Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts
Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts in the analysis of agricultural development and food security Piero Conforti ESA
ESA users • • State of Food Insecurity in the World Agriculture Towards 20 XX State of Food and Agriculture many others, for specific analyses
high expectations • hardly any comparable independent data source • detailed balanced items • large coverage (countries, products) • time consistency • agriculture and food security • user-friendly access (new website)
observable data issues • inconsistencies (e. g. negative consumption) • implausible feed i-o ratios • implausible year-to-year changes (in consumption, production, stocks) • large divergences from other data sources
observable data issues
observable data issues
observable data issues
observable data issues
observable data issues
observable data issues India’s poultry production in 2007 • FBS: 664 th tons • Prod. Stat livestock: 2313 th tons • OECD-FAO projections: 2315 th tons Egypt undernourishment figures: • consistency with the incidence of poverty
observable data issues
observable data issues
observable data issues could these be addressed with more: • consistency/plausibility checks • cross-checks with existing survey data • cross-checks with other data sources • an informal in-house consultation mechanism to decide on conflicting information
non-observable data issues • outdated or homogeneous conversion factors/extraction rates (processed products, calories, waste) • waste (farmgate-retail; hh level details) • data resulting from estimations and ad hoc computations
non-observable data issues could these be addressed with more: • periodic updates of coefficients/conversion factors/extraction rates, through ad hoc studies; or regular checks with other technical Divisions • standardized estimation/interpolation procedures and criteria • cross-checks with existing survey data • cross-checks with other data sources
other issues • • some totals and aggregated items missing number of products: please do not reduce! timeliness: back to the old two-year cycle? focal points: could they manage a two-way information flow? • internal pre-releases to check data?
to conclude • FBS/SUA are a unique and valuable resource • it seems possible to address the issues highlighted Ideas to consider: • more cross-checks • more exchanges with the rest of the house
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