Vigilant State 3 INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION Vigilant State 3

Vigilant State 3 INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION

Vigilant State 3 • 2 Types of Problems for Analysts • Bureaucratic Pathologies • Psychological Dissonance Lecture will deal with bureaucracy and seminar will deal with psychology

1. Politics of Intelligence Analysis

Vigilant State 3 1. Politics of Intelligence Analysis common forms • Interest Groups e. g. agencies fight for budget share and influence • Bargaining Systems e. g. compromise for producing national estimates • Political Interference e. g. called for to support entrenched policies • Procurement & Industry e. g. employed to justify large defence spends

2. Democracies and Autocracies

Vigilant State 3 2. Democracies and Autocracies • • • In autocracies - ideological problems and power problems But politicisation no less strong in democracy ? social choice over budget government and opposition – the infamous gap debates public opinion and mass media in fp making ISC's question – our own project prone to investigation – e. g. Franks Report, FAC, Butler

3. Responses to Political Pressure Sherman Kent

Vigilant State 3 • 3. Responses – • A) IDEALISM OR PUSH – O. N. E. • Sherman Kent, Lyman Kirkpatrick, Ray Cline more recently S. R. Ward • insulate/distance from unethical pressures - set the agenda

Vigilant State 3 • B) REALISM OR PULL – D. I. A. • to survive ‘go with the flow’ - agency competition will deliver objectivity • Carmen Medina serve the customer’s requirements + new IT • must have own policy as input • e. g. Nixon and China – not told

China? Nixon and DCI Richard Helms

4. Politicising Questions

Vigilant State 3 4. Problem of Politicising Questions • • Politicisation is easy because – Competing agencies provide alternative answers Because no-one knows what the right question is e. g Iraqi missile numbers ? range ? production ? or aircraft ? Secrecy prevents investigation Example of Johnson and Vietnam CBS vs. General Abrams - Sam Adams – War of Numbers Remit of Butler Enquiry

5. Bureaucratic Politics

Vigilant State 3 • 5. Bureaucratic Politics • No real DCI/DNI even with Mike Mc. Connell • NIE process = bland /coaltions • A Team / B Team each change introduces new pathologies • Committee process is very slow • Each Bureau grows its own - 14 in Saigon • Even struggles within intelligence orgs • Iran SI vs. SO Vietnam SI vs. SO

The UK Joint Intelligence Committee Chief of the Assessments Staff (Cabinet Office) Analysis Chairman (Cabinet Office) PM’s Foreign Policy Advisor (Hd OD) CDI (Ministry of Defence) DUS(Defence & Intelligence) and Whitehall Liaison Department Foreign Office Joint Director GCHQ Intelligence Committee Collection Security & Intelligence Co-ordinator (Cabinet Office) ‘C’ (SIS) Policy Director Ministry of Defence Policy DG Org & Int Crime Directorate Home Office Director HM Treasury Director General Security Service DFID Director of Export Control & Non-Proliferation Department of Trade & Industry

6. Role of the Individual

Vigilant State 3 6. Role of the Individual • Military values Loyalty – Tenacity - Speed of decision - Wisdom resides with rank/experience • Academic values Flat hierarchy - Unorthodox thinking – Reflective Disrespectful Civilianize? Non-career ? • Osmosis/Strategic Culture Individuals rarely have to be told about values Analogies - the weight of the shadow of the past

7. Intelligence at the Top John Scarlett Chair of JIC 2003

Vigilant State 3 7. Intelligence at the Top • Personality key at the top - Interface with decision-makers • Must have credibility • Must be able to inspire action • Hitler’s entourage clearly impossible Churchill, Johnson, Nixon also difficult • Blair's Ministerial Committee on Intelligence • How pressurised was the UK JIC in 2003?

8. The Problem of Deception

Vigilant State 3 • 8. Problem of Deception • 2 forms of deception • • A) Counter-intelligence deception Paralyse by creating security problems James Jesus Angleton Spycatcher & Roger Hollis

Vigilant State 3 B) Strategic Deception • • Need to monitor the bait Exploit the enemy good intell system Exploit the enemy presumptions Reinforce what they want to believe - eg Iraqi WMD

Vigilant State 3 • Q. How do analysts guard against these problems bureaucratic problems? • A. Endless re-designing of machinery • Q. How do analysts deal with psychological problems? • A. Endless training to think outside the box • Q. So why does it still fail? • A. I will explain next week!!!