Using Linear Regression Analysis for Prediction of Passenger

2 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

演讲内容 1. Motivation Aerotropolis City Airport / Airport City 2. 『2009 Aerotropolis in Taiwan』

3. 线性回归分析法 Linear Regression Analysis Method? TTY Airport/ 80＇s ; 90＇s ; 2000＇s Database.

1. Motivation 5 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

Aerotropolis 则是 Aero 与Metropolis 的缩写，代表机场城市的意思 (Airport City)。 7 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

http: //www. aerotropolis. org. tw/ 13 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

3. 线性回归法 Linear Regression Analysis Method 以TTY Airport航空运量预测为例 The Forecasting Methodologies on TTY Air

直线型回归线/ Y = a + b T ------ (1). Yi = a + b

4. 结果与讨论预测 2031年的旅客运量? ? 2035年的货运量? ? 19 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

T (年代) Y (货运量) T (年代) Y (客运量) 1981 146, 596, 700 1981 4734201

T (年代) Y (货运量) T (年代) Y (客运量) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

T (年代) Y (货运量) T (年代) Y (客运量) 2001 1, 189, 873, 251 2001

总客运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 1981 4734201 3, 918, 106 1982 4952245

总客运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 误差百分比 r*r (可靠度) 1991 10614060 10, 989,

总客运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 2001 18460827 17, 527, 386 2002 19228411

总货运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 1981 146596700 125, 178, 933 1982 137346000

总货运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 1991 451032712 425, 102, 855 1992 522448895

总货运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 2001 118987325 1, 374, 000, 713 1

Thanks for your Attentions. 敬请指导 33 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

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海峡两岸学术交流专题演讲运用线性回归法预测桃园航空城客/货运量 Using Linear Regression Analysis for Prediction of Passenger/ Cargo Volumes on Taoyuan Aerotropolis 报告人: 许清贤副教授开南大学空运系 10/26/ 2009 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis 1

直线型回归线/ Y = a + b T ------ (1). Yi = a + b Ti ; i = 1, 2, 3, -----, 10. 以十年为基准(Database in 10 Years) a? ; b? 利用数值分析法可求得a 和b a = Y (bar/平均值) b T (bar) ------ (2). Y (bar) =ΣYi / n = (Y 1 + Y 2 + ----Y 10 )/10 T (bar) =ΣTi / n = (T 1 + T 2 + ----T 10 )/10 16 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

T (年代) Y (货运量) T (年代) Y (客运量) 1981 146, 596, 700 1981 4734201 1982 137, 346, 000 1982 4952245 1983 180, 676, 600 1983 5118408 1984 214, 479, 600 1984 5310415 1985 246, 917, 500 1985 5315471 1986 286, 961, 200 1986 5571512 1987 345, 652, 600 1987 6407955 1988 343, 453, 600 1988 7592611 1989 384, 372, 100 1989 8658797 1990 400, 597, 000 1990 10, 094, 556. 　 2035 All Rights Reserved 约 40万吨　 ? ? ? Taoyuan Aerotroplis 　约 1, 000万人次　 2031 ? ? 20

T (年代) Y (货运量) T (年代) Y (客运量) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 451, 032, 712 522, 448, 895 559, 192, 235 662, 256, 874 754, 489, 258 796, 459, 768 913, 519, 573 932, 052, 762 1, 057, 236, 939 1999 10614060 12072756 12494134 13349468 14478196 15613624 15990301 15725448 17044462 2000 1, 208, 838, 480 2000 18, 681, 462 约 120万吨　 2035 All Rights Reserved ? ? Taoyuan Aerotroplis 　约 1, 800万人次　 2031 ? ? 21

T (年代) Y (货运量) T (年代) Y (客运量) 2001 1, 189, 873, 251 2001 18460827 2002 1, 380, 748, 058 2002 19228411 2003 1, 500, 070, 877 2003 15513885 2004 1, 701, 020, 413 2004 20083228 2005 1, 705, 317, 637 2005 21700702 2006 1, 698, 806, 562 2006 22857445 2007 1, 605, 681, 101 2007 23425794 2008 1, 493, 119, 963 2008 21, 936, 083 约 150万吨　 2035 All Rights Reserved ? ? Taoyuan Aerotroplis 　约 2, 190万人次　 2031 ? ? 22

总客运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 1981 4734201 3, 918, 106 1982 4952245 4, 464, 220 1983 5118408 5, 010, 333 1984 5310415 5, 556, 447 1985 5315471 6, 102, 560 1986 5571512 6, 648, 674 1987 6407955 7, 194, 787 1988 7592611 7, 740, 901 1989 8658797 8, 287, 015 1990 10, 094, 556 8, 833, 128 2031 　 31, 223, 783 All Rights Reserved 误差百分比 41, 500, 000 Taoyuan Aerotroplis r*r (可靠度) 0. 8276 F检定值　 38. 39 F(1, 8, 0. 05) 5. 32 -24. 76 　 23

总客运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 误差百分比 r*r (可靠度) 1991 10614060 10, 989, 399 1992 12072756 11, 793, 175 1993 12494134 12, 596, 951 1994 13349468 13, 400, 727 1995 14478196 14, 204, 503 F检定值　 F(1, 8, 0. 05) 1996 15613624 15, 008, 279 　230. 64 　5. 32 1997 15990301 15, 812, 055 Excellent 1998 15725448 16, 615, 831 1999 17044462 17, 419, 607 2000 18, 681, 462 18, 223, 384 2031 　 43, 140, 443 All Rights Reserved 41, 500, 000 Taoyuan Aerotroplis 0. 9665 3. 95 24

总客运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 2001 18460827 17, 527, 386 2002 19228411 18, 348, 361 2003 15513885 19, 169, 335 2004 20083228 19, 990, 310 2005 21700702 20, 811, 284 2006 22857445 21, 632, 259 2007 23425794 22, 453, 233 2008 21, 936, 08 23, 274, 208 3 2031 　 42, 156, 622 误差百分比 r*r (可靠度) 0. 5854 F检定值　 F(1, 6, 0. 05) 8. 47 5. 99 1. 58 25 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis

总货运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 1981 146596700 125, 178, 933 1982 137346000 157, 073, 679 1983 180676600 188, 968, 425 1984 214479600 220, 863, 171 1985 246917500 252, 757, 917 1986 286961200 284, 652, 663 1987 345652600 316, 547, 409 1988 343453600 348, 442, 155 1989 384372100 380, 336, 901 1990 400, 597, 000 412, 231, 647 2035 　Rights Reserved All 1, 847, 495, 220 4, 020, 000 Taoyuan Aerotroplis 误差百分比 r*r (可靠度) 0. 9765 F检定值　 332. 30 F(1, 8, 0. 05) 5. 32 -54. 04 26

总货运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 1991 451032712 425, 102, 855 1992 522448895 505, 247, 276 1993 559192235 585, 391, 697 1994 662256874 665, 536, 118 1995 754489258 745, 680, 539 1996 796459768 825, 824, 960 443. 23 1997 913519573 905, 969, 381 Excellent 　 1998 932052762 986, 113, 802 1999 1057236939 1, 066, 258, 223 2000 1, 208, 838, 480 1, 146, 402, 644 2035 　Rights Reserved All 3, 951, 457, 378 4, 020, 000 Taoyuan Aerotroplis 误差百分比 r*r (可靠度) 0. 9823 F检定值　 F(1, 8, 0. 05) 5. 32 -1. 71 　 27

总货运量 T (年代) Y (运量) Yi=a+b. Ti 2001 118987325 1, 374, 000, 713 1 2002 138074805 1, 419, 809, 004 8 2003 150007087 1, 465, 617, 296 7 2004 2005 170102041 1, 511, 425, 587 3 170531763 1, 557, 233, 878 7 r*r (可靠度误差百分比 ) 0. 3762 F检定值　 F(1, 6, 0. 05) 169880656 2006 1, 603, 042, 170 2 160568110 All Rights Reserved Taoyuan Aerotroplis 2007 1, 648, 850, 461 3. 62 5. 99 28