USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis

USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Office of Global Analysis, IPAD USDA’s Operational Global Agricultural Monitoring & Crop Forecasting Unit What do we do? ● Use Earth Observations, in conjunction with other sources, to create market intelligence for the assessment of global agricultural production and crop conditions ● Global food crop monitoring and commodity production forecasting for 17 commodities for over 150 countries ● Monthly update of World Agricultural Production, one of the U. S. government’s Principal Federal Economic Indicators https: //www. fas. usda. gov/data/world-agricultural-production ● 37 -year program history - archived global data from 1979 Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division 1

2 USDA’s Economic Information System National Agricultural Statistics Service Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin Domestic Production and Stocks Estimates FAS Commodity Circulars Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division Foreign Agricultural Service Economic Research Service World Agricultural Outlook Board Long-term Baseline Projections (Office of the Chief Economist) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Farm Service Agency ERS Situation and Outlook Reports https: //www. usda. gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

3 Foreign Commodity. Balance. Sheets Foreign Country Commodity Prices SUPPLY = DEMAND Beginning + Production Stocks Area Yield Private (On-farm) (Pipeline) Government + Imports = Exports Domestic Use + + Commercial Feed Concessional Residual Food, Seed, Industrial World Agricultural Outlook Board Chaired Meetings: Cotton, Oilseeds, Rice, Wheat, Coarse Grains Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division Participating agencies (all from USDA): WAOB, Economic Research Service, Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, Foreign Agricultural Service Ending Stocks

NASA Satellites used by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 4

NASA Satellites used by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Operational agricultural monitoring needs to have a “past, ” keep an eye on the “future” and make sure there are “redundant” systems. Application NASA EO Augmented Legacy Precipitation GPM US Air Force, WMO, NOAA, CHIRPS TRMM Landsat-8 Sentinel-2 A&B, Resource. Sat-2, Deimos/DMC Landsat 4/5/7, SPOT 4/5/6, Resource. Sat-1 SMAP SMOS n/a MODIS Terra/Aqua Proba-V SPOTVegetation, AVHRR Crop area Soil Moisture Crop health Water level status Jason-3 Future Landsat-9, small sats. Suomi NPP/ VIIRS, Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel (HLS) Topex/Poseidon, Sentinel-3 A&B OSTM, Jason 1&2 Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division 5

IRAQ Reports of Euphrates River Low Flow United States Department of Agriculture NASA/GSFC-GIMMS USDA-FAS/IPAD GMYD 09 Q 1 NDVI_panom_S 2003 -2015 2105 -241 (8/29 to 9/05) https: //glam 1. gsfc. nasa. gov/ Foreign Agricultural Service TURKEY SYRIA Lake Tharthar IRAQ JORDAN SAUDI ARABIA ISIS area 6 Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division

IRAQ Satellite Image of 2015 Rice Crop Compared to 2014 Rice Crop United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service 02 SEP 2015 tes hra Eup er er Riv USGS Earth Explorer Landsat-8 Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division 30 AUG 2014 Najaf vegetation water bare soil / fallow 7

IRAQ 2015 Rice Area Image Classification down ~ 50% from last year 8 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division 02 SEP 2015 Najaf vegetation water bare soil / fallow Landsat-8 satellite imagery bands 6, 5, 2 30 m resolution USGS Earth Explorer rice crop classification 48, 000 ha

IRAQ Rice Production and Harvested Area (USDA PSD online) United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division Production, 1, 000 tons Area, 1, 000 ha 300 200 180 250 160 140 200 107 110 100 100 88 84 48 65 55 80 60 48 40 28 50 Source: USDA Production Supply and Distribution, https: //apps. fas. usda. gov/psdonline/app/index. html#/app/home 2016/2017 2015/2016 2014/2015 2013/2014 2012/2013 Marketing Year 2011/2012 2010/2011 2008/2009 2007/2008 2006/2007 2005/2006 2004/2005 2003/2004 2002/2003 2001/2002 20 2000/2001 0 100 80 55 100 120 96 96 2009/2010 150 9 0

Turkey, Iraq and Iran United States Department of Agriculture G-REALM: Water Level Status Foreign Agricultural Service 10 Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) Examples of G-REALM products constructed from four NASA and CNES satellite radar altimeter mission data sets (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM, and Jason-3). Water variations (in meters) are archival, dating back to 1992, and near real time, with weekly updates. Imagery (courtesy of Google Earth) depicts the current status of the lake. All three lakes, Lake Beysehir (Turkey), Tharthar (Iraq), and Urmia (Iran) are in regions of high agricultural significance with emphasis on wheat harvests. Water levels reveal short-term agricultural drought conditions and recharges (Beysehir and Tharthar), as well as a sustained longer-term hydrological drought (Urmia). The G-REALM program is supported by the US Dept. of Agriculture and the NASA Applied Sciences Program. For more information please visit http: //www. pecad. fas. usda. gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/

China United States Department of Agriculture Soil Moisture corrected with SMOS Foreign Agricultural Service 11 Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division Decreased subsurface soil moisture in August 2016 compared to August 2015 led to increased stress and lower corn yields for Heilongjiang province, China. Other areas in China, however, had better conditions.

System Overview: Soil Moisture corrected with SMOS United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service 12 Office of Global Analysis, IPA Division daily Ø Satellite Soil Moisture product: Ø ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Ø NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Ø Palmer Model: Ø Physically based hydrologic model, Ø Inputs: Precipitation, Max and Min Temperature Ø Outputs: Surface and Subsurface soil moisture Ø Data Assimilation: Ø Ensemble Kalman Filter Ø 30 ensemble Ø Products: Ø Surface and sub-surface soil moisture Ø Soil moisture anomalies 3 -day composite 557 th Weather Wing Palmer Model SMOS Land cover AFWA Rescaling Measurement error Data Assimilation and C. A. Reynolds https: //www. pecad. fas. usda. gov/cropexplorer/ Soil moisture is precipitation’s “memory” https: //svs. gsfc. nasa. gov//cgi 11/26/2020 bin/details. cgi? aid=4443 Analysis Loop J. D. Bolten, I. E. Mladenova, W. Crow, N. Sazib SM Analysis Palmer Model 12

International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) USDA’s Operational Global Agricultural Monitoring & Crop Forecasting Unit ● Robert Tetrault, Deputy Director IPA Division, Office of Global Analysis, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA ● Robert. tetrault@fas. usda. gov ● World Agricultural Production https: //www. fas. usda. gov/data/world-agricultural-production Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division 13