WAGES AND SALARIES TRENDS IN ITALY Dr Lorenzo

WAGES AND SALARIES TRENDS IN ITALY Dr. Lorenzo Birindelli September the 26 th, 2013 International Trade Union House Brussels 1

A MODEST REAL GROSS WAGES GROWTH, WITH SOME DOWNTURNS Key concepts: • • • National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages and salaries Earnings (all wages items) Inflation (CPI, Deflator) 2

Gross earnings levels in selected EU countries at constant prices. Full-time and full-year equivalent employee average in the total economy. Private consumption expenditure deflator SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset LFS - Average annual wages). 3

Gross earnings levels in selected OECD countries at constant prices. Average compound annual growth rates (%) Full-time and full-year equivalent employee in the total economy. Private consumption expenditure deflator SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset: LFS - Average annual wages). 4

ITALY. National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages on Earnings Ratio (%) Gross values 1992 -2012 SOURCE: calculations on ISTAT data. 5

National-sectoral Collectively Agreed Wages&Salaries Index, Earnings and Consumer Prices Index (HICP) Yearly growth rates 1993 -2014 (%) Wages and Earnings are gross and at nominal values SOURCE: calculations on ISTAT and OECD data. 6

The fiscal burden on labour (but also the financial base of the Italian welfare state) Key concepts : • • • Tax-wedge Social contribution on employers and employees Personal income taxation 7

Selected EU countries. Average tax wedge (%) for a single person at 100% of average earnings with no child. Year 2001 and 2012 SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Taxing Wages Enquiry). 8

ITALY. Comparison of standard average personal tax rates (%) for a given power purchasing parity. 2001 vs. 2013 SOURCE: author’s calculations. 9

PROGRESSING DOWNWARDS Key concepts : • • • Individual income distribution Paid and not paid time spans Part-time 10

ITALY. Employees’ income tax returns (individuals) by taxable personal income classes at 2011 prices (%). 2001 vs. 2011 (euro per year) SOURCE: calculations on Dipartimento delle Finanze (MEF Finance Department) data. 11

THE GOOD REASONS Key concepts: • • • Checking unemployment Tackling inflation Modest (but positive) employment quantitative trends 12

ITALY, FRANCE AND GERMANY. Unemployment rates 1990 -2014 (%) SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset: Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013 ). 13

ITALY, FRANCE AND GERMANY. Yearly Inflation rates 1990 -2014 (%) SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013). 14

THE NEGATIVE SPILL-OVERS (WITH OTHERS DETERMINANTS, TOO) Key concepts: • • Low productivity (both factors) track Low growth 15

Selected OECD countries. GDP, Employment and Multi-factor productivity Average compound annual growth rates 1993 -2007 (%) SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013; Productivity Database – update July 2013). 16

WHAT WE ARE FACING NOW Key concepts: • • Manufacturing decline Erosion of the social expenditure financial (and political) bases 17

ITALY. Actual (including 2013 -14 estimates) and potential Gross Domestic Product at constant prices SOURCE: calculations on OECD data (Dataset Economic Outlook No 93 - June 2013). 18