Vulnerability of Rainfed Farmer in Lao PDR and
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Outline: • Background • Objective & Scope of study • Study sites • Method • Finding (preliminary) • Impact of climate change on rice production • Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis Remarks: • Surveyed data still need to be validated and verified • Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed • Adaptation options is to be further evaluated
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Background • Part of AIACC AS 07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change • Joint research effort by • • • Suppakorn Chinvanno 1 Boontium Lersupavithnapa 2 Somkith Boulidam 3 Thavone Inthavong 4 Chitnucha Budhaboon 5 1 Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand 3 Faculty of Social Science, National University of Laos , Vientiane, Lao PDR 4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute, Lao PDR 5 Rice Research Center, Thailand 2 Faculty
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Objectives: Pilot study to identify & characterize vulnerability & adaptation to climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and build regional capacity & network of researchers Scope: Climate Variability Climate Change Scenario Changes in yield of rice production scenarios Vulnerability Adaptation Vulnerability new expand Coping capacity Sustainable livelihood • • • no sufficient yes • • Who will vulnerable? How did they response to the past climate variability? Can this cope with future change? If not, what to do about future?
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Study Sites: Thailand: Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18 villages in 2 districts and devided into: • Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption • Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice • Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only • Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only • Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution Lao PDR: Savannakhet Province, covering 4 villages in Songkhone District
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Finding: Preliminary result • Survey data still need to be validated and verified • Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed • Adaptation options is to be further evaluated
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate condition under each CO 2 scenarios and average the results
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR Simulated rice yield (ton/ha( Climate scenario Min Max Ave %change from baseline year 1 x. CO 2 919. 6 5974. 6 2497. 4 1. 5 x. CO 2 866. 2 5470. 0 2355. 0 5. 7%- 1021. 8 5877. 4 2493. 3 0. 2%- 2 x. CO 2
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Simulated rice yields under different climate scenarios in 3 regions in Thailand Selected climate scenarios: by annual rainfall Dry Year Yield SD Median Year %change from baseline year kg ha-1 Northern Thailand: 1. 0 CO 2 2685 537 Chiang Rai Province 1. 5 CO 2 2834 480 2. 0 CO 2 2553 875 North Eastern Thailand: 1. 0 CO 2 2544 557 Sakonnakorn Province 1. 5 CO 2 2644 887 2. 0 CO 2 2615 1137 Central Thailand: 1. 0 CO 2 2421 732 Sakaeo Province 1. 5 CO 2 2657 623 2. 0 CO 2 2527 823 Yield SD %change from baseline year kg ha-1 2340 399 5. 55% 2678 480 4. 92%- 3402 1104 2459 591 3. 93% 2257 617 2. 79% 2771 1400 2481 743 9. 75% 2633 671 4. 38% 2878 796 Wet Year Yield SD %change from baseline year kg ha-1 2781 638 14. 44% 2700 574 2. 91%- 45. 38% 3248 975 16. 79% 2635 1083 8. 21%- 2355 842 10. 63%- 12. 69% 2812 1384 6. 72% 2456 720 6. 13% 2360 681 3. 91%- 16. 00% 2516 803 2. 44%
Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture: Climate impact on rain-fed rice production Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade under three climate scenarios: Sakonnakorn Province, North-eastern Thailand
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Stakeholders engagement Engaging Local Community: Target social group – Rain-fed farmer community Conduct on-farm interview & focus group discussion with local farmer communities • Thailand: North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani province (covering 600 households in 18 villages in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts) • Lao PDR: Central region - Savannakhet province (covering 160 households in 4 villages in Songkhone district) Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Identifying vulnerable group Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate impact – potential vulnerable group: Multi-criteria analysis Household Economic Condition 1. Good / sustained Farmer community 2. Bad / not sustained Coping Capacity 3. High 4. Low 5. High 6. Low Livelihood dependency on rice production Potential Vulnerable Group 2+4+5 2+3+5 2+4+6 Potential Non-Vulnerable Group 1+3+6 1+4+5 1+3+5 1+4+6 2+3+6
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate climate risk – Lao PDR No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range Criteria I: Household economic condition 1 Sufficient household productivity Total annual household productivity value / Total annual household consumption value 1 = 1. 5 =< 2 =1 - 1. 5> 3 = 1> 2 6 -2 2 Surplus household productivity Percentage of annual household surplus productivity value / Total household consumption 50% = 1 =< 50 -20%= 2> 20% = 3> 2 6 -2 3 Self-sufficient rice consumption Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumption 1 =< 2 = 1> 1 2 -1 4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming Yes = 1 No = 2 1 2 -1 5 Sufficient productivity from non climate sensitive source to guarantee food security )Total livestock + Off-farm revenue) / Total food consumption 1 =1 =< 1 -0. 5 = 2> 3 = 0. 5> 1 3 -1 Criteria II: Rice production dependency 6 Household sustained livelihood without rice production Total other productivity value / Total household consumption *100 1 = % 70< 50%= 2– 70> 50% =3> 3 9 -3 7 Level of food security from nature production Total value of food from natural source / Total food consumption *100 1 = % 70< 50%= 2– 70> 50% = 3> 3 9 -3
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate climate risk – Lao PDR No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range Criteria III: Coping capacity 8 Capacity of saving to support household livelihood Total household saving (cash + rice in the store + livestock) / Total household consumption *100 1 = % 30< 30 -10% = 2> 10% = 3> 2 6 -2 9 External financial support mechanism Accessible to external loan to support climate impact Adequate = 1 Partial= 2 None or barely = 3 1 3 -1 10 Capacity to maintain livelihood with total lost rice production )Total household saving + Alternate & extra income + cash convertible product e, g, livestock) / (Household consumption 5 months + total cost of rice production( 1 = 1=< 2 =0. 5 – 1> 3 = 0. 5> 2 6 -2 11 Capacity of natural product to maintain food security Total nature product / Total food consumption *100 1 = % 70=< 70 -30 %= 2> 30% = 3 > 1 3 -1 Total possible Range Scoring = 19 – 55 • Low climate risk group = 19 – 31 • Moderate climate risk group = >31 – 43 • High climate risk group = >43 – 55
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 15% Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate High Total Vulnerability Score 55 - 19 31 - 19 43 - 31< 55 - 43< 26. 4 37. 2 46. 9 26. 5 36. 5 47. 0 Average Score Household Economic Condition 19 - 7 9. 1 13. 5 17. 0 9. 3 13. 7 17. 6 Livelihood Dependency on Rice 18 - 6 7. 0 10. 1 14. 4 7. 0 9. 5 14. 1 Coping Capacity 18 - 6 10. 4 13. 6 15. 5 10. 2 13. 2 15. 3 162 105 45 10 98 49 13 Number of Households Household vulnerable to climate impact = 45 households (28% of total survey)
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 30% Potential Vulnerable Group - Lao PDR Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate High Total Vulnerability Score 55 - 19 31 - 19 43 - 31< 55 - 43< 26. 4 37. 2 46. 9 26. 6 35. 9 47. 1 Average Score Household Economic Condition 19 - 7 9. 1 13. 5 17. 0 9. 7 14. 1 17. 9 Livelihood Dependency on Rice 18 - 6 7. 0 10. 1 14. 4 6. 9 9. 0 13. 6 Coping Capacity 18 - 6 10. 4 13. 6 15. 5 10. 0 12. 8 15. 5 162 105 45 10 84 61 15 Number of Households Household vulnerable to climate impact = 97 households (60% of total survey)
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change – Lao PDR (97 households or 60% of total survey) Comparison of socio-economic condition: Vulnerable VS Non-vulnerable groups Without climate stress Average from total households in each group With climate stress - lost of rice production by 30% Comparison Vulnerable to Non-vulnerable group Total surveyed population Non-Vulnerable Annual total productivity (per capita( $284 $296 $236 20. 27%- Annual consumption (per capita( $145 $150 $142 5. 33%- $81 $61 $54 11. 48%- Economic condition : Annual total rice production (value - per capita( Percentage of HH annual rice production to total productivity 31. 12% 21. 91% 26. 27% 19. 90% Percentage of annual HH on-farm production to total productivity 64. 16% 59. 96% 61. 22% 2. 10% Percentage of HH annual off-farm production to total productivity 35. 84% 40. 04% 38. 78% 3. 15%- HH cash saving (per capita( $39 $49 $39 20. 41%- HH other saving (includes cash convertible livestock) per capita $75 $113 $75 33. 63%- HH farm size per capita 0. 47 0. 46 2. 13%- HH rice productivity per land unit (ton/ha( 1. 66 1. 7 1. 63 4. 12%- $36 $45 $30 33. 33%- Farming system structure: HH cost production
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Lao PDR Increase total productivity by increasing rice production by improving farming / crop management method and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing livestock and / or off-farm income. Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability: #1 – Seek for off-farm products e. g. products from natural source #2 – Implement alternate crop #3 – Increase buffer in coping capacity, e. g. community based rice bank, livestock
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range Criteria I: Household economic condition 1 Sufficient household income Total household income / Total household expenditure 1 = 1. 5 =< 2 =1 - 1. 5> 3 = 1> 2 Surplus household income Percentage of Total household income - Total household expenditure) / Total household expenditure 10% = 1, <= >10% to <-10% = 2, =<-10% = 3 3 Self-sustained rice consumption Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumption 1 =< 2 = 1> 4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming 5 Gross Profit & Loss from rice producing 6 Net Profit & Loss from rice producing 1 3 -1 0. 5 – 1. 5 1 2 -1 Yes = 1 No = 2 0. 5 1 - 0. 5 Percentage of (Total value of rice production - Total cost of production) / Total cost of production 150% = 1, =< <150 to >100% = 2, =<100% = 3 0. 5 1. 5 - 0. 5 )Total value of rice production Cost of production) / (Total cost of production + Household fixed expenses 4 months( 100% = 1, 100 < to >50% = 2, =<50 -0% = 3, =<0% = 4 0. 5 2 - 0. 5
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range Criteria II: Rice production dependency 7 Household sustains livelihood without rice production Total extra income / Total fixed expenses 1> , 1 = 1=<to >0. 5 = 2, =<0. 5 =3 2 6 -2 8 Level of livelihood dependency on rice production Percentage of (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/Total expenditure 40% = 1, 40 -> 70% = 2, >70% =3 2 6 -2
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate climate risk – Thailand No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range Criteria III: Coping capacity 9 Capacity of alternate source of income to support household livelihood Total alternate income / (Total cost of rice production + Fixed household expenditure 4 month( 2 = 1> , 1 = 1=< 1 2 -1 10 External financial support mechanism Accessible to external loan to support climate impact Adequate = 1 Partial= 2 None or barely = 3 1 3 -1 11 Capacity of saving to support household livelihood )Cash saving + Total value of livestock) / (Total cost of rice production + Fixed household expenditure for one crop season: 4 month( 2 = 1> , 1 = 1=< 1 2 -1 12 Capacity to maintain livelihood with total lost rice production )Cash saving + Extra income + Cash convertible livestock + Loan allowance) / (Total household expenditure + Total cost of rice production( 1. 5 , 1 = 1. 5<to >1 = 2, 1 to > 0. 5 = 3, =<0. 5 = 4 1 4 -1 Total possible Range Scoring = 12 – 34 • Low climate risk group = 12 – 19 ● Moderate climate risk group = >19 – 26 ● High climate risk group = >26 – 34
Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed farmer Climate risk group – Thailand when rice production reduced by 15% Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Potential Vulnerable Group – Thailand Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate High Total Vulnerability Score 12 - 34 12 - 19 <19 - 26 <26 - 34 15 23. 2 28. 6 15. 1 22. 7 28. 7 Average Score Household Economic Condition 4 - 11 6. 3 6. 6 8. 9 6. 3 6. 7 9. 1 Livelihood Dependency on Rice 4 - 12 4. 5 10. 5 12. 0 4. 3 10. 1 12. 0 Coping Capacity 4 - 11 4. 4 6. 1 7. 7 4. 5 5. 9 7. 5 98 34 29 35 32 27 39 Number of Households Household vulnerable to climate impact = 28 households (28. 6%)
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change (28 households in Zone 1 Thailand) Comparison of socio-economic condition Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Average from total households in each group Without climate stress With climate stress - lost of rice production by 15% Comparison Vulnerable to Nonvulnerable group Total surveyed population Non. Vulnerable HH income per capita 252$ 241$ 203$ 15. 77%- Income from rice per capita 142$ 119$ 125$ 5. 04% Income from rice to Total income(%) 70. 49 65. 77 75. 83 15. 30% Extra income to Total income(%) 29. 51 34. 33 24. 17 29. 60%- 164$ 156$ 185$ 18. 59% 19$ 11$ 38$ 245. 45% Total Cash convertible livestock per capita 230$ 252$ 176$ 30. 16%- Debt per capita 190$ 207$ 148$ 28. 50%- 6. 42 6. 41 0. 16%- Farm size per capita (Ha( 1. 0 1. 2 0. 85 29. 17%- Rice productivity per Ha (ton/ha( 1. 2 1. 1 1. 4 27. 27% 188 140 165 17. 86% Economic condition : Total expenditure per capita Cash saving per capita Weighted interest rate(%) Farming system structure: Gross profit from rice production per Ha(%)
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Zone 1, Thailand Increase income per capita by increasing extra income, perhaps to be higher than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with higher expenditure and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing cash convertible livestock. Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability: #1 – Seek for off-farm income – laboring in the city #2 – Increasing buffer in coping capacity – number of livestock #3 – Alternate crop
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Climate risk group & their characteristics to be analyzed in the same method for the farmer in other zones ● • • Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution Concerned issue: Research gap Vulnerability profile not explained & multi-dimension aspect, e. g. multiple climate stress, temporal aspect of the climate impact – time of occurrence, consecutive year of extreme event, dynamic of society, etc. not yet systematically covered.
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Summary: Climate change shows strong tendency to have impact on rain-fed rice agriculture system, particularly the increasing in magnitude and frequency of extreme climate variability. Rain-fed farmer’s livelihood would be affected from the damage or reduction in rice production due to climate impact. Engaging local stakeholders to get better understanding on current adaptation strategies & evaluate whether they would be sufficient to cope with future climate impact or not.
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Project wrap-up plan: Planning adaptation strategy & evaluation Some concerned issues – site specific / limitation / feasibility • The threshold of natural system condition to sufficiently support community in compensating the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR Also degradation of the natural system as well as change in population to the threshold that such system may be overly exploited. • Economic condition in the city in Thailand to support excess labor from upcountry, who try to seek for extra income to support their livelihood when income from rice production is not sufficient. Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope with the future vulnerability to climate change impact need to be developed
Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Thank You
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