Use of Seasonal Forecasts for Dams Management in

Use of Seasonal Forecasts for Dams Management in Spain José Voces Aboy, AEMET - jvocesa@aemet. es Eroteida Sánchez García, AEMET - esanchezg@aemet. es Ernesto Rodríguez Camino, AEMET - erodriguezc@aemet. es Beatriz Navascués Fernández-Victorio, AEMET - bnavascuesf@aemet. es

Seasonal Climate predictions in support of Water Reservoirs management in Spain More Info at Poster Session 17: 30 Hall A

Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System Seasonal Forecasting Dynamical Modeling Statistical Modeling

Statistical Method Source of Predictability Correlation k-NN Physical Explanation SAI NAO Forecasting Statistical Model

SAI – AO(DJF) correlation. Cohen & Jones (2011)

SAI – Precipitation (DJF) correlation. Brands et al. (2012)

Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System 3 -NN SAI Correlation NAO Sample 500 NAO samples 3 -NN 1500 ensemble members

Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System Año Vol Entrada Frec Prob 1977 166. 1 3 0. 8 1978 291. 6 1979 55. 3 1980 1981 Ensemble Members 1982 (Events) 1983 Forecast 4 1 25 6. 9 19. 1 42 11. 7 128. 1 24 6. 7 55. 2 48 13. 4 Tercile probabilities 19. 2 1984 Event 69 probabilities 124. 7 7 1985 64. 2 26 7. 2 1986 21. 4 26 7. 2 1987 91. 9 25 6. 9 1988 9. 4 60 16. 7 55. 4 1. 9

Assessment Selected reservoirs SIMRISK (management software) Hindcast Assessment • Criteria • Results • Conclusions

Assessment

Assessment