Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Yucheng

Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Meeting of the working group on Space-based Lidar winds, Miami, Florida Feb 6 -9 Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 1

Acknowledgments • • • NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews CARCAH (John Pavone) Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS Jack Woollen - EMC Russ Treadon - EMC Mark Iredell - EMC Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland Wayman Baker, JCSDA + others who have contributed! Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 2

Collaborators • • Sharanya Majumdar Univ. of Miami/CIMAS Craig Bishop Naval Research Lab Christopher Velden Univ. of Wisc. /CIMSS Milija Zupanski Colo. State Univ. /CIRA Thomas Hamill NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Lab Istvan Szunyogh Univ. of Maryland Robert Atlas NASA/GSFC David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, SMA Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 3

Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR 2006) Program • Took place 27 Jan – 9 March 2006 • Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130 s). • Observations are adaptive – – collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest – in areas that might influence forecast the most. • Operational since January 2001 • 26 flights, around 342 dropsondes this winter which is reduced from 500 drops last year Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 4

Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Objective: Improve Forecasts of Significant Winter Weather Events Through Targeted Observations in Data Sparse Northeast Pacific Ocean Approach: 1) Collected Only Prior to Significant Winter Weather Events of Interest 2) Collected in Areas that Influence the Forecast the Most Results: About 70% of Targeted Numerical Weather Predictions Improve Significantly Due to Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program (Operational since January 2001) Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 5

ETKF-based targeting strategy The ETKF spotted the target area Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 6

Overall results for Temperature Of the cases: 22 improved 1 neutral 7 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions forecasts with and without WSR data Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 7

Overall results for Vector Wind Of all cases: 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions forecasts with and without WSR data Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 8

Overall results for Specific humidity Of all cases: 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions forecasts with and without WSR data Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 9

Forecast Verification for Wind RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 10

Individual Case Comparison VR W E E AK W AK AK E E C W W W AK W H W W W C E E OBSDATE 20060127 20060129 20060201 20060203 20060204 20060206 20060209 20060210 20060212 20060214 20060221 20060223 20060225 20060226 20060227 20060301 20060303 20060304 20060305 20060307 20060309 P 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 T 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 V 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 OVERALL 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 REGION FHOUR 124 W , 45 N 48 75 W , 40 N 72 83 W , 36 N 72 124 W , 42 N 36 84 W , 35 N 48 68 W , 45 N 48 140 W , 60 N 24 122 W , 45 N 60 131 W , 55 N 60 140 W , 60 N 12 88 W , 42 N 84 87 W , 42 N 48 95 W , 33 N 48 120 W , 47 N 24 122 W , 40 N 72 122 W , 40 N 36 150 W , 60 N 48 118 W , 34 N 36 158 W , 22 N 84 124 W , 42 N 24 123 W , 45 N 84 123 W , 40 N 48 121 W , 40 N 36 122 W , 46 N 48 90 W , 37 N 60 85 W , 45 N 84 80 W , 50 N 84 1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect 19 OVERALL POSITIVE 0 OVERALL NEUTRAL 8 OVERALL NEGATIVE Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 70% improved 30 % degraded 11

Impact of WSR targeted dropsondes (2006) Binned Impact 1 Jan – 28 Feb 2006 00 UTC Analysis Beneficial (-0. 01 to -0. 1 J kg-1) NOAA-WSRP 191 Profiles Non-beneficial (0. 01 to 0. 1 J kg-1) Small impact (-0. 01 to 0. 01 J kg-1) Average dropsonde obs impact is beneficial and ~2 -3 x greater than average radiosonde impact (From Dr. Rolf Langland, Naval Research Lab. ) Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 12

Composite summary maps 139. 6 W 59. 8 N 36 hrs (7 cases) 122 W 37. 5 N 49. 5 hrs (8 cases) Verificati on Region 92 W 38. 6 N 60 hrs (5 cases) Verification Region 80 W 38. 6 N 63. 5 hrs (8 cases) Shaded is the ETKF derived error reduction in Verification region and contours are sea level pressure Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 13

ETKF predicted signal propagation Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 14

Forecast hours vs. Distance 36 hrs (Alaska) 49. 5 hrs (West Coast) 60 hrs (Central U. S) 63. 5 hrs (East Coast) 1422 km 2034 km 4064 km 5143 km The above table listed forecast hours and the distance between the centers of sensitivity and verification regions Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 15

WSR overall statistics (2004 -2006) Variable # cases improved # cases neutral #cases degraded Surface pressure 21+20+13=54 0+1+0=1 14+9+14=37 Temperature 24+22+17=63 1+1+0=2 10+7+10=27 Vector Wind 23+19+21=63 1+0+0=1 11+11+6=28 Humidity 22+19+13=54 0+0+0=0 13+11+14=38 25+22+19 = 66 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 0+1+0 = 1 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES. 10+7+8 = 25 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 71. 7% improved 27. 1% degraded Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 16

Future Work • Improve ensemble products to give better guidance to HPC and SDMs – using “energy norms” in addition to the conventional products – Better ensemble products • Improve targeting method based on ETKF method with increasing resolution and ensemble membership – Explore parallel structure of the codes • Improve verification techniques • High resolution (T 382 L 64? ) • WSR 2007 increased more ensemble members from ECMWF, NCEP • Moisture data will be assimilated in the verification • Tropical flareups and Arctic signals – T-PARC and IPY Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 17

WSR 2007 – More ensemble members -Cleaner signals Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 18

Ensemble based guidance Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 19

Tropical Flare-ups by IR Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 20

Tropical Flare-ups captured by ETKF Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 21

T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Winter storm reconnaissance and driftsonde NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 22

Winter component of T-PARC • • • December 08 to February 09 Improving adaptive targeting methods for 3 -5 days Ø ET Ø SV (possible collaboration with NRL) Adaptive use of DWL, Driftsondes, Radiosondes, special IPY observations as well as satellite data can enhance high impact weather events in Arctic and CONUS, Enhanced Siberian Observation network, MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 23

Goal • Contribute to the design and utilization of optimal global observing network, including adaptive components • Contribute to Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) • Improved forecasts translate into enhanced guidance for users and real life applications • Develop new products (sea ice, freezing spray, storm surge) • Probabilistic approach to model uncertainties, downscaling/post-processing better representation in model of high impact weather events Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 24

Data issues (AMMA example) An example showing Track-Check Problems with African AMDAR Data during AMMA period Courtesy of Dr. Bradley Ballish Daily take-in of the AMMA data for Temperature and wind at one station Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 25

Background information - ETKF Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 26

Continued Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth 27