Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesias elections

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Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and

Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties stand for Dr Stephen Sherlock Dr Greg Fealy Part I How the electoral system works

Indonesia is now a well functioning presidential democracy n n n Best functioning democracy

Indonesia is now a well functioning presidential democracy n n n Best functioning democracy in Southeast Asia (compare Thailand, Malaysia, Burma) 1999 – will the election be free & fair and without violence? Will the military withdraw from politics? 2004 – will direct presidential election succeed? 2009 – refining & developing the system Now in second stage of democratic governance reform – eg. Anti-corruption Commission, Constitutional Court

2009 – Year of voting frequently n n There will be 5 (possibly 6)

2009 – Year of voting frequently n n There will be 5 (possibly 6) elections in 2009. 9 April – Legislative elections ¨ National Parliament (DPR) ¨ Regional Representative Council (DPD) ¨ Provincial “Parliaments” (DPRD-I) ¨ District “Parliaments” (DPRD-II) n n 8 July – Presidential elections (1 st round) 8 September – Presidential elections (2 nd round) Third parliamentary election (1999, 2004, 2009) Second direct presidential election (2004, 2009)

2009 elections cycle: parliamentary & presidential – 5 year fixed term 9 April Elections

2009 elections cycle: parliamentary & presidential – 5 year fixed term 9 April Elections DPR DPD DPRD – II Election results 2. 5% threshold (seats) 20% threshold (president) Cow-trading (dagang sapi) 8 July 1 st Round 50% threshold 20% in 66% provinces 2014 October MPR (DPR + DPD) inaugurates President & VP October DPR & DPD inaugurated 8 Sept 2 nd Round 50% threshold

Year of voting: A mammoth undertaking n 171, 068, 667 registered voters ¨ East

Year of voting: A mammoth undertaking n 171, 068, 667 registered voters ¨ East Java 29, 294, 127 West Papua 509, 580 33 provinces n 489 districts (kabupaten/kota) n 77 electoral districts (daerah pemilihan) n 600, 000 voting stations n 11, 868 candidates in DPR n n Administered by the independent General Elections Commission (KPU)

4 April – DPR (House of Representatives) n n 560 Members (increased from 550)

4 April – DPR (House of Representatives) n n 560 Members (increased from 550) Elected by proportional representation (PR) ¨ Multi-member electoral districts (3 to 10 seats per district) ¨ Parties win seats in proportion to their vote n Electoral districts cannot cross provincial boundaries ¨ Large provinces have a number of districts – eg W. Java 11 districts with 6 to 10 seats (total = 91 seats) ¨ Medium-sized provinces have fewer districts – eg Sth Sulawesi 3 districts with 7 to 9 seats (total = 24 seats) ¨ Small provinces have 1 district – eg Maluku 1 district with 3 seats (total = 3 seats)

Changes to the electoral system will have huge political effects n n New regulations

Changes to the electoral system will have huge political effects n n New regulations have changed the way the campaign is being fought Will alter the composition of the DPR Affect the way coalitions are formed for presidential candidates Constitutional Court decisions on the electoral law have changed the rules of the game

From “closed list” to “open list” PR n n Gradual reform since 1999 election

From “closed list” to “open list” PR n n Gradual reform since 1999 election In 1999 “closed list” system meant voters could only vote for a party. Parties listed their candidates in strict order – ie those at the top would be elected. Widely criticised for allowing domination by parties MPs ignored their constituency ¨ Many candidates bought their position on the party ticket ¨ n In 2004, voters could also vote for a candidate – but only if they also voted for the party (ie. invalid if they only chose a individual) In 2004, only one seat was won through individual vote ¨ Even though 52% of voters supported an individual ¨

2009 electoral law moved further towards “open list” system n n Voters could vote

2009 electoral law moved further towards “open list” system n n Voters could vote for candidate or party Candidates who received 30%+ of a quota in personal votes would be put into a count for the allocation of seats eg. if a party won 3 seats and had 2 candidates with 30%+, those 2 candidates would take up seats and the 3 rd allocated to the candidate on No. 1 on party list Greatly increased the chances of election on personal votes, but still weighting for party list But…

Constitutional Court ruled the law to be unconstitutional n n n Declared party list

Constitutional Court ruled the law to be unconstitutional n n n Declared party list weighting to contrary to the Constitution Candidates with the largest number of votes should be allocated seats This system will greatly increase the no. of voters who vote for an individual But it still leaves open the question of what to do with “party only” votes Govt seems to be leaving to question to the KPU

Const. Court ruling – the political effects n n Campaign strategies completely changed shifted

Const. Court ruling – the political effects n n Campaign strategies completely changed shifted from party focus to candidate focus Previously dominated by national leaders, now by local candidates ¨ candidates have demanded their money back from the party – position on party list no longer a valuable commodity n Candidates of same party competing against each other ¨ reporting each other to election oversight body on alleged campaign violations n Govt. shifting decision-making responsibility to KPU has created uncertainty

Electoral District of North Somewhere – District no II Red Party Blue Party Green

Electoral District of North Somewhere – District no II Red Party Blue Party Green Party Yellow Party White Party Symbol Symbol Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Candidate 2 Candidate 3 Candidate 3 Candidate 4 Candidate 4 Candidate 5 Candidate 5 Candidate 6 Candidate 7 Candidate 8

Other changes: Threshold for winning parliamentary seats Only parties that win 2. 5% of

Other changes: Threshold for winning parliamentary seats Only parties that win 2. 5% of the total vote nationally are allocated seats n A party may win more than 2. 5% in several electoral districts but not win seats because below national threshold n This regulation would remove all but one of the minor parties in the current DPR n ¨ Crescent Star Party (PBB) won 2. 6% in 2004

Affirmative action for women candidates n n New electoral law says party lists must

Affirmative action for women candidates n n New electoral law says party lists must contain 30% female candidates The sanction for non-compliance is weak ¨ But n n n all parties have complied 1 in 3 candidates in a list should be female – ie not all women in “unwinnable” districts – “zipper” “Zipper” rule was expected to increase chances for women candidates by placing them high on the party list But Const. Court ruling has eliminated the effect

Presidential election system n n n Candidates must be nominated by a political party

Presidential election system n n n Candidates must be nominated by a political party or coalition of parties Party or coalition must receive 20% of DPR seats or 25% of votes to nominate a candidate Only Golkar & PDIP are likely to receive this level of support Small parties will have to join with one of the 2 big parties or form a larger coalition This will limit the number of candidates ¨ In 2004 there were 6 candidates 2009 there could only be 4 candidates

Coalition building for presidential candidates Party C Party B Party F Party A (eg.

Coalition building for presidential candidates Party C Party B Party F Party A (eg. Golkar PDIP) Party E Party L Party K Party J Party H Party D (eg Dem) Party G Party P Party O Party N 20% Party M (eg PKS) 1 2 3 4 threshold

Presidential elections: factors in coalition-building n Big party in DPR with low-profile leader (eg

Presidential elections: factors in coalition-building n Big party in DPR with low-profile leader (eg Golkar) needs a ticket with high profile candidate (2004 Wiranto poor result) ¨ PDIP n n n may be tempted to think it has both High profile candidate with small party (eg SBY) needs a ticket with a big party to meet 20% threshold One of the two candidates must have strong financial backing (eg Kalla for SBY) Balance of nationalist-Islam (eg SBY-Kalla, Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto-Salahuddin Wahid)

Regional Representative Council (DPD) n n Two legislative chambers, but not a bicameral system.

Regional Representative Council (DPD) n n Two legislative chambers, but not a bicameral system. DPD has advisory powers only. ¨ Can draft bills on regional matters to submit to the DPR ¨ Can submit its opinions to the DPR on bills and on government policy on regional matters ¨ But does not pass reject or amend bills n DPD an unusual combination of strong legitimacy from direct election but weak powers

DPD – how it is elected 128 seats n 4 seats per province, regardless

DPD – how it is elected 128 seats n 4 seats per province, regardless of size n ¨ W. Java – population 36 m (9 m/member) ¨ N Maluku – population 1 m (250, 000/member) n n DPD Members must be “individuals” – ie independents, not party representatives “single non-transferable vote” (SNTV) system ¨ Voters vote for one candidate from provincial list

DPD – how it is elected (cont. ) Province of North Somewhere Candidate 1

DPD – how it is elected (cont. ) Province of North Somewhere Candidate 1 Candidate 8 Candidate 15 Candidate 2 Candidate 9 Candidate 16 Candidate 3 Candidate 10 Candidate 17 Candidate 4 Candidate 11 Candidate 18 Candidate 5 Candidate 12 Candidate 19 Candidate 6 Candidate 13 Candidate 20 Candidate 7 Candidate 14 Candidate 21

Regional legislative elections (DPRD) Elections for provincial & district legislatures also occur 9 April

Regional legislative elections (DPRD) Elections for provincial & district legislatures also occur 9 April (ie. 4 votes) n Elections for governors & district heads (Pilkada) held separately (E. Java this month) n Each province has assembly according to population – 35 to 100 seats n ¨ 11 m or more – 100 seats (E. W. C. Java) ¨ 9 -11 m – 85 seats (Banten) ¨ 1 m or less – 35 seats (W. Papua, N. Maluku)

Presidential election system cont. . n n n Candidates must stand as a presidential-vice

Presidential election system cont. . n n n Candidates must stand as a presidential-vice presidential joint ticket Internationally, the pair will usually be from the same party, or close coalition But all parties are small + threshold law So candidate pairing is the process by which parties build coalitions But this cannot happen until after DPR election Result is speculation until close before election