US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook
- Slides: 20
US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook Presented at the Sourcing USA Summit II November 14 -17, 2002 Scottsdale, AZ Prepared by Economic Services National Cotton Council
Cotton Prices
World Cotton Supplies USDA: 136 mil bales for ‘ 02 crop, down from 141 last year
World Cotton Supplies 47 mil bales of old-crop cotton
World Beginning Stocks By Location 47. 8 mil bales 47. 5 mil bales
World Cotton Supplies USDA puts production at 88 mil bales
Change in Cotton Production Down 10 mil bales in 2002 relative to 2001
2002 US Cotton Production (Mil Bales) 5. 4 mil bales, up 0. 9 from ‘ 01 2. 7 mil bales, down 0. 5 from ‘ 01 5. 8 mil bales, down 1. 1 from ‘ 01 3. 9 mil bales, down 1. 7 from ‘ 01
World Cotton Mill Use USDA: 96. 2 mil bales
World Fiber Mill Use
Textile Polyester Production Source: PCI
Change in Cotton Mill Use From ‘ 01 to ‘ 02, China accounts for over half of the growth
US Cotton Mill Use USDA: 7. 7 mil bales
US Real GDP Growth
Real Exchange Rate Indices Source: Federal Reserve Board
US Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports by Country of Origin * Estimate based on imports as of July
US Cotton Mill Use & Supply
US Cotton Mill Use, Supply & Exports
Summary • In 2002, lower production in the US and abroad – Despite drop in production, total supplies still second largest in recent history • Demand growth hinges on general economy and competition from MMF • Current estimates suggest tighter world market for ‘ 03
Producers Ginners Cooperatives Crushers Warehouses Merchants Manufacturers