Updated Oil Gas Emissions Projections for 2023 and

Updated Oil & Gas Emissions Projections for 2023 and 2028 1

Background Information • 110 SIPs for the 2015 ozone NAAQS are due from states in October 2018 • Regional Haze SIPs are due from states in 2018 or 2021 • EPA is planning to conduct near-term air quality modeling to provide information which the states can use to inform the development of these SIPs • Ozone contribution modeling for a 2023 projection year, the attainment date for moderate ozone nonattainment areas • PM source sector contribution modeling for a 2028 projection year, the regional haze glide path target date • Results of these model applications are expected to be provided by EPA to the states later this year 2

Context • At a June 20/21 meeting between MJOs and EPA, the MJOs requested that EPA update the projection factors for oil and gas emissions for this nearterm modeling in view of the recent changes in the energy sector which have affected the expected growth in oil and gas production and projected emissions in the US • We investigated the use of applying MARAMA projection method to other Supply Regions in Lower 48 states • AEO tables used were identified and methodology explained • Use of this method seems feasible • Method computes State-SCC projection factors for each Supply Region (slide 5) • Which AEO case to use? • 2014, 2015 and 2016 have pretty significant differences • Very little difference between 2016 reference case and 2016 reference case without CPP • RECOMMENDATION: Use AEO 2016 reference case data to compute growth factors by supply regions 3

Plans / Timing for Method Review • To meet the target date for providing air quality modeling information to states, EPA must begin modeling for 2023 and 2028 later this summer. • We request that the Oil & Gas Committee to review the information in this package and provide by August 12, 2016 any concerns regarding the use of the MARAMA approach with the AEO 2016 reference case to project oil and gas production data for the near-term modeling • Documentation on MARAMA approach is here: http: //www. marama. org/technicalcenter/emissions-inventory/2011 -2017 -beta-regional-emissions-inventory • Alternative data (derived using other than the above approach) should be provided to Vukovich. Jeffrey@epa. gov by August 18, 2016 in the form of a spreadsheet of state or county x SCC projection factors plus a brief description of how they were computed 4

2015 and 2016 are similar to 2014 but Rocky Mt and Dakotas are aggregated and Texas is split differently 5

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Summary: Oil and Gas Projections for year 2023 & 2028 • Factors will be for each Supply Region • Use of the AEO 2016 reference case is recommended • 2016 reference case and 2016 reference case without CPP are coincident in the time series for oil all Supply Regions, and nearly so for gas • EPA will be reviewing available/appropriate control factors to apply for 2023 & 2028 that would be applied on top of the growth factors • Send general comments on the approach ASAP (by August 12) to Vukovich. Jeffrey@epa. gov • Send any alternative state x SCC or county x SCC factors to Vukovich. Jeffrey@epa. gov by August 18, 2016 22