UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS The Potential of

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon Low Emissions Pathway to Emerging Economies and its Contribution towards Sustainable Development WWF Side Event UNFCCC- COP/MOP 13 10 th December 2007

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS This presentation 1. Overview – the scale of emissions 2. The Brazilian Amazon 3. The ARPA Programme • Financial and technical support to Amazon Protected Areas • 50 million hectares 4. The analysis • Objectives • Methods • Preliminary results 5. Conclusions and next steps

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Brazil - 4º. Larger Emitter (2000) Energy 16% Deforestation 62% Agriculture 22% WRI, 2007

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Brazilian Amazon • 330 million hectares (ha) of remaining forest State boundaries

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS • Lack of governance and contradictory policies • Infra-structure development, including continental integration • Agribusiness growth also over natural habitats • Illegal and unsustainable logging • ‘Land grabbing’ associated with social crimes State boundarie Brazilian Amazon

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Protected Areas 48% of the 330 million ha remaining forest are located in protected areas = 23. 9 billion tons of C State boundaries Indigenous lands (49% of the total)

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS ARPA - Amazon Region Protected Areas Programme • Financial and technical support to (Brazilian) Amazon protected areas • Objectives: – Create 37. 5 million hectares (ha) of protected areas – Implement 12. 5 million ha of protected areas Total = 50 million ha • Launched in 2002 by the Brazilian Government – implemented by the federal and state institutions – with support of GEF and World Bank, Kf. W and GTZ, WWF-Brasil (on behalf of WWF Network), FUNBIO, amongst others

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Protected Areas w/ ARPA Support 31, 2 million ha 19% of Amazon protected areas State boundaries Indigenous lands

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon Authors Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho Laura Dietzsch Paulo Moutinho Alerson Falieri Hermann Rodrigues The study has not been published yet, the data on this presentation should be consider as prelimanary results

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Objective of this Study Evaluate the contribution of ARPA-Supported Protected Areas in lowering Brazilian carbon emissions How we did it? ARPA Areas Carbon Stocks Threats Reduced Carbon Emissions

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Carbon Stock within ARPA Areas 47 billion tons of C in the Amazon 4. 5 billion tons of C in ARPAsupported protected areas State boundaries Saatchi et al. , 2007

Scenario Generating Model Simamazonia www. csr. ufmg. br Spatially explicit model Modeling conservation in the Amazon basin Soares Filho et al. , Nature, 2006

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS State boundaries Level of Future Threat (2050)

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Considering carbon and threats, protected areas located in deforestation frontier assume more importance Preliminary results Reduced Emissions vs. Carbon Stocks Total for ARPA-supported protected areas Carbon stocks = 4. 5 billion tons of C Reduced emissions = 1. 8 billion tons of C (2050)

Simulating the potential of protected areas in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions in BAU scenarios (until 2050) 7 billion tons of C 0. 6 billion tons of C Preliminary results

BAU Scenarios and Carbon Emissions (2050) UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS 7. 0 7. 6 2. BAU Scenario after massive (Soares-Filho et al. , creation of 20032007 PA 2006) 1. BAU Scenario 3. BAU Scenario after massive creation of 20032007 PA and 2008 ARPA expansion Preliminary results

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Summarizing Reduced C emissions Approach / scenario 1. 8 billion tons All ARPA areas (31, 2 million ha) 1. 15 billion tons ARPA areas created between 2003 and 2007 0. 6 billion tons If 2008 ARPA areas expansion occurs Preliminary results • The preliminary results show the potential importance of protected areas and ARPA in reducing carbon emissions (in the Brazilian Amazon)

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Next Steps • Evaluate the historical effect of ARPA in the management of protected areas • Study the direct and indirect reduction of emissions in many scenarios • Analyse scenarios of protected areas expansions • Indicate priorities for new protected areas (based on climate changes mitigation and adaptation, besides the current biological diversity guidance)

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Protected Areas: Lessons Learned (Brazilian Amazon) § the most important tools for nature conservation § a significant base to the sustainable development but… § not sufficient without broader scale actions and policies § Basket approach § Sustainable community livelihoods § Sustainable forest management § Sustainable agriculture and cattle ranching § Sustainable infra-structure development § immediate impact to slow deforestation § take away the possibility of land speculation § establishment and consolidation of protected areas with local support is key for the long term conservation

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS UNFCCC Links • ARPA contributes to long term broad polices and measures in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions SDPAMS • National Programme – Technology transfer and South—South cooperation – Finance – Governance and participation

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Thank you! WWF-Brasil fvasconcelos@wwf. org. br Karen@wwf. org. br IPAM lauradietzsch@ipam. org. br moutinho@ipam. org. br UFMG britaldo@csr. ufmg. br hermann@csr. ufmg. br alerson@csr. ufmg. br http: //www. csr. ufmg. br/simamazonia