VOTING BEHAVIOUR GOV 1 KEY QUESTIONS What are

VOTING BEHAVIOUR GOV 1

KEY QUESTIONS • What are the factors behind voting behaviour? • Assess the effect of election campaigns and opinion polls on the outcomes of general elections. • What role do the media play in winning or losing elections? • How important is social class in voting behaviour?

Models of VB • Party Identification • Social Structures • Rational Choice • Issue Voting • Party Leadership • Tactical Voting

Influences on VB • Election Campaigns • Opinion Polls • The Media • Apathy

General Election Case Studies • 1979 – Mrs Thatcher kicks 18 years of Tory rule • 1997 – Mr Blair returns Labour to power with a historic landslide • 2001 – A low point for democracy! • 2005 – A victory for who? • 2010 – a new way to do politics.

Voting Behaviour & Turnout • • Turnout used to be 75% for GE’s Turnout at LE’s is much lower 18 -25 year olds aren't registering to vote Turnout – 1997 – 2001 – 2005 – 2010 71% 59% 61% 65%

Tumbling Turnout • • • Apathy Changing fabric of community Refusal to vote Party dealignment Class dealignment Abandonment of party ideology No choice between parties Campaigns focus on wrong issues Media overkill Opinion polls Weather

Encouraging People to Vote!

Why do people vote the way they do? • Is it because people identify with a particular party? The Party Identification Model • Is it because people’s voting habits are shaped by social factors? The Social Structures Model • Is it because people make rational choices? The Rational Choice Model • Is it because modern politics is dominated by a dominant ideology? The Dominant Ideology Model • When people don’t vote, is it Apathy? • What is Tactical Voting? ‘Vote Local!’

The Social Structures Model The basis argument here is that voting habits are influenced by a variety of social structures and factors. These include - CLASS RELIGION OCCUPATION GENDER REGION & GEOGRAPHY ETHNICITY AGE

Social Class • Electorate divided into A, B, C 1, C 2, D & E’s • A, B, C 1 = Conservative Voters • C 2, D, E = Labour Voters • Model dominated political thinking in 1960’s and 70’s • Class dealignment • Emergence of New Working Class

Social Class “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail” Pulzer 1975 http: //www. bbc. co. uk/comedy/collections/p 007 jyx 1#p 007 n 113 http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=EKFTt. Yx 2 OHc&NR=1&feature=fvwp

Gender, Age & Ethnicity • Factors which ‘supposedly’ shape how you vote • Gender: women tend to vote Conservative • Age: 18 -35 Labour 45 -65 Conservative • Ethnicity: Black & Asian voters tend to be Labour supporters

Regional Factors • Political parties tend to have ‘clumped’ support • Labour – industrial towns in North of England, Scotland & Wales • Conservatives – London, South East suburbia & rural communities in England • Liberal Democrats – evenly spread support

Party Deference “The Conservatives have had more experience over the centuries. Its in the blood for them, running the country. There’s more family background in the Conservatives, more of the aristocratic, more heritage. They're gentlemen born. I think they're made for that sort of job” R Samuel – The Deference Voter 1960

Partisan and Class Theories “Broadly speaking the electorate was divided into large blocs which provided reliable and stable voting support for the Conservative and Labour parties. The interconnected phenomena of class and partisan alignment were like twin pillars…. which supported and sustained stable party support on the part of individual voters and stable two-party system overall” Denver 1994

Party Identification Model • Voters identify with a political party in their youth and remain loyal voters as they age • Choice of political party tends to be driven by social and economic factors • http: //www. bbc. co. uk/comedy/collections/p 007 jyx 1#p 007 n 19 z 1950’s 2000+ • Party Dealignment 90%+ of voters 55% of voters

Partisan Alignment “Generally speaking do you usually think of yourself as Conservative, Labour, a Liberal or what? ” Butler & Stokes 1974

The Party Identification Model Check out The Basic Argument • People identify with a political party - for lots of reasons - and stick with that party for life. • 1950 s - 90%+ of voters felt a strong party attachment to either the Conservative or Labour Parties. • 1997 - less than 75% of voters felt a similar attachment. • This process is known as PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT. WHY DOES IT HAPPEN? TACTICAL VOTING it’s linked to this argument • Voters are tired of the two main parties. • Voters have an increased awareness of political issues. • Better education. • Voters less likely to think in class terms. • Some voters no longer identify with party. • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=bl. G Va. UQ 2 bz. I&feature=related

Issue Voting • Vote for a party based solely on their manifesto policies • http: //www. bbc. co. uk/comedy/collections/p 007 jyx 1#p 007 n 16 m • Model arose post 1979 • Parties traditionally focus on certain policy areas – Labour: health & education – Conservatives: taxes, economy & law – Liberal Democrats: environment • Independent MPs

Rational Choice Model • Voting behaviour influenced by: – – Parties track record Election manifesto Party leaders Key party players • Voters make a rational decision not based on class or age or gender or party allegiance BUT on who will benefit them and their families

Rational Voter Theory “…. issues that are defined in terms of alternative courses of government action and issues that are defined in terms of goals and values that govt may achieve……. It is natural that the analysis of issues should have a bias towards issues that have meaning in terms of alternative policies” Butler & Stokes 1974

Rational Choice Model The Basic Argument Class, age, gender - none of these are as important as the RATIONAL CHOICE made by voters. http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=n 4 Il. H i. MXTrc&feature=related How is the party performing? Do I agree with their manifesto? What policies does the Party have? What do I think about the Party leaders? I’m being rational! Can you guess what the key issues were for rational voters in the 2001 election? 11 -EURO 10 -EU 9 - Asylum 8 - Transport 7 - Tax 6 - Pensions 5 - Employment 4 - Economy 3 - Education 2 - Law & Order 1 - NHS 40% 43% 52% 64% 65% 70% 74% 81% 82% 89% http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=6 Qba 6 Yj 6 re=channel

The Dominant Ideology Model Dominant Ideology Case Study The Media & the 2001 Election The Basic Argument • The institutions that control the key institutions of the UK share a DOMINANT IDEOLOGY. • These institutions are the MEDIA, BIG BUSINESS and POLITICAL PARTIES • • Majority of the press supported Labour - record levels of support from national dailies and Sunday papers. DID THE MEDIA SET THE AGENDA IN 2001? • • • NO - hardly anyone was interested in the election anyway. Press coverage was subdued, few front page stories. NO - but they did try. However, journalists and voters had very different views as to what the key election issues were. The 2001 election result was never in doubt - little evidence exists that the media were able to influence the result either way.

The Voting Context Model And the basic argument is. . . Voters THINK about the election campaign and the REASON for calling the election. Voters ask themselves a series of questions. The questions Voters are therefore attempting to put some CONTEXT onto the meaning of the election. Why is this election taking place? Will I bother voting? If I do vote, why will I vote? What type of election is this? Will I vote the same way in all elections?

The Party Leader Effect • Rise in profile of the party leader • Assessment of competence to lead country – economy, war, Europe, personality and personal lives • Media obsession with leaders • Mrs T set the mould http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=7 no. Hk. La. Z 5 VI • Changing role of leader in govt • PM or President? • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Ea. L 8 BN 4 Gr 0 U&p=24 B 2 AFBF 94834 CE 9&playnext =1&index=4 • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=0 f. Iy. T 66 s 4 So&feature=related

Apathy 1997 Turnout 71. 4% 2001 Turnout 59. 4% The most apathetic? • 18 -24 year olds - 39%. • Low working class turnout also. • Big regional differences: Liverpool Riverside 34. 1% Winchester 72. 3% WHY? • ‘Too inconvenient’ 21% • ‘Away on the day’ 16% • ‘Not registered’ 15% • ‘No polling card’ 11% • ‘Not interested’ 10% • PASSIVE ABSTENTION ‘can’t be bothered’ • ACTIVE ABSTENTION refusal on principle / protest

Tactical Voting • A product of FPTP system • Voting for party A to keep out party B who you dislike because party C, your first choice, has no chance of winning • 1997 Hazel Grove Constituency – Tory 1000 vote majority over Lib Dems – If you are a Labour supporter, who do you vote for?

Tactical Voting 1992 May have reduced the Conservative majority by half. 1997 • More important role in outcome of the election. • ‘More anti-tory voting than ever before’ (Butler and Stokes). And your basic argument is. . . Voters choose to vote for a candidate that may not be their first choice candidate in order to prevent their least favourite party or candidate being elected 2001 • Strong evidence of tactical voting. • Labour voters switched to Liberals in key constituencies. • ‘Independent’ encouraged a tactical vote.

Influence of campaigning, media, opinion polls……. . “Political change was neither related to the degree of exposure nor to any particular programmes or arguments put forward by the parties…. . The interelection years become more important than the 17 days campaigning, however intensive, because the swing is almost entirely accounted for before the opening of the election campaign” Trenamen & Mc. Quail 1961

Election Campaigns • Jury out on influence of actual campaigns • 1979 -87 – Labour poorly organised and unprofessional/ Conservatives use of powerful national negative advertising • 1990 to today – Labour got slick and carefully managed campaigns/ Conservatives campaigning tired and focused on wrong issues – http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=z. IBZ 1 QXi 610 – http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=OBc. Yytun. F-Y – - 2010 campaign http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=4 lya. V 0 ig. UDA&p=06 BE 5 FAB 442 BA 2 DB&playn ext=1&index=3 • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Rqis 1 mk. S 2 CE&feature=related

General Election 2010

The 2005 General Election Case Study

The 2001 General Election Case Study

The 1997 General Election Case Study

Was the 1997 General election a text book example of the power of a well organised campaign OR was it just time for a change ?

Opinion Polls • Disagreement on polls influence on elections • Polls often seen as election forecasts • Polls are a snapshot of voting intention • Best guide available for politicians and media • Cant be bothered or bandwagon effect • Different sampling methods • Sample sizes

Video Task • Who conducted the BBC’s exit poll? • What was the sample size? • What was the forecast result for: seats – – share of vote Labour Conservative Lib Dems Others • What Labour majority did the poll forecast? • What percentage swing to the Tories did the poll forecast? • What percentage swing did the Tories need to win?

The Media

The Media TYPES OF MEDIA

The Media • Difference of opinion on influence of media • Looking at media content suggests there is some level of influence • Editors decisions on what and what not to focus on • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=5 e. BT 6 OSr 1 TI&feature=related • Influence of the newspapers – If The Sun backs you, you win! • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=CDw-1 b. Yat. Is&feature=related • Labour recognised this, implemented a programme to charm and educate the media

ISSUES Ownership Concentration Distortion of Reality Political Bias National Interest Public Ignorance People may be too busy to find out themselves