Urbanisation A global trend Global Urbanisation 1950 2050

Urbanisation A global trend

Global Urbanisation 1950 - 2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, http: //esa. un. org/wup 2009/unup/

Source: State of the World's Cities 2010/2011 - Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=2917

Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide

Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide • 50% of the World’s population live in cities • Chaotic urbanisation leads to the formation and growth of slums • “Bridging the Urban Divide” • 4 critical dimensions of cities: – Economic – Social – Political – Cultural

Report: Main Findings

Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Divide • From the report: 1. Urban Trends 2. The Urban Divide 3. Policy Implications

1. Urban Trends • Urbanization: A Positive Force for Transformation • The Wealth of Cities • Slums: Good News is Shadowed by Bad News

1. Urban Trends • Urbanization: A Positive Force for Transformation – 2 factors which will either bridge or exacerbate the urban divide: • The merging of settlements to create massive urban areas: – Mega-regions: e. g Hong Kong-Shenzen-Guangzhou: 120 million people – Urban corridors: Ibadan-Lagos-Accra: 600 kilometres through 4 countries in West Africa – City-regions: Metropolitan Sao Paolo: 8, 000 km 2, 16. 4 million people

1. Urban Trends • Urbanization: A Positive Force for Transformation – 2 factors which will either bridge or exacerbate the urban divide: • The merging of settlements to create massive urban areas • Movement of people to “satellite” cities and suburban neighbourhoods: – More affordable – Lower density housing – (possibly) Improved quality of life

1. Urban Trends • The Wealth of Cities – Prosperity of nations linked to prosperity of their cities – Clustering of cities can lead to further growth and development – Urbanisation can play a positive role in poverty reduction, however poor policy can negate this and lead to a local concentration of poor people

1. Urban Trends • Slums: Good News is Shadowed by Bad News – In developing countries urban growth has been strongly associated with poverty and slum growth – In the past decade there has been some success in moving people out of slum conditions: • Asia: lives of 174 million slum dwellers improved • Africa: lives of 24 million slum dwellers improved • Latin America and Caribbean: lives of 30 million slum dwellers improved – However this progress has not been enough to counter the demographic expansion in informal settlements in the developing world.

2. The Urban Divide • Urban division is usually characterised by coinciding disparities along economic, social, cultural and political barriers • From the report: – – Income Inequality in Cities: Contrasting Numbers Space Inequality: The Poverty Trap Inequality of Opportunities The Social Divide: • Hunger in cities • The health divide • Education: Opportunities and inequalities

2. The Urban Divide • Income Inequality in Cities: Contrasting Numbers: • Generally lower in developed countries, however there was an increase from mid-1980 s to 2005 • Declining in Latin America and Caribbean, although remains quite high • Trends in Africa mixed, although rates are generally high • In Asia the economic urban divide is widening

2. The Urban Divide • Space Inequality: The Poverty Trap – Poorer urban residents (often slum residents) are often cut off from the city: • Longer commuting times • Higher transportation costs • Lack of access to the urban advantage

2. The Urban Divide • Inequality of Opportunities – Lack of strong public institutional support in cities leads to the “urban advantage” only being accessible to certain people – Uneducated people and young slum dwellers, particularly women, are deprived of the opportunities to improve their situation

2. The Urban Divide • The repercussions of poverty reach beyond economic dimensions and affects physical and social dimensions • The Social Divide – Hunger in cities – The health divide – Education: Opportunities and inequalities

Expectations from the Report

3. Bridging The Urban Divide (Policy implications) • Inclusive cities based on the four critical dimensions: – Economic – Social – Political – Cultural

Asia Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, http: //esa. un. org/wup 2009/unup/

Urbanising Asia • Population still predominantly rural, however rates vary • Will not become predominantly urban before 2026 • Nearly half of the world’s urban population lives in Asian cities • In the next decade Asian cities will absorb two-thirds of the growth in the world’s urban population Source: The State of Asian Cities 2010/11 http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=3078

Urbanising Asia • 12 out of 21 mega-cities (>10 million) are in Asia, and 7 of the top 10 cities • Many urban agglomerations are evolving into mega urban regions and urban corridors • 60% of Asia’s urban population lives in urban areas with populations under one million

Economic Role of Asian Cities • Asian cities are highly productive – the 40% of the population in urban areas contribute 80% of the region’s GDP • Asian cities are economically resilient • Synergies between the formal and informal sectors account for the socio-economic dynamism of Asian cities • Asian cities are diversifying from their role as factories of the world to one of innovative service providers

Poverty and inequality in Asian cities • The Asia-Pacific region is leading the reduction of overall poverty in the world • Economic growth has not benefitted all urban dwellers in the region equally • The Asia-Pacific region is host to over half of the world’s slum population • Most Asian cities will achieve target for MDG for access to water • Although, many Asian cities will miss the MDG sanitation target

The Urban Environment and Climate Change • Asian cities have not paid sufficient attention to urban environment an climate change issues • Urban growth in Asia is not environmentally sustainable • Air pollution in Aisa causes as many as 519, 000 premature deaths every year • Water supplies and food security are becoming a critical challenge in many urban areas

The Urban Environment and Climate Change • Asian cities are among the most vulnerable to natural disasters • Climate change will have a significant impact on the future development of Asia’s coastal cities • Urban and rural areas will face challenges of water supplies, food supplies and ecorefugees • Among urban areas, the poor are most vulnerable to climate change

Africa Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, http: //esa. un. org/wup 2009/unup/

Urbanising Africa • In 2009 Africa’s total population for the first time exceeded one billion, of which 395 million (almost 40%) lived in urban areas • African cities on average exhibit the highest inequalities in the world • Two-thirds of all African urban growth will occur in intermediate cities (<500, 000 inhabitants) for the foreseeable future Sources: State of African Cities 2010 , Governance, Inequalities and Urban Land Markets http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=3034 and The State of the African Cities Report 2008 http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=2574

Urbanising Africa • African urbanisation is a poverty-driven process (and not the industrialisationinduced socio-economic transition it represented in the world’s other major regions)

African cities 200 180 90 59 cities 160 140 169+ 80 70 137+ 44 cities 120 60 110+ 43 cities 100 50 38 cities 89+ 80 28 cities 26% 60 26% 23% 40 16% 10% 13% 12% 20 2 cities 0 3 cities 18% 3 cities 3, 4 5, 3 6, 3 1950 1955 1960 6 cities 11+ 8 cities 15+ 18% 9 cities 15 cities 30+ 43+ 53+ 68+ 30% 32% 34% 35% 40 30 28% 24 cities 20 21 cities 10 19+ 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 Source: The State of the African Cities Report 2008, page 26 1985 1990 1995 2000 % of total African urban population 2005 2010 2015 Combined population Percentage of Total Urban Population Combined population (millions) and number of 1+ million cities African 1+ Million Cities, Combined Population, % of Total Urban Population

African cities • From 1960 s to 1980 s responses to slum proliferation consisted of urban slum clearances (persistent and repeated, often by force) • From 1980 s onwards it became clear urban slum proliferation was out of control • The reaction was to accept their existence but not to institute upgrading programs.

African cities • Many of the issues in Africa stem from clashes between the system of governance, land markets and land title introduced with colonialism and the traditional or customary systems of land ownership and registration • These systems have existed in adjacent areas, but cannot function in the same area

African cities • Issues occur when the colonial (formal) system (city) expands into areas of traditional customary (informal) systems (rural) • The formal system is often too expensive and time consuming, this results in people turning to the informal system, in cities this leads to slums • The informal system (illegal) provides no security of tenure and therefore no incentive for dwellers to invest

Conclusions • Strong demographic growth in a city is neither good nor bad on its own • Urbanisation has been associated with: – Improved human development – Rising incomes – Better living standards • However when public policies benefit only small political or economic elites urbanisation results in instability, as cities become unlivable for rich and poor alike

Conclusions • Challenge is to focus on cities as peoplecentred concentrations of opportunity, not just problems • Good governance is the key to inclusive cities (including mega regions, urban corridors and other agglomerations) in which the benefits of urbanisation are available to all • Good governance for the future often requires legislative and administrative changes to old municipal boundaries

Sources • Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, http: //esa. un. org/wup 2009/unup/ • UN-HABITAT: – State of the World's Cities 2010/2011 - Cities for All: Bridging the Urban Dividehttp: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=2917 – The State of Asian Cities 2010/11 http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=3078 – State of African Cities 2010 , Governance, Inequalities and Urban Land Markets http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=3034 – The State of the African Cities Report 2008 http: //www. unhabitat. org/pmss/list. Item. Details. aspx? publication. ID=2574 • Interview, Jos Maseland, UN-HABITAT Regional Office for Africa, Nairobi, Kenya

Suggested further reading • NE: http: //www. ne. se/lang/urbanisering? i_whole_article=true • The Guardian: http: //www. guardian. co. uk/society/2012/jan/21/rise-megacity-live • BBC: http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/shared/spl/hi/world/06/urbanisation/html/urbanisation. stm and http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/in_depth/world/2006/urbanisation/ • An Australian perspective: http: //www. globaleducation. edna. edu. au/globaled/go/pid/1820 • World Bank (video): http: //www. wburbanstrategy. org/urbanstrategy/ and (presentation ppt and video stream): http: //web. worldbank. org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTURBANDEVELOPMENT/0, , content. MDK: 23 074223~menu. PK: 337184~page. PK: 64020865~pi. PK: 51164185~the. Site. PK: 337178, 00. html • Academic articles: http: //scholar. google. com/scholar? q=urbanisation&hl=en&btn. G=S%C 3%B 6 k