Upplopp och andra hot ur kollektivt beteende skall

Upplopp och andra hot ur kollektivt beteende skall förutses! Hur? 1

FOI-projekt 2003 … 2006 Beslutsstöd vid internationella operationer Tidig förvarning om upplopp – exempel på fallbaserat lärande i underrättelseprocessen Michael Malm, Göran Neider, FOI Peter Funk, Mälardalens Högskola referensgrupp: CS 2, COS ur KS 09 2

Resultat – tidig förvarning kunskap - ökas via erfarenheter insamla och återanvänd erfarenheter lokalt bearbeta erfarenheter lokalt + centralt utbildning FOI bidrar arbetsmetodik, verktyg informationsstruktur indikatorer – uppbyggnadsstöd - långsiktigt 3

Agenda Syfte Intuitivt beslutsfattande Indikatorer och kollektivt beteende Fallbaserat lärande Nytta och resultat Framtid - diskussion 4

Syfte och målgrupp Utveckla förmågan att § tidigt förutsäga händelser och händelseutveckling syfte: agera proaktivt § avgränsning § kollektivt beteende (ex upplopp) § MOOTW § internationella operationer § Und-funktionen i samverkan - lokalt, centralt 5

Deluppgifter Metodik och Verktyg bearbetningsmetodik Kommunikation av erfarenheter organisatoriskt minne dialog mellan Und-nivåer Indikatorstruktur (dynamisk) på fält, före insats, taktiska kommandon, Und. Säk. C 6

Projekthistoria - val 2003 kollektivt beteende, beslutsmodeller 2004 -02 fallbaserat lärande 2004 -04 upploppet i Caglavica => nytt fall 2005 -08 Gul server 2005 -10 CTA-kurs + intervju CS 2 + COS 7

Exempel Paris 2005 - faser förspel trigger Paris 2005 -11 utanförskap, gäng barn flyr, bränns ihjäl upplopp lokalt Clichy-sous-Bois motreaktion ’. . slödder. . ’ eskalering veckor avklingar utmattning motiv gäng 8

Exempel Paris’ 05 – KS 09 - faser förspel Paris 2005 -11 Kosovo 2004 -03 utanförskap, besvikelse, gäng etniciteter trigger barn flyr, bränns ihjäl drunknar upplopp lokalt Clichy-sous-Bois Mitrovica motreaktion ’. . slödder. . ’ serbblockad eskalering veckor dagar avklingar utmattning ’utrensning’ motiv gäng etniciteter Ex värdebegrepp: känslor, stämningar, påverkan – representation, likhet 9

Experience the situation in a changing context No Diagnos Moore data Is Situation Typical? Yes Inference Clarify Anomali Recognition Primed Decision Model Expectancies Cues Goals Action 1…. n Evaluate action (n) No Modify Yes, but Will it work? Yes Implement course of action Source: ”Sources of Power” by Gary Klein 10

Sense of Coherence (SOC) 11

Emergent Violent Conflicts Structural factors: Background conditions that form the pre-condition of crises situations. Accelerators: Feedback events that rapidly increase the level of significance of the most volatile of the general conditions. Triggers: Sudden events that act as catalysts igniting a crises or conflict. Source: CIFP 12

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SIPRI Structural Indicators 1. Justice and human rights 5. Military and security 1: 1. Justice and the rule of law 1: 2. Human rights 1: 3. Civil society and media 1: 4. Intervening variables 5: 1. Arms, small arms 5: 2. Military expenditure 5: 3. Military forces and control 5: 4. Non-state controlled armed forces 2. Socio-cultural factors 6. Environment and resource management 2: 1. Ethnic tension and division 2: 2. Political exploitation of ethnic, cultural and identity differences 2: 3. Structural and historical factors 6: 1. Environmental disaster, scarcity of natural resources 6. 2. Resource management 6: 3. Problematic resources (eg oil, diamonds, and gold) 6: 4. Competition over (scarce) resources (eg water) 3. Internal security setting 3: 1. Demographic/population pressure 3: 2. Non-economic social development and regional inequalities 3: 3. Criminalisation 3: 4. Violence, cohesion, and internally displaced people/refugees 3: 5. History of armed conflict and structural instability 3: 6. Lack of tools and institutions of conflict prevention 3: 7. Regime type and media 7. Governance and political stability 4. Geopolitical setting 8: 1. Social development and equality 8: 2. Economic performance and wealth 8: 3. Economic stability and performance 4: 1. Regional and international setting 4: 2. International linkage 4: 3. External (territorial) disputes 4: 4. External support and intervention 7: 1. State/regime legitimacy 7: 2. Governance 7: 3. Political stability, opposition- and elite groups 7: 4. Regime type 7: 5. Corruption 8. Socio-economic factors 9. Regional and country specific variables 15

Examples of Structural Indicators Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Censorship Corruption, (institutional, commercial, political) Increased tension between regime supporters and opposition groups Political violence (assassinations, coups, hostagetaking etc. ) Dissatisfaction with the management of state affairs Institutionalized persecution, or perception of (economic, political etc. ) General despair (linked to justice, economic welfare, personal/family security) Abuses of power Increased opposition activity Increase in size and cohesion of opposition groups Repression of political opposition Radicalization of opposition (militarization, rise in ethno-nationalism, increasingly irredentist agenda, more violent or conflict-generating activities undertaken etc. ) Protest action (strikes, picketing etc. ) Militarization (of society or political groups) Increase in terrorism Human rights abuses Increase in organized crime High or increasing crime rate Authorities sanction arming of civilians in border areas Arms trafficking Militarization (of society or political groups) Proliferation of arms High no. of suicides Exploitation of divisions/tensions (political / media propaganda) Perception that terrorist activities are related to / supported by elements in neighboring states Perception that Federal government encourages and manipulates internal conflicts Influx of refugees / IDPs (conflict over the return of displaced people or influx of refugees) Emigration, particularly of minorities or elites Political instability and violence (coups, assassinations etc. ) Uncertain period of political transition (upcoming elections, newly autonomous region establishing self-government etc. ) 16

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The dewpoint is this critical temperature at which condensation occurs 18

Examples of Event Indicators Arrest February 16 of four former KLA commanders An attempted attack on Minister Ethem Ceku on February 21. Nights of the fires celebration An explosives attack on the residence of President Ibrahim Rugova on March 12 Closed schools Large amounts of explosives planted in the immediate vicinity of UNMIK headquarters At about 8 p. m. March 15, unknown attackers fired from a car at an eighteenyear-old Serb. Blocking of the main highway (Pristina. Skopje) Three young Albanian children were said to have been chased into the Ibar river March 16. On March 16 war associations organized widespread demonstrations The arrival of spring and first good weather Newspaper headlines: “UNMIK watch out there is gunpowder for you to” Cut of water Aggressive graffiti Electricity cut off Ignored calls from local leaders to go home Forbidden symbols is shown openly Increased number of telephone calls Beatings Involvement of outsiders Closed shops/restaurants Children throwing stones Chanting Snipers Dark glasses and faces covered with scarves 19

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Examples of imminent riot indicators Orientation. Crowd dynamics change from people milling around and talking among themselves in isolated groups to a more collective focus concentrated on a single objective Massing. The crowd begins to mass or tighten into a large contiguous body from a loose formation to a static congregation located in a more concentrated area Chanting. People may begin chanting slogans or yelling ethnically charged rhetoric or obscenities. Chanting can indicate an increase in crowd intensity. Signaling occurs when members of the crowd position themselves to communicate and synchronize crowd actions tied to a plan with specific objectives. Signaling may indicate the intent to escalate the message through the use of violent or unlawful acts. Blocking. The crowd may attempt to block public thoroughfares. This escalates the level of attention given to the crowd's message or prevents freedom of movement to opposing persons or groups Arming. Any signs that the crowd is arming itself with objects (for example, bottles, rocks, and sticks) is a clear indication of impending danger. Outside Influence. The presence of people from outside the community may indicate more sophisticated planning and resources than would otherwise be expected from local community members. Agitators and instigators are common elements associated with civil disturbances. They often . provide a catalyst to incite the crowd toward violence Absence of children. Recent civil disturbances have shown that even when children were initially present at a rally, they were absent before the civil disturbance erupted with violence. While the presence of children is not a guarantee of a peaceful assembly, the removal of children from a rally may provide early warning for a pending escalation of hostilities or a full-blown riot 21

Experience the situation in a changing context No Diagnos Moore data Is Situation Typical? Yes Inference Clarify Anomali Recognition Primed Decision Model Expectancies Cues Goals Action 1…. n Evaluate action (n) No Modify Yes, but Will it work? Yes Implement course of action Source: ”Sources of Power” by Gary Klein 22

Fallbaserat lärande (CBR) Case-Base Reasoning analogi-baserat identifiera, återanvända lösningar NÄR? komplext bristande individuella fall => beslut 23

CBR processen (Aamodts 4 R) problem Retrieve identifiera fallet - likhet Omvärldskunskap Reuse välj det bästa - mått Revise revidera föreslagen lösning, värdera Retain inlärning (anpassa) Data bas med fall Lagra det nya fallet 24

CBR –jämför händelser – likhetsberäkning (exempel) 25

Observation – händelse - fall Observationer – ’fakta 7 S, indikatorer Händelse – bedömning sammanhangspåverkan (hierarki), typer: behållare, jämförelseobjekt, reella, hypotetiska, härledda Fall – en utvald sekvens av händelser som berör ett utfall 26

KS 09 exempel på observationer dec Attentat mot domsstol Hög arbetslöshet jan pamfletter feb Holkari löften hätskare stämning - ökar upploppshantering – KFOR beslut – varför? ! Serbnärvaro ökar KFOR ersätts studentdemonstrationer med polis attentat mot president mars attentat blockad Olycka + propaganda = trigger Upplopp i Mitrovica demonstration tid Upplopp 27

Observationer – händelse - fall Fall – utvald sekvens av händelser, anpassas H Händelser - bedömningar H H H O O Observationer – 7 S + indikatorer tid 28

Fallets behandlingscykel Skapa fall Utspelas händelse S 2 lagrar STEMP händelse lokalt Bearbeta lokalt, centralt STEMP+ händelse Händelse+ händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse tid händelse stämning beslut utfall händelse tid Återanvänd av nästa S 2 Utspelas händelse händelse Frågor stämning om beslut likhet utfall händelse CBR-databas + system 29

Tidig förvarning ur erfarenheter b a x Aktuell d c y z e f g h i. M u sök likhet i biblioteksfall nu fall ger 1. följd av händelser fall 2. händelser ny eller igenkänd 3. viktig händelser varning, sök fall 4. händelser indatastöd 5. Indikator händelser indikatoruppbyggnad studera följder 30

Fallens bearbetning indikatorer representation, likhetsmått påverkan, vikt (sammanhang, mått) bearbetning auktorisering - standardfall normalfall förhindrade hot (lyckad åtgärd) skapade fall (ideal) analys härledda, hypotetiska händelser 31

Nytta kommunikation av erfarenheter insats organisatoriskt minne Lesson learned utbildning utveckling (simuleringsunderlag) 32

Framtid Planer Behov bekräftelse samarbete personer: ref-grp, utveckling, indikatorer NBG 2008, 2011 33

ATK presentation 2005 -11 -25 av FOI-projekt Beslutsstöd vid internationella operationer Tidig förvarning om upplopp – exempel på fallbaserat lärande i underrättelseprocessen Göran Neider, FOI neider @foi. se Michael Malm, FOI 34

Extra bilder FN aktörer + NATO stabsstruktur IDEA event structure Lofland collective behaviour Turner, Kilian collective behaviour 35

FN aktörer & NATO stabsstruktur Nivå Strategisk allmän militär Aktörer internationellt FN NATO (EU? ) i Sverige regering ÖB MUST Operativ Joint …J 2, J 3…. OPIL. J 2, J 3. . vapengrensöverskridande Taktisk Air Marine Ground division brigad …G 2, G 3. . NIC Stridsteknisk bataljon (Staff). . S 2, S 3… kompanier Polis: . . G 2. . ATK UNMIK, lokal förbanden Hjälporganisationer (NGO) Media 36

IDEA Event Indicator Classification 01: Yield 02: Comment 03: Consult 04: Endorse 05: Promise 06: Grant 07: Reward 08: Agree 09: Request 10: Propose 11: Reject 12: Accuse 13: Complain 15: Demand 16: Warn 17: Threaten 18: Demonstrate 19: Sanction 21: Seize 22: Force Use 23: Economic activity 29: Other human action 52: Accident 37

Years, Mounths, weeks Trends TEMPORAL FRAME Waves Campaigns Days, Hours, minutes Events Gatherings Hours, Minutes, seconds Minutes, Seconds, Split seconds Collective Behavior Sequence Individual Behavior Sequence MICRO SPATIAL FRAME MACRO Källa: Lofland 38

PROBLEMATIC EVENTS RUMOR PROCESS CONDITIONS FACILITATING COMMUNICATION AND MOBILIZATION General characteristics of all crowds CONVERGENCE Of persons with diverse motives THE MILLING PROCESS KEYNOTING via differential expressions of diverse motives EMERGENT NORM As definition of situation COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR 39