WAENO WORKSHOP Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Fortum Fuzzy

WAENO WORKSHOP Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Alternatives considered in the Fuzzy RO Decision Tree: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Grate Boiler Crushing and cofiring of Biofuel-NA 2 No investment CCGT Fr 9 E CCGT 2*Fr 9 Fa Old Boilers Changed to Gas No investment Old Boilers Changed to Gas CCGT Fr 9 E Old Boilers Changed to Gas CCGT 2*Fr 9 Fa Repowering

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Fuzzification Process Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers Investment Cost

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index Triangular Fuzzy Number: Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number:

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Sensitivity Analysis Inputs: • Discount Rate {r: 0 <= r <= 10 %} • Risk Free Interest Rate {rf : 0 <= rf <= 6 %} • Risk Aversion {A: 0 <= A <= 10} • Price Scenario {P: P = 1, 2, 3} Outputs • FROV and Fuzzy. CF • U(FROV) • Project Index (1 st position) • Deferral Time • M(FROV) and M(Fuzzy. CF) ü ü Inputs vary according to an uniform distribution Analysis for triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy number

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate • Both types give the same optimal projects • The discount rate where the decision changes is similar, 2. 16 % and 2. 05 % • Optimal deferral time constant • Rf = 3 %, A = 5. 5 Price Scenario = 2

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapezoidal – Project 5

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapezoidal – Project 1

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Triangular – Project 5

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Triangular – Project 1

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapez - Triang – Project 5

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Discount Rate – Trapez - Triang – Project 1

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Price Scenario • Both types give the same optimal projects • Optimal deferral time constant • Rf = 3 %, A = 5. 5 r=5%

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Price Scenario

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interst Rate • Both types give the same optimal project • Optimal deferral time constant • A = 5. 5 r = 5 % Price scenario 2

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interst Rate - Trapezoidal

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interst Rate - Triangular

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Free Interest Rate – Triang – Trapez

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index • Both types give the same optimal projects • The risk index where the decision changes is similar, 3. 84 and 3. 45 • Optimal deferral time constant • Rf = 3 %, r = 5 % Price Scenario = 2

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index – Trapezoidal – Project 5 - 1

Fortum Fuzzy Decision Tree Risk Index – Triangular – Project 5 - 1