Venezuelan Elections The Chvez Era Elections that Created

Venezuelan Elections The Chávez Era

Elections that Created the Fifth Republic • National elections of 1998 • Constituent Assembly and Constitutional Referendum of 1999 – Continued domination by the Patriotic Pole – Manipulated electoral law shuts out opposition from writing of the new constitution • December referendum on the new constitution – Overwhelming approval – Abstention high

Charismatic Campaigner

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Presidential • Conditions – Plurality – six year term – Delay of balloting • The Contendors – MVR and MAS back Chavez – Francisco Arias Cardenas spearheads the opposition – Claudio Fermin: Punto Fijo revival? • Outcome – Chavez wins 60% of the total popular vote

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: National Assembly Conditions Mixed list-plurality system Five-year term The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole AD fields candidates in all states New political parties in the regions (states) Outcome Patriotic Pole wins majority – but unable to modify the constitution AD has largest opposition delegation Middle class parties elect numerous Assemblymen

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Regions Conditions Governors elected – first past the post (five year terms) Mixed list-plurality system for state legislatures The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole AD fields candidates in all states New political parties in the regions (states) Outcome Patriotic Pole wins 16 of the 21 governors Zulia remains with the opposition Central states (Aragua & Carabobo) back opposition AD elects governors in the Llanos

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Municipalities Conditions Mayors elected in mega-elections of July 30, 2000 Councilmen elected in December local elections Neighborhood councils elected in December local elections The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic Pole AD fields candidates in most municipalities New political parties in the regions run candidates for mayor/councilmen Outcome Patriotic Pole wins a majority of majors, but just barely AD elects almost 30% of the majors s Junta parochiales split among opposition and government forces

Abstention *increases progressively after the 1998 national elections *reaches 80% in the municipal elections of December 2000 *Exhaustion with electoral politics

Electoral Panorama: Marginalization of Chávez Opponents Revocatory referendum (August, 15, 2004) 60% for retention Regional and Local elections (October 31, 2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution Municipal Council elections (August 7, 2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution National Assembly Elections (November, 2006) opposition abstains; Chavez forces win all seats.

National Assembly of Venezuela Election Results (December 2005) Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento V [Quinta] República) 2, 041, 293 votes 60. 0 % - 116 seats (out of 167) For Social Democracy (Por la Democracia Social) 277, 482 votes 8. 2% - 18 seats Fatherland for All (Patria para Todos) 197, 459 votes 6. 8 % (10 seats) Communist Party of Venezuela (Partido Comunista de Venezuela) 94, 606 votes 2. 7% (7 seats) LAGO 61, 789 votes 1. 8% (2 seats)

Reelection emboldens Chavez to call for a Referendum to Change the Constitution November 2, 2007 – National Assembly approves a constitutional overhaul. Leads to riots (light) in Caracas

33 Articles of 1998 Constitution were to be amended Proposed major changes • Allowing the indefinite re-election of the president - not applicable to any other political post • Increasing the presidential term from six to seven years • Introducing changes to the country's administrative structure • Ending the autonomy of the central bank • lacing the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves • Reducing the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours

Voters Narrowly Reject the Reforms . First electoral defeat for Chavez followed by government efforts to weaken the opposition RCTV (television station) licensed was not renewed 272 people seeking public office banned from running for office in upcoming state & municipal elections Elections scheduled for November 23, 2008

Creating PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela Process initiated after Chavez won the presidential election of December 2006 Purpose – merge all parties that support the Bolivarian Revolution On 24 March 2007, the first 2, 000 party members took their oaths on a party ceremony. Founding congress held in April 2008

Political Parties Joining PSUV People's Electoral Movement for Direct Movement (MEP) Everybody Wins Independent Movement (MIGATO) Venezuelan Popular Unity (UPV)[7] Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro (MRT) Socialist League (LS) Democracy (MDD) Union Party Militant Civic Movement (MCM) Action Force of Base Coordination (FACOBA) Independents for the National Community (IPCN)

Revolutionary Parties Not joining PSUV For Social Democracy (PODEMOS) Fatherland for All (PPT) Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV) Revolutionary Middle Class (CMR) Emergent People (GE) National Socialist Group of Liberation Pro Venezuela (PROVEN) Communitary Patriotic Unity (UPC)

Public Attitudes Toward Creation of PSUV • Recent Poll from Últimas Noticias • Communal +Popular Power §http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=t. Aa. K 4 j. Tc. Cf 4

Elections 23 November, 2008 22 governorships All state legislators 328 Mayors

PSUV: Candidate Selection for Elections of November 23, 2008 • About 2. 5 million members of the party choose candidates • 22 governors • 328 mayors • If no single pre-candidate obtains at least 50% plus 1 of the votes, or 15% more votes than the next highest pre-candidate, the national executive body of the PSUV and President Chavez, can select the candidate out of the three who achieved the highest vote.

Caracas: Municipalities

PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Caracas ARISTOBULO IZTURIZ ALMEIDA 94. 64% 129. 873 votos ANGEL LUIS AGOSTINI RINCONES 00. 88% 1. 208 votos SORA ANGELLA MARTINEZ 00. 53% 729 votos

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Miranda DIOSDADO CABELLO RONDON 87, 39% 22. 155 votos TULIO AMADO JIMENEZ RODRIGUEZ 5, 11% 1. 297 votos ARMANDO GARCIA 1, 11% 283 votos REBECA PADILLA 0, 93% 237 votos

PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Maracaibo HENRY JOSE RAMIREZ SANCHEZ 64, 41% 62. 560 votos CALIXTO ANTONIO ORTEGA RIOS 12, 5% 12. 142 votos JOE ANTONIO BERMUDEZ RINCON 4, 18% 4. 068 votos

Táchira State capital : San Cristobal Area: • % 11, 100 km² 1. 2 (Ranked 16 th) Population: • % 1, 177, 300 hab. (2007 est. ) 4. 5 (Ranked 9 th) Governor: Roland Blanco La Cruz(PSUV); 2004 – 2008)

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Tachira LEONARDO ALI SALCEDO RAMIREZ 39, 4% 50. 266 votos JOSE GREGORIO VIELMA MORA 33, 3% 42. 490 votos FRANCISCO JAVIER ARIAS CARDENAS 8, 65% 11. 037 votos

Barinas: Fiefdom of the Chavez family

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Barinas Gobernador o Gobernadora de Estado ADAN COROMOTO CHAVEZ FRIAS 91, 15% 59. 568 votos MARCOS RAMON FERNANDEZ 3, 4% 2. 226 votos RAMON ADOLFO FALCON 2, 9% 1. 899 votos

Platform for PSUV Expand Popular Power + Communal Power New Constitution + Termination of 2 term of Presidency Unitary Poltical Party PSUV

November 23, 2008 Elections RESULTS Venezuelan Comptroller General banned almost 300 candidates Opposition won five (out of 22) state governorships Zulia, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Carabobo & Miranda Dissident Chavistas peform poorly ( Barinas, Lara & Guarico) Opposition victories in race for mayor of metropolitan Caracas & Maracaibo Government unhappy with losses in key states & municipios

Second Constitutional Referendum: February 15, 2009 Economic deterioration leads President to schedule the referendum as quickly as possible Rainy day funds used to prevent economic downturn Initial proposal to permit indefinite reelection of president only in trouble Changed to allow for indefinite reelection of governors & mayors

Electoral Appeal & Voting Campaign slogans & outcome "Chávez loves us and love is repaid with love Chávez is incapable of doing us harm 54% of voters support indefinite reelection of the president and other office holders Bugles sounding from government vehicles roused people queues swiftly formed outside polling

Love & War with Colombia: Is there an electoral dimension? • What is going on? Chavez orders troops to prepare for War Popularity of Chavez government falling Barrio Adentro deteriorated Electricity and water shortages Divert the attention of voters in run up to 2010 elections? Protest against U. S. Bases