Amount of Natural Renewable Water Resource Withdrawals u • Canada - 1. 4% • United States - 25. 6% • Mexico - 18. 1% • (NB Not including water reservoir evaporation)

U. S. Water Use - 1995 Total = 556 Gt/yr = 12% of World Use

Regional Indicators of Water Impacts u Weekend rainfall (Cerveny and Balling 1998) • Rainfall 22% higher on Saturdays on East Coast • Lowest on Sunday to Tuesday u Workweek temperature effects (Forster and Solomon 2003) • Diurnal Temperature Ranges weekly variations u Three days after 9/11 - Lower night time temperatures • Attributed to radiative impacts of airplane contrails • However, other things were also not happening

The Heat Pipe Effect Day/Night Cycles Water Transport Water added in Hot Dry Areas Water gives Up Heat and Falls In Cold Areas

Workweek Effects - Forster and Solomon Sciam September 16, 2003 Red - Night-time temperatures lower on weekdays Blue - Night-time temperatures lower on weekends Air can travel 1000’s km/day. Water molecule on average spend 10 days in the air Work Week Water Pulse? Time delay in the heat pipe?

Canadian Water Use - 1996 Total = 44. 72 Gt/yr = 1. 4% of Supply NB Hydroelectric supplies 62% of energy demand

Water Withdrawals by Province (Gt/yr) 2. 8 3. 5 6. 5 3. 8 Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies B. C. 28. 3 NB Does not include evaporation from hydroelectric reservoirs

Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers & Warm/Dry Out the Prairies? Summer Water Pulse? N. B. 44% of Alberta’s and 30% of B. C. ’s water use on an annual basis Irrigation - But all of it is emitted in the summer months! 5 Gt/yr

1 tonne of water vapour condensing to water can melt 6. 7 tonnes of snow or ice

Alberta Water Balance? Precipitation = 337 Gt/yr Evaporation = 261 Gt/yr Net Surface Runoff Added = 61 Gt/yr River Flows In = 70 Gt/yr Alta Water Use: 9. 4 Gt/yr + res evap 16+% of Avail • 80% of Avail in North • <20% of use is in North • Alta uses 50% of water In S. Saskatchewan River Flows Out Source: Alta Env David Trew = 131 Gt/yr March 22, 2004 *Groundwater Recharge? ? = 15 Gt/yr

Local Effects? - Lightning “Bright Sky, Dirty City? ” Sciam May 2001 u u u Increased lightning in areas centered on large refining complexes. Attributed to pollution seeding cloud formation But…Largest emission from refineries is water vapour

Is this Aerosols or Water? ? ?

This is definitely water! Do nuclear plants cause lightning as well?

The Balance of Evidence - Says. . . Human Enhanced Water Evaporation (HEWE) SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate Change Equation u GHG impacts may still be a concern and are an indicator of energy waste so should still be reduced by reducing energy use u Finding the right solutions means addressing the right problem. u

HEWE – Implications u Agriculture Industry • Improvements needed in irrigation practices • Select crops that suit the local climate u Electrical Power Industry • Reduce power use; S/D nuclear (206 vs. 140 l/kwhr) • Increase efficiency from 40% to 80% with cogen • Reduce Water Use u Some responses to GHG make HEWE worse • Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,

Does It Matter Which Theory is Right? u Likely no theory is entirely right. u Best strategy is to find “Robust Solutions” which: • Minimize Water added to atmosphere • Reduce Energy Waste Fossil Fuel Consumption Reduce GHG emissions • Create Wealth (improve standard of living - current and future)

New Paradigms? Not Really u Sustainable Development is based on: u Reduce • Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial wants so they are there when future generations need them. u Reuse – Resources more than once u Recycle – If you can’t do the first two. u Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting “Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources • Is it really green?

The Challenge for Chem. E’s Lobby to get someone studying Human Enhanced Water Evaporation impacts on climate and local weather (CMOS? ) u Encourage discussing HEWE in public forums or with governments u Ensure the right actions are taken rather than the politically correct or expedient ones u "Difference of opinion leads to inquiry, and inquiry leads to truth" - Thomas Jefferson u

Let’s Keep the Water Balanced!

Contact Information New Paradigm Engineering Ltd. 10444 - 20 Avenue Edmonton, Alberta Canada T 6 J 5 A 2 tel: 780. 448 -9195 email: bruce@newparadigm. ab. ca web: www. newparadigm. ab. ca