Verification Progress report Task 1 1 and 1

Verification Progress report Task 1. 1 and 1. 2 Silke Dierer and Francis Schubiger Meteo. Swiss francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’

Outline Verification Work in Task 1. 1 Verification for Winter 04/05 and Dec. 05/Jan. 06 Example of a characteristic period Further steps francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Work in Task 1. 2 1 Sources for cases with bad precipitation forecast Preliminary list of cases Further steps

francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Verification Task 1. 1 Selection of single test cases

Selection of test cases: sources I Verification Information from forecasters about bad precipitation forecast daily average for 15 regions in Switzerland forecast, model results and observations disadvantage: currently no automatic evaluation possible => Situations with bad precipitation forecast in Switzerland francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Verification of precipitation by forecasters 3 Not objective For different forecast ranges

Selection of test cases: sources II Verification => Situations with bad precipitation forecast for the a. LMo domain francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 4 SYNOP-Verification - surface verification for Europe with SYNOP data

Selection of test cases Verification francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 that are reported by forecasters or have a bad forecast for several regions (forecasters‘ verification) and show high deviation in SYNOP verification 5 Preliminary list of test cases includes periods

Source Under-/Overestimation 19. -22. 1. 22. -23. 1. 11. -15. 2. 24. 3. 9. 4. 16. /17. 4. 23. -25. 4. 16. /17. 5. 21. -23. 5. 14. 6. 25. 6. 2. 7. 18. 7. 29. 7. 2. /3. 8. 6. 8. 11. 8. 14. -22. 8. FV FV FV Fo/FV FV Fo FV FV Fo Fo/FV + + +/+ ? /+ + + ? /+ (mainly) 28. 8. 2. 9. 8. -12. 9. 16. /17. 9. 1. -3. 10. 18. 10. 22. /23. 10. 3. 11. 6. 11. Fo FV Fo/FV Fo Fo + + -/- (mainly) -, dann + +, dann –/erst -/dann + ? - classification (based on NCEP data) dd at 500 h. Pa surface pressure (high, low, flat) NW/NW/NW/NW L/H/H/L NW/NW L/L W/W/NW/NW/N H/H/L/L/L SW H, flat NO L SO/O L, flat W/W/SW H SW H, flat W L SW H, flat SW/S H->L, inbetween W H W/NW/N/N/N/W/SW/SO/O H/L/L/H, flat/H/L/L/L NW H, flat S/S/? /SW/SW H, flat/L, flat, /L/L W/SW L/L N/W/W H/L/L SW H SW/SW L/L SW H, flat francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Date 6 Verification Selection of test cases: Preliminary list for 2005

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: a. LMo, red: LM francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 7 ANETZ verification for 21 st January 05 Verification

Selection of test cases: next steps Verification => skip these cases Specify different kinds forecast errors (e. g. synoptic conditions) and select characteristic test cases francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Might be necessary to rerun simulations due to missing output plots that can be compared with analysis Possibly ANETZ verification 8 Complete list for 2004 and 2006 Check if insufficient forecast is due to deviations of the synoptic situation

francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Verification Task 1. 2. Seasonal verification

10 francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 Verification of a. LMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP Verification

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: a. LMo, red: LM francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 11 Verification of a. LMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: a. LMo francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 12 Verification of a. LMo: December 05 – January 06

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: a. LMo, red: LM francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 13 February 2005 Verification

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: a. LMo, red: LM francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 14 Verification ANETZ verification for 10 th -14 th February 05

Seasonal verification: next steps Verification francis. schubiger@Meteoswiss. ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08. 03. 2006 24 h area averages for Switzerland, for different heights (0800 m, 800 m-1500 m and above 1500 m) Selecting days with bad precipitation forecast Specifying synoptic situation Select characteristic periods 15 Selection of characteristic days Based on scatter plots for winter 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 (measurement vs. simulation)