UNSTEP and UAScience Wednesday 27 th March 2013

UNS/TEP and UAScience Wednesday 27 th March, 2013 Bryant Bannister Tree Ring Building University of Arizona Confidential

Joaquin Ruiz Welcome! • Objective of Today’s Meeting – Joaquin Ruiz – Introductions • College of Science – Joaquin Ruiz – UNS/TEP and UAScience Partnership • Tech Launch Arizona – Paul Eynott – The Office of Technology Transfer – Leveraging UAScience through Innovative Approaches • Proof-of-Concept Program – Alexander Cronin • Discussion and Next Steps - All Confidential

Joaquin Ruiz < INTRODUCTIONS > Confidential 3

Paul Eynott < Tech Launch AZ > Confidential 3

Paul Eynott Tech Launch Arizona David Allen Executive Director Commercialization, Networks & Operations Technology Licensing University Research Parks Sherry Hoskinson Director Doug Hockstad Director Bruce Wright Associate VP Paul Eynott Confidential Corporate & Business Relations Nancy Smith Director

Paul Eynott “One-Stop-Shop” Support, Integrate & Coordinate Internal Activities Simplify Access to UA Resources – “Contact Points” Leverage & Expand Existing Relationships Expand the Engagement around Research Pipeline Establish Priority Company Targets Confidential

Leveraging UAScience - Proof-of-Concept Programs - Confidential Paul Eynott

Paul Eynott Program Size Continuum • Small programs ($10 K to $50 K grant) – – – Work conducted in inventor’s lab Less emphasis on platform IP, more on licensability Resources limit larger grants Return captured in university IP policy allocations Gift, government or internal tech transfer proceeds • Intermediate programs ($50 K to $250 K) – Characteristics are a mix of small and large programs – Often involvement from state governments and foundations • Large programs ($250 K + investment) – Approaching VC like model - ROI maximization driver Confidential

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Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton < Solar Power Forecasts > Forecasting Intermittency due to Clouds for MW-Scale Photovoltaic Generating Facilities Confidential 3

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton Numerical Weather Prediction Status Department of Atmospheric Sciences • Operational solar and wind power forecasts produced, daily, for 220 MW of Tucson basin solar resources and the Macho Springs 50 MW wind farm in New Mexico • Both graphical and text based “outputs” are available on the Atmospheric Sciences web site • A GUI/Web Page is being designed to display all renewable forecast and weather information – In partnership with The Institute for the Environment • Hiring process for a Post-Doc underway Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton Solar Irradiance Graphical Forecast Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton Solar Irradiance and Power Text Forecast • Based on 70 MW nameplate fixed tilt PV and 150 MW nameplate single axis tracker PV (around Tucson area) • Includes temperature effect on PV efficiency based on the numerical model temperature Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton Pending Work: 2013 -2014 • Improve forecasts based on a simple ensemble approach-blend of multiple forecasts • Develop a “confidence level” to the forecast • Integrate forecasts into TEP’s EMS and the UAScience GUI • Verify model forecast-currently impossible due to lack of solar/wind power production data Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton The Problem: • • PV output fluctuates (80% dropouts in 5 sec) TEP will have 250 MW of PV by 2013 TEP needs forecasts to ramp up generators No forecasts are good enough yet Our Solutions: • Advanced Numerical Weather Model • Irradiance Network and Velocity Model Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton AC Power (k. W) The Problem: time Aug 9 Aug 10 - ACC Regulations require Big Solar - Now Utility Operators need Forecasts Confidential

Our Solution #1 Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton Numerical Weather Model Forecast Good for: 2 -hr averages 40 hours in advance Our Solution #2 100 Rooftops + Wind Forecast Good for: 10 minute detail 1 -2 hours in advance Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton Commercialization Opportunity Strategy 1: Utility System Operators want an operational forecast product. Strategy 2: PV vendors can sell more if they smooth output based on forecasts. e. g. SOLON Corp. Strategy 3: Industry smart-grids need forecasting. e. g. Military, IBM Market Diver: e. g. TEP, APS Many (green) states have aggressive Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Growth rate of PV in USA = 71% in 2012 (SEIA. org) PV prices are falling. How can we handle so much PV? Confidential

Alexander Cronin, Mike Leuthold and Eric Betterton This Project Plan Task 1: Establish irradiance data feeds in real-time Use TEP properties, UA sensors, staff, & algorithm. Task 2: Deploy our operational forecast product online Develop utilization strategy with TEP Task 3: Use this grant to establish IP, hybrid strategies, Key partnerships, commercialization plan Confidential

Alexander Cronin and Eric Betterton Our Solutions: Our Forecasts based on Data from 100 rooftops Confidential

AC Power (k. W) The Problem: time Aug 9 Aug 10 ACC Regulations require Big Solar. Now Utility Operators need Forecasts.

Our Solution #1 Numerical Weather Model Forecast Good for: 2 -hr averages 40 hours in advance Our Solution #2 100 Rooftops + Wind Forecast Good for: 10 minute detail 1 -2 hours in advance

Distribution of ~280 MW 34 25 70 MW DG 6. 4 5 12 5 23 10 35 50 24

Paul Eynott < Commercialization > Confidential 3

Paul Eynott Confidential

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Paul Eynott < Discussion > Confidential

Joaquin Ruiz Renewable Energy Standards & Tariff – – The REST requirement is a % of TEP’s retail load Increases 0. 5 % annually through 2015 Then increases 1. 0% annually until target of 15% reached 30% of each year’s number must be from customer-sited distributed resources • Split equally between residential & non-residential – For 2013, the requirement is 4. 0%, which is approximately 375, 000 k. Wh or the equivalent annual consumption of almost 34, 000 homes Confidential

Joaquin Ruiz UAScience: Renewable Energy Solar Geothermal Wind Bioenergy Hydrogen & Fuel Cells Water Confidential