Washington State Sex Offender Report Series Highlights December

Washington State Sex Offender Report Series Highlights December 16, 2005 Robert Barnoski Washington State Institute for Public Policy www. wsipp. wa. gov

What Are We Going to Cover Today? 1. Trends in Sex Offender Populations 2. Sex Offender Characteristics 3. Sex Offender Recidivism 4. What Reduces Recidivism? 2 of 12

What are the trends in the sentencing of sex offenders? Number of Convictions 3, 500 1, 200 3, 000 1, 000 2, 500 800 2, 000 600 1, 500 400 Number of Sex Offenders in Prison 200 1, 000 Prison Population on December 1 Number of Convictions 1, 400 500 0 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Lesson: Although convictions have dropped, the prison population 3 of 12 has increased. Why?

Why are there more sex offenders in prison when there are fewer convictions? 70% 70 Percent Sentenced to Prison 60 50% 50 40% 40 30% Months in Prison 30 20% 20 10% 10 0% 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Average Months in Prison Percent Imprisoned 60% 2002 Lesson: The prison population has increased because the percent 4 of 12 sentenced to prison and prison terms have increased.

For what kinds of offenses are sex offenders sentenced? Type of Sentence Total Jail SSOSA Prison 100% 27% 21% 52% Child Victim Offenses 75% 63% 95% 73% Adult Victim Offenses 18% 21% 6% 21% 10% 11% 1% 14% 7% 16% 0% 6% Current Sentence Includes Total Rape Other Felony Sex Lesson: Most DOC sex offenders are child molesters, and nearly all those with a SSOSA are child molesters. 5 of 12

Do most sex offenders in DOC also have a Washington State juvenile court record? Juvenile Record of Convictions for Those in DOC Who Are Under 26 Years Old Type of Sentence Prior Juvenile Felony Convictions Total Jail SSOSA Prison Number 1, 595 31% 18% 51% Juvenile Felony Sex 10% 8% 0% 15% 7% 5% 4% 9% 17% 13% 4% 24% Juvenile Violent Felony (not sex) Any Juvenile Violent Felony Lesson: Nearly 1 in 4 young sex offenders in prison have a violent juvenile record. A prevention opportunity? 6 of 12

Are there a lot of repeat sex offenders? Type of Sentence Prior Adult Convictions Total Jail SSOSA Prison Felony Sex 14% 10% 4% 19% One 9% 7% 3% 12% Two or More 5% 3% 1% 7% Violent Felony (not sex) 7% 8% 1% 20% Total Violent Felony 21% 18% 5% 39% Lesson: Among sex offenders in prison, 4 out of 10 have prior adult violent convictions. 7 of 12

How often do sex offenders reoffend? Five-Year Felony Recidivism Rates 10% Felony Sex Violent Felony (Not Sex) Non-Violent Felony 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Total Jail SSOSA Prison Lesson: Sex offenders in DOC have relatively low recidivism rates and SSOSA offenders have the lowest rates. 8 of 12

How does time imprisoned affect recidivism? Estimated Percentage Point Change in 24 -Month Recidivism for Every Additional 6 Months in Prison Felony Recidivism Violent Felony Recidivism Base Rate 13. 6% 6. 4% Percentage Point Change -0. 3% -0. 1% All Sex Offenders Child Molesters Base Rate 9. 8% 4. 6% Percentage Point Change -0. 4% -0. 2% Not Child Molesters Base Rate 19. 5% 9. 3% Percentage Point Change 0. 0% Lesson: Longer prison terms reduce recidivism rates for child 9 of 12 molesters, but not for other sex offenders.

Adjusted Five-Year Felony Recidivism Rates for Three Study Periods How have recidivism rates changed since enactment of community registration and notification laws? 18% 1986 -1989: Pre-Statutes 1990 -1996: Post 1990 Law 1997 -1999: Post 1997 Law 19% 11% 9%* 7% 4%* Felony Violent Felony 2%* Felony Sex Lesson: The community protection laws may be associated with reduced violent and felony sex recidivism. 10 of 12

What about sex offender treatment? • SSOSA has a very low recidivism rate. • Based on our review of the research literature, the average cognitive-behavioral treatment program reduces recidivism rates (statistically significant differences). • We will evaluate DOC’s Sex Offender Treatment Program, which is a cognitive-behavioral program. 11 of 12

What is next in the report series? • How well do DOC risk assessments predict recidivism, and is there room for improvement? • Who does and does not get involved in the civil commitment process? • Does DOC’s Sex Offender Treatment Program reduce recidivism? 12 of 12