Update on the labour market Andrew Damant Labour

Update on the labour market Andrew Damant - Labour Market Economist

Summary of content • Latest labour market estimates for the UK • Rise in part-time employment - Record number of people in part-time employment • Focus on public sector employment - Job losses in the public sector - Public sector employment by region • Graduates in the labour market - Increase in the number of graduates - Employment rates for graduates and non-graduates - Unemployment rates for graduates - Earnings by degree subject studied

Headlines Labour market estimates January to March 2012 (compared to October to December 2011) Level Unemployment 2. 63 m Rate (%) 45 k 8. 2 0. 2 (16+) Employment 29. 23 m 105 k 70. 5 0. 2 9. 25 m 35 k 23. 0 0. 1 13. 7 k 4. 9 (Level 16+) ( Rate 16 to 64) Inactivity (16 -64) Claimant Count 1. 59 m (18+) (Claimant count is for April 2012) no change

Focus on employment Change on quarter Rise in employment entirely driven by increase in parttime employment Thousands 120 118, 000 105, 000 90 60 30 0 - 13, 000 -30 Total Full-time Part-time

Focus on part-time employment Thousands Part-time employment Highest number of part-time workers since comparable records began in 1992 9, 000 7. 99 million 8, 000 7, 000 6, 000 5, 000 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Focus on part-time employment Per cent Part-time employment Highest number of part-time workers since comparable records began in 1992 Part-time would like full-time Highest percentage since comparable records began in 1992 18. 0 per cent 20 16 12 8 4 0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Focus on public sector employment Change on year (thousands) 2010 to 2011 300 226, 000 200 100 0 -100 - 44, 000 -200 - 270, 000 -300 Total employment Public sector Private sector

Focus on government sectors Percentage change on year (2010 to 2011) Total public corporations 10 8% 5 47% Central government 0 45% Local government -1. 2% -5 -4. 3% -7. 1% -6. 1% -10 Total public sector Central government Local Total public government corporations

Public sector employment by region Wales 25. 8 per cent of total employment Northern Ireland Wales North East Scotland Yorkshire & The Humber South West 19. 8 per cent of total employment North West Midlands South West East Midlands London South East of England 0 10 20 Per cent 30

Public sector employment by region South West 36, 000 fall in public sector employment in the last year South West South East of England North West London Wales Down 8, 000 in the last year West Midlands Scotland East Midlands North East Yorkshire & The Humber Wales Northern Ireland -60 -30 0 30 60 Change on year (Thousands) 2010 to 2011

Number of graduates Thousands Recent graduates Those who have graduated within 6 years of their survey interview, aged 21 to 64, and are not currently enrolled on a course 2, 000 1. 50 m 1, 500 1. 06 m 1, 000 2001 to 2011 Increase of 41 per cent in the number of recent graduates 500 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Types of jobs Per cent Skill level of jobs Higher skill – Jobs generally require competence attained through post-compulsory education. Lower skill - Jobs generally require competence attained through compulsory education 80 Higher skill 64% 73% 60 40 27% Lower skill 20 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 36%

Graduates and non-graduates Per cent Graduates Recent graduates - higher employment rates up to the start of 2008 recession Non-graduates Tend to have higher levels of inactivity and unemployment – older demographic 100 Recent graduates 86% 90 All graduates 80 72% Non-graduates 70 60 50 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Graduate unemployment New graduates Have the highest unemployment rates – just starting to look for work Recession impact New graduates affected most – starting to look for work when the economy was weak Per cent 30 20 0 to 2 years ago 10 2 to 4 years ago 4 to 6 years ago 0 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Earnings by degree subject Non graduates - £ 8. 92 Medicine and dentistry Mathematical sciences, engineering, technology and architecture Physical or environmental sciences £ 21. 29 Business Education Law Social studies Biological and agricultural sciences Librarianship and languages Medical related subjects Humanities Arts All graduates - £ 15. 18 £ 12. 06 0 5 10 15 20 25 £ per hour

Summary of key messages • Some improvement in the labour market in recent months - But this has been driven by increases in part-time employment • Big job losses in the public sector in the last year - Wales particularly reliant on public sector employment • Rise in the number of graduates in the last 10 years - Fall in percentage in higher skill jobs - Unemployment rates lower for more experienced graduates – well below UK average – although new graduates are finding it difficult to find work following the recession - Science degrees tend to lead to higher pay – but average pay is higher for all degree subjects than average pay for non-graduates