Unit 2 Research Methods Module 4 The Need

Unit 2: Research Methods Module 4: The Need for Psychological Science Module 5: The Scientific Method and Description Module 6: Correlation and Experimentation Module 7: Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life Module 8: FAQ’s about Psychology

Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias: • the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. • Also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon.

Overconfidence • We tend to think we know more than we do – Richard Goranson Study (1978) • • WREAT ----- WATER ETRYN------ ENTRY GRABE------ BARGE OCHSA

Perceiving Order in Random Events • Comes from our need to make sense out of the world – Coin flip – Poker hand – Your test/quiz answers “An event that happens to but 1 in 1 billion people everyday occurs 7 times a day, 2, 500 times a year”

The Scientific Attitude: Curious, Skeptical and Humble • Three main components – Curious eagerness – Skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible – Open-minded humility before nature • Key Point: Hindsight bias, overconfidence and our tendency to perceive patters in random events often lead us to overestimate our intuition.

The Scientific Method • Theory • an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events. • Hypothesis • • a testable prediction, often implied by a theory. Can be confirmed or refuted

The Scientific Method • Operational Definitions: • In order to do research on subjective concepts (i. e. , love, fear, anxiety) researchers must make these subjective concepts objective. • They must be observable and measurable. • Operational definition of Anger for a road rage study: – Anger will be defined as presence of 3 of the following: Ø Increase in heart rate Ø Emotional Outbursts Ø Flushing of the face Ø Self report of anger (likert scale) Ø Physical Confrontation

The Scientific Method • Replication – repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances – Must have clear operational definition to replicate a study

The Scientific Method

Description • Case Study • an descriptive technique in which one individual or group is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles • Pros? • Cons?

Description • Naturalistic Observation – Describes behavior – Does not explain behavior – Pros? Cons?

Description • Survey – Looks at many cases at once – Anonymous • What percent of people pee in the shower? • Word effects • Random sampling – Representative sample – Sampling bias Just for fun…