Update on Cash Crops Corn Slumps on Sowing
- Slides: 24
Update on Cash Crops: Corn Slumps on Sowing Surge Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 8, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 97. 3 95. 4 90. 6 88. 0 93. 6 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 123. 1 158. 1 171. 0 168. 4 168. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 10, 755 13, 829 14, 216 13, 601 14, 378 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 989 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 837 Imports (mil. bu. ) 160 36 32 50 40 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 11, 904 14, 686 15, 479 15, 382 16, 255 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 315 5, 040 5, 324 5, 300 5, 425 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 641 5, 124 5, 200 5, 225 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 397 1, 369 1, 360 1, 375 Exports (mil. bu. ) 730 1, 920 1, 864 1, 650 1, 700 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 11, 083 13, 454 13, 748 13, 545 13, 725 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 837 2, 530 6. 89 4. 46 3. 70 3. 60 ? . ? ? Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 2 76. 8 83. 3 82. 7 82. 2 Yield (bu. /acre) 40. 0 44. 0 47. 5 48. 0 46. 7 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 042 3, 358 3, 927 3, 929 3, 796 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 169 141 92 191 460 Imports (mil. bu. ) 41 72 33 30 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 252 3, 570 4, 052 4, 150 4, 286 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 689 1, 734 1, 873 1, 870 1, 900 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 105 107 145 130 125 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 317 1, 638 1, 843 1, 690 1, 825 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 111 3, 478 3, 862 3, 690 3, 850 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 460 436 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 14. 40 13. 00 10. 10 8. 75 ? . ? ? Source: USDA-WAOB, adjusted for Mar. reports Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Wheat Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 55. 3 56. 2 56. 8 54. 6 49. 6 Yield (bu. /acre) 46. 2 47. 1 43. 7 43. 6 45. 9 Production (mil. bu. ) 2, 252 2, 135 2, 026 2, 052 1, 936 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 743 718 590 752 966 Imports (mil. bu. ) 123 173 149 120 125 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 118 3, 026 2, 766 2, 924 3, 027 Food (mil. bu. ) 945 958 967 971 Seed (mil. bu. ) 73 77 79 66 72 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 370 228 122 150 200 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 012 1, 176 854 775 850 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 2, 400 2, 436 2, 014 1, 958 2, 093 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 718 590 752 966 934 7. 77 6. 87 5. 99 5. 00 ? . ? ? Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Winter Wheat Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Spring Wheat Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Change in Planted Area Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 3. 72 3. 60 3. 56 Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 8. 81 8. 86 8. 87 Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Wheat Futures 5. 06 4. 91 4. 56 Source: CME Group, 4/6/2016 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2016 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØPlenty of acreage in play ØMoisture conditions will affect planting ØFor the most part, demand is holding up well 2014/15 2015/16 USDA Corn Soybeans Wheat $3. 70 $10. 10 $5. 99 $3. 60 $8. 75 $5. 00 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Futures (4/6/16) $3. 60 $8. 81 $4. 91 2016/17 Futures (4/6/16) $3. 56 $8. 86 $4. 56
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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