Urban Transport in China Car Crazy Lee Schipper

Urban Transport in China – Car Crazy? Lee Schipper EMBARQ China Environment Forum, WW Center Nov 30, 2006 1

EMBARQ • A catalyst for socially, financially, and environmentally sound solutions to the problems of urban mobility 2

EMBARQ • Established as a unique center within World Resources Institute in 2002, EMBARQ is now the hub of a network of centers for sustainable transport in developing countries. • Shell Foundation and Caterpillar Foundation are EMBARQ’s Global Strategic Partners, supporting EMBARQ projects worldwide • Additional EMBARQ supporters include – – – – Hewlett Foundation Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs BP US AID Asian Development Bank Energy Foundation Blue Moon Fund US Environmental Protection Agency 3

Sustainable Transport: These are the Drivers, not CO 2 • Economic Sustainability – Affordable to users – Attractive as business – Each mode or fuel bears full social costs • Social Sustainability – – Promotes access for all, not just a few Builds healthy and solid communities Allows equal road space distribution for all transport modes Minimizes travel time • Environmental Sustainability – Minimizes accidents and damage to human health – Leaves no burdens for future generations – Reduces greenhouse gas emissions – Not Yet Governance is The Roof Over these Pillars Integrating Mobility, Security, and Energy 4

WORLD PRIMARY OIL USE, 1965 -2004 (Source: BP) 5

World Oil: The U. S. and China In Context (All figures in per capita terms) U. S. increment in oil use for cars and light trucks 2002 -2003 was half of China’s total in 2003 6

Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region 2003 24 Gt 2030 37 Gt Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005 Global emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries 7

The Bush Metric of Success–CO 2/GDP China Has Far Outpaced the US Source: IEA 8

CO 2 Emissions from Road Transport Source: IEA 9

Access: People in China Move 12 -14 Km/day, Urban Americans 40 -45 km/day 10

Motorization in China: Déjà vu All Over Again? Source: EMBARQ Is rapid urbanization in China and other countries putting cities and cars on a collision course? 11

Rapid Motorization in China http: //lnweb 18. worldbank. org/eap. nsf/Attachments/background+2/$File/China_Motorization. pdf • The Growth of the Automobile Industry – Pillar of national economy – or another battering ram? – Popularity – increase in demand foreign investment – Low cost and high cost models, imports • Historic Trends and Future Projections – Automobile production from 509, 000 in 1990 to 4. 4 million in 2004 – China’s “car” stock from well under million in 1992 to 12 million in 2003 – Increasing contributor to air pollution, congestion, traffic fatalities • New Reality – “The Car is Out of the Bag” – New “Car” Fuel Economy Standards ~ 30 MPG (US effectively 24 MPG) – Emission and fuel quality standards catching up to US, Europe 1970 s rural vehicle 2002 Buick Van 12

Cars and Urban Transport in China: Symbol for Much of the World? • Congestion: Cars and Other Traffic • • Air Pollution: Too Many Vehicles • • Buses and people stuck in traffic Building more roads makes problem worse Tough policies called for – by whom? Enough old smokers to ruin air New fuels, vehicles improving Emissions from cars could offset improvements Traffic Safety: People First • • • Walkers, cyclists main victims Too many kinds of traffic in same place, unequal road space distribution More cars and speed will kill more people 13

EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China • Illustrate and Quantify a World We Can’t See. . Yet – Reasonable estimates for “present values” – Growth based on nearby example -- Korea – Convergence with many other studies in the base case • Quantitative Assumption-Driven Outputs – Vehicles, vehicle distances, fuel consumption – Impacts of alternative fuels – Total CO 2 emissions • Qualitative Results – Flesh and bones on the base case – Illustration of impact of “fuel efficiency” on total fuel use – Illustration of how a “livable cities” scenario might play out 14

EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China • Base Case – China has Korean car/GDP ratio in 2020 – 120 -160 million cars, 12, 000 km/car – 8 -8. 5 L/100 km if no new measures – Closer to 2 mn bbl/day oil in 2020 • Oil Saving Scenario – 40% as much oil, some CNG – Japanese/Euro level of fuel prices – 110 -130 million cars, but less driving/car – Fuel economy standards, some hybrids and CNG • Integrated Transport - Livable cities with good transport – Much lower car ownership and use– avoiding the plague – Very small cars (incl. slow electrics, hybrids) to avoid space and congestion problems in cities – Serious BRT, Metro, car-use restraint, land-use planning – avoid Mexico 15

China’s New-Car Fuel Economy Standards: A Start Weight-class based • • Car of given weight cannot use more than a given fuel use/km by tests Will probably impact SUVs significantly Overall Impact Uncertain • • • 20 -30% impact in each class Will keep cars from becoming guzzlers Will not prevent larger market shares of heavy, fuel intensive cars Technology not the problem • • • Key is car size, power, utilization Manufacturers can choose techs. 16 Fuel taxes, externalities next?

Alternative Fuels or Fools? Tough Choices for China • Ethanol and other “Biofuels” – Modest experience, but high costs – Issue of land, water, pollution – what’s new here? – Scaling up may just be unreasonable • Fossil Alternatives – Lots of LPG and CNG, but these not real alternatives – Gas to liquids, but where’s the gas? – Coal to liquids – methanol or synthetic liquids? • A Third Way? Coal and Electrification? – Start with hybrids, battery electrics? – Coal to hydrogen/fuel cells with sequestration? – Electric drive now for most city vehicles? ? Key Element – Fuel and Externality Pricing 17

Better Urban Transport: No Choice! 18

The Sustainability Challenge: Cars and CO 2 Emissions in 2020 Sustainable Urban Mobility Saves Cities, Fuel, and Above all, Greenhouse Gas Emissions 19

GHG In China Not an Crucial Policy Driver: • Little Concrete Action on GHG from Transport – Wasted fuel, extra air pollution from bad traffic – Less than 15% of urban trips in cars, yet cities stuffed – Coal for oil could become China’s GHG nightmare • Some Motion on Fuel Quality and Fuel Economy – Increased stringency on fuel quality and emissions – China fuel economy standards, real concern about oil – Moves on fuel taxes likely next step -- revenue • Lip Service to the Real Threat – Urban Immobility – More vehicle use, congestion, accidents – Higher health and accident risks – Policy changes needed soon Numbers of cars, their Size, Use is Key 20

Transport Projects and CO 2 Counting: Difficult Bean Counting for China • Rush to Sell “CO 2 Avoided” in Developing Projects – Both fuels/vehicles and traffic changes (like BRT) – Most projects are small, changes within noise – Very difficult to measure or model changes • Various Mechanisms – in Order of Difficulty – Mayors make feel-good pledges, companies buy offsets – Actions like US Asia/Pacific Consortium – mostly hot air – Clean Development Mechanism: Tiny compared to the problem • The Challenge for China – Finding “Negacarbon” – Verification becomes a “less than otherwise” prospect – Overall growth swamps projects – Self interest – healthy cities, oil imports -- the real drivers 21

Conclusions: Will China Decarbonize? • Urban Transport Solutions is the Umbrella – Make room for 300 million more urbanites – land use planning – Scale up of bus rapid transit – Next steps – restraints on car use (congestion pricing? ) • Clean Air Means Fewer Kilometers – Fuel economy standards a valuable first step – Real urban transport – not just token BRT -- reform next – Next steps – car restraints, protection for NMT • Fuel Economy and Alternative Fuels – Fuel economy is necessary but not sufficient – Alternative fuels prospects grim – competition for land – Main threat/hope – coal/decarbonized hydrogen? Avoiding the Multiple Problems of Too Many Cars 22 Is Much Easier than Mitigating them when its too late!

Lee Schipper schipper@wri. org www. embarq. wri. org 23