Using tsunami deposits to determine earthquake and tsunami
- Slides: 45
Using tsunami deposits to determine earthquake and tsunami recurrence intervals: opportunities and challenges Jody Bourgeois Earth & Space Sciences University of Washington Seattle, Washington Soldatskaia Bay Kamchatskii Peninsula
We can use (historic and pre-historic) deposits from tsunamis to: • Document tsunami hazard where unknown historically and where prehistoric tsunamis are larger • Help produce probabilistic hazard maps • Calculate tsunami recurrence intervals (typically centuries long) • Understand tsunami behavior • Calibrate, test and enhance tsunami runup modeling • Educate the public
We can use (historic and pre-historic) deposits from tsunamis to: • Document tsunami hazard where unknown historically and where prehistoric tsunamis are larger • Help produce probabilistic hazard maps • Calculate tsunami recurrence intervals (typically centuries long) • Understand tsunami behavior • Calibrate, test and enhance tsunami runup modeling • Educate the public
QUESTIONS: WHERE? HOW BIG? HOW OFTEN? intro
QUESTIONS: WHERE? HOW BIG? HOW OFTEN? intro Problem: Historic records are short and tsunami recurrence intervals are long.
Oldest catalogued tsunami*: Mediterranean 4 th c. B. C. Japan 7 th century China, Central & South America Philippines, Indonesia Russian Far East & Alaska North America, New Zealand 16 th century 17 th century 18 th century 19 th century *classified as definite Lander and Gusiakov, 1997 and online catalogues
How can geology help tell our (hi)story?
Copalis deposit mudflat deposits in years after tsunami deposit grassy field c. 300 years ago Copalis River bank, Washington State coast
Coring at Willapa Bay for the longer tsunami record Mary. Ann coring
This and other cores tell us that large earthquakes and tsunamis occur on the Washington coast every 100 -1000 years (average ~500 years) There are similar records for all of Cascadia and also the Gulf of Alaska ~300 years ago Willapa longer record Atwater, Carver, Clague, Darienzo, Gilpin, Hemphill-Haley, Hutchinson, Kelsey, Nelson, Peterson, Williams, Witter, … Turbidites: Goldfinger, Karlin ~3500 years ago
(compiled by Brian Atwater) Hokkaido n. Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone history
Hokkaido Tsunami deposits take the record back thousands of years n. Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone history
pre-20 th century tsunami deposits found farther inland Nanayama, Atwater, Satake and several others
Kamchatka n. Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone history
profiles tephra stratigraphy excavations tsunami deposits FIELD METHODS marine terraces
Polar w/o ice K-centric
Polar w/o ice K-centric
Polar w/o ice K-centric
“hungry America” model (USGS website) Hungry America
after Fujita Mackey & others Polar with plate boundaries EUR NAM OKH BER PAC
Polar with plate boundaries OKH
Polar with plate boundaries BER
How many and what kinds of plate boundaries? How does Kamchatka coastal neotectonics Three backpackers elucidate this problem?
Cloudy Kamchatka
LARGE Polar with plate boundaries NAM EUR NAM PAC
LARGE Polar with plate boundaries NAM EUR BER OKH PAC
uplifted marine terraces uplift rates mm/yr (m/kyr) for last 500 k years
Mw 7. 7 tsunamigenic earthquake KAMCHATKA LAND
1969 Ozernoi tsunami model (Titov) (snapshots) one possible source configuration
Mw 7. 7 tsunamigenic earthquake KAMCHATKA LAND
peat & tephra Stolbovaya field site Bering Sea coast bumpy tundra
Stolbovaya site Profile 1, trench 104 1969 Ozernoi tsunami deposit -> 1964 Shiveluch volcanic ash -> paleo-tsunami deposit -> Shiveluch c. 1650 A. D. -> paleo-tsunami deposit -> Ksudach caldera c. 250 A. D. ->
one of 14 profiles at Stolbovaya total of >50 excavations
Tsunami frequency per 1000 years
Tsunami frequency per 1000 years Stolbovaya recurrence rate ~1/2 KSZ & greater than many other subduction zones
Mw 7. 7 Ozernoi modeled by 1969 Ozernoi tsunami data and deposits indicates c. 3 m horizontal shortening Recurrence intervals for such tsunamis (from deposits) indicates shortening of c. 15 mm/yr over last 4000 yr
“hungry America” model Hungry America
Fujita, Mackey and others LARGE Polar with plate boundaries NAM EUR BER OKH PAC
Challenges Geochronology Correlation Statistics
Challenges Geochronology Correlation Statistics How many observations are sufficient? What is the preservation factor? (Signor-Lipps)
Challenges Going beyond tsunami recurrence to earthquake recurrence
Challenges Going beyond tsunami recurrence to earthquake recurrence and onward to paleotsunami and earthquake magnitudes
Challenges Paleogeography Paleobathymetry Paleotopography and onward to paleotsunami and earthquake magnitudes
Applications Paleoseismology Neotectonics Archaeology Coastal geomorphology Seismic & tsunami hazards Education & outreach
- Did the nepal earthquake cause a tsunami
- Chapter 11 section 2 stream and river deposits answer key
- A report of deposits withdrawals and bank balances
- Section 1 energy resources and fossil fuels answer key
- Ore deposits
- Function of commercial banks
- Personal bank account 7 habits examples
- Soil that forms on unconsolidated deposits is called
- Sedex ore deposits
- Lesson 4.6 online banking answers
- The multiple expansion of checkable deposits
- Emotional bank account examples
- Glacial deposits
- Calcium deposits
- Glacial deposits
- Calcium deposits
- Calcium deposits
- Cirque glacier
- Ritika deposits 200 every month
- Sarita deposits $1000 in an account
- Tidal deposits
- Mvt deposits
- Vms deposits
- The fraction of checkable deposits
- As coal deposits were used up, britain turned to
- Using the method of joints determine the force
- Focus and epicenter of an earthquake
- Falcon focus
- Determining the arrival times between p-wave and s-wave
- Focus and epicenter of an earthquake
- 1958 lituya bay earthquake and megatsunami
- Basilan and romblon tsunami
- Using system using system.collections.generic
- Unit 25 special refrigeration system components
- Seismic wave types
- Unit 8 natural disasters
- Department of meteorology maldives
- Hayward earthquake 1868
- Tectonic plates canada
- Earthquake intensity depends primarily on the height of
- Taiwan flood
- Taiwan earthquake
- Shallow focus earthquake
- Earthquake triangulation lab
- Taiwan earthquake
- Sabiha gökçen international airport earthquake proof