Unit 2 Population Ch 2 3 Demographics Fast

Unit 2: Population Ch 2 & 3

Demographics Fast Facts o What is Demographics? o Why is it a vital study? o What factors contribute to the study of demographics? o What are the processes and cycles of population change? o What demographic issues are prevalent in the world?

Demographic Geography The study of population, the trends, and influences it has on people, countries, and politics

Fast Facts U. S. population- little over 310 million World pop- just over 7 billion Less Dev countries- 5. 2 billion World births/yr- 132. 3 mill Less dev births/yr- 123. 89 mill World births/sec- 4. 2 Less dev births/sec- 3. 9 World deaths/yr- 56 mill Less dev deaths/yr- 44 mill

Literacy Rates of Women Less dev. Countries: 76% Africa: 69% Africa (m): 81% Iraq (f): 29% Afghanistan (f): 12. 6% (total pop. ): 28. 1% Iran (f): 91% Chad (f): 12. 8% (total pop. ): 25. 7% Morocco (f): 61% Females Enrolled in Sec. School o 75% Iran o 41% Morocco

Demographic Patterns Population Rates Migration Patterns Population Density: total population relative to land size • Assumed even distribution of land/people Health Issues Status of Women

Issues to Discuss/Study: Population Growth Environments and natural resources strained Regional population shifts occur w/ droughts, famine, diseases Leveled off due to industrialism Population decline has its own disadvantages

Issues: Migration People in search of better lives, health, jobs continues Migration not just an international issue Effects migration has on receiving country o Economics, health care, education…

Issues to Discuss/Study: Distribution Whereo Distribution of people o Technology advanced societies find clusters in cities and towns • Arithmetic Density: population of a country/region expressed as an average per unit area o Physical Density- Physiological population density: number of people per unit area of agriculturally productive land

Issues: Population Policies Countries attempting to control birth rates and immigration This sometimes has a negative effect on the economy and population

Key Terms CBR- Crude Birth Rate per 1, 000 people CDR- Crude Death Rate/1, 000 NIR- Difference between CBR and CDR TFR- Total Fertility Rate- avg. amt of children to women of child bearing years IMR- Infant Mortality Rate- number of babies dead/1, 000 >1 year old Life Expectancy- avg. length of person’s life

NIR factors Economic development o Employment opportunities, nutrition Education o Better education leads to lower TFR Gender Empowerment o Relative status given to women, political, economic access increasing empowerment Healthcare o Improved healthcare decreases IMR; provide contraceptives that decrease CBR Cultural Traditions o Some cultures encourage high TFR; deter women from society

http: //www. greenbergart. com/. Toons, %20 Environ/Population. Train. html

Demographic Transition Theory Stage III Stage IV Birth Rate Population Death Rate Demographic Growth 1700 1800 1900 2000

Population Change DTM is a western model meant to illustrate stages of development and growth Not every country will go thru these stages at the same time or at all o China and Japan are examples of this phenomenon o Model is meant to show patterns found in history and geography Population changes as result of four things: o Births + immigration = increase o Deaths + emigration = decrease o TP=OP+B--D+I-E • Total pop. = Original pop. + Births- Deaths+ Immigrations Emigration o This equation better suited to study pop trends

What is the Demographic Transition? The shift from high to low mortality and fertility Based on the experience of Western Europe Began by Warren Thompson in 1929 Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress?

The Classic Demographic Transition Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Earth’s Population History 7 billion reached 2011 (12 years later) 6 billion reached 1999 (12 years later) 5 billion reached 1987 (13 years later) 4 billion reached 1974 (15 years later) 3 billion reached 1959 (29 years later) 2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later) 1 billion reached circa 1830 Source: Kuby, HGIA

Demographic Transition Model

DTM based on historical patterns in Europe & other MDCs

DTM only predicts changes in birth/death rates over time Observed changes in RNI correlate to changes in economic development Thus, DTM implies: The greater the wealth, the lower the RNI. . . but use caution describing this relationship

Stages in Classic 4 -Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM) (Some books show a 3 -stage model; others mention a new 5 th stage)

Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial” High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40) Population growth very slow Agrarian society High rates of communicable diseases Pop. increases in good growing years; declines in bad years (famine, diseases) No country or world region still in Stage One

Stage 2: “Early Industrial” High birth rates (over 30) but death rates decline (to about 20) RNIs increase sharply (pop. explosion); growth rate increases thruout Stage Two Growth not from increase in births, but from decline in deaths MDCs = starts early 1800 s LDCs = starts after 1950 s

TRANSITION TO STAGE TWO IN CLASSIC DTM Known as the Epidemiologic Transition Agricultural technology Improvements in food supply: higher yields as agricultural practices improved in “Second Agricultural Revolution” (18 th century) In Europe, food quality improved as new foods introduced from Americas Medical technology Better medical understanding (causes of diseases; how they spread) Public sanitation technologies Improved water supply (safe drinking water) Better sewage treatment, food handling, and general personal hygiene Improvements in public health especially reduced childhood mortality

Declining Infant Mortality Rates

When IMR declines, fertility rates drop soon after

1. Epidemiological Transition Age of communicative diseases Age of receding pandemics Age of degenerative and man-made diseases Share of mortality Degenerative diseases Low Fertility Low Mortality High Fertility High Mortality LI=70 years LI=30 years LI=50 years Communicative diseases High Fertility Decreasing Mortality Time

Stage 3: “Later Industrial” Birth rates decline sharply (to about 15) Death rates decline a bit more (to about 10 or less) Note growth still occurs, but at a reduced and declining rate MDCs = starts in late 1800 s LDCs = starts after 1980 s* * Or hasn’t started yet

Stage Three: Further improvements in medicine lower death rates more; raise life expectancies Measles Mortality, US, since 1900 TB Mortality, US, since 1900

TRANSITION TO STAGE THREE IN CLASSIC DTM Known as the Fertility Transition Societies become more urban, less rural Declining childhood death in rural areas (fewer kids needed) Increasing urbanization changes traditional values about having children City living raises cost of having dependents Women more influential in childbearing decisions Increasing female literacy changes value placed on motherhood as sole measure of women’s status Women enter work force: life extends beyond family, changes attitude toward childbearing Improved contraceptive technology, availability of birth control But contraceptives not widely avail in 19 th century; contributed little to fertility decline in Europe … Fertility decline relates more to change in values than to availability of any specific technology

Rapidly increasing urbanization in world LDCs today Population Classified as Urban

Strong inverse relationship between female literacy and fertility rates, observed globally Increasing availability and use of modern contraception in most LDCs since 1970 s

Stage 4: “Post-Industrial” Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10) Population growth very low or zero MDCs = starts after 1970 s LDCs = hasn’t started yet Stage 5 (? ): Hypothesized (not in Classic DTM) Much of Europe now or soon in population decline as birth rates drop far below replacement level

Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries

Differences in DTM experience: MDCs & LDCs ● Faster decline in death rates — Tech improvements diffused from MDCs & applied rapidly in LDCs post-WW 2 ● Longer lag between decline in deaths and decline in births — Stage 3 slower start in LDCs where econ growth is delayed ● Higher max rates of growth in LDCs — Over 3. 5% peak RNI in Mauritius and Mexico; only 1. 3% peak in Sweden

Age structures today in LDCs are much younger than MDCs experienced – leading to prolonged “Demographic Momentum” – expected growth of pop. long after fertility declines Percentage of Population Under Age 15

Malthus’ Theory of Population Growth In 1798 Thomas Malthus published his views on the effect of population on food supply. His theory has two basic principles: Population grows at a geometric rate i. e. 1, 2, 4, 16, 32, etc. Food production increases at an arithmetic rate i. e. 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.

Malthus (cont. ) The consequence of these two principles is that eventually, population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to support the new population numbers. Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached. Further growth would be limited when: o preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility rate), increased cost of food etc. o positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate.

Malthus (cont. ) Population grows geometrically…. Population exceeds carrying capacity… Population is kept in “check”– preventative and/or positive checks

2. The Malthusian Crisis The “Malthusian crisis” o Available agricultural spaces are limited. o Technical progresses (machinery, irrigation, fertilizers, and new types of crops) are slow to occur. o Increasing incapability to support the population. o If this persists, the population will eventually surpass the available resources. o The outcomes are “Malthusian crises”: • Food shortages. • Famines. • War and epidemics. o “Fix” the population in accordance with available resources. o Necessity of a “moral restraint” on reproduction.

2. The Malthusian Crisis t 3 Quantity Technological Innovation t 2 t 1 Resources Population Overexploitation Time

2. The Malthusian Crisis has not occurred o Malthus has been criticized on several accounts during the last 200 years. o Religious view (Protestantism), racist and elitist. o Did not foresee the demographic transition: • Changes in the economy that changed the role of children in the industrializing societies. o Failed to account for improvements in technology: • Enabled food production to increase at rates greater than arithmetic, often at rates exceeding those of population growth. • Enabled to access larger amounts of resources. • Enabled forms of contraception.

Global Growth in Population and Grain (Wheat and Rice) Production, 1961 -2005

Esther Boserup’s Theory of Population Growth In contrast to Malthus, instead of too many mouths to feed, Boserup emphasized the positive aspects of a large population; In simple terms, Boserup suggested that the more people there are, the more hands there are to work; She argued that as population increases, more pressure is placed on the existing agricultural system, which stimulates invention; The changes in technology allow for improved crop strains and increased yields.

Anti-populationists vs. pronatalists Malthus– anti-populationist o Echoed in recent debates by Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb; o Ehrlich believed that the earth’s carrying capacity would quickly be exceeded, resulting in widespread famine and population reductions; Boserup– pronatalist (cornucopian) o Echoed in recent debates by Julian Simon, who opposed Ehrlich by using economic theories; ie. Resources needed to support populations are becoming more abundant, not scarcer;

POPULATION STRUCTURE The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area OLD DEPENDANTS Population in Five Year Age bands ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE YOUNG DEPENDANTS MALES To the left Usually, but not always, in % to make for easier comparisons between countries FEMALES To the right

What Population Pyramids Show Us Economically More Developed Country Economically Less Developed Country KEY slope of pyramid indicate the death rate width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority) "kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different population age groups or different sex on one graph The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

Population Pyramids related to the Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 IMPLICATIONS Both birth rates and Death rates are High, so population growth rates are slow but population Is usually restored Due to high birth Rate. Short life Expectancy EXAMPLES: none today - Afghanistan, Ivory Coast (30 years ago)There are no Stage 1 countries today Stage 2 Stage 3 IMPLICATIONS Population continues to grow but at slower rate. Low C Death Rate. Dramatically declining Crude Birth Rate. Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate Higher dependency ratio and longer life expectancy Crude Death Rate does Rise slightly because of The ageing population Population starts to grow at an exponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age. Life expectancy rises Infant mortality rate falls. EXAMPLES: DR Congo, Yemen, Afghanistan (today) Stage 4 EXAMPLES: India, Brazil (late 3) – Most of EXAMPLES: China, United world is in 3 States, Canada, Australia There is some merit in including or considering a Stage 5 today with a declining population. Europe - Japan

Practice with real pyramids-What Stage of DTM? 3 2 4 5

Practice with real pyramids-What Stage of DTM is US? Challenging – why? 2011 Data • TFR 2. 1 • BR 14 • DR 8 • Natural Increase: . 6% • Growth Rate: . 9% • Why is Growth Rate higher? • How does this impact pyramid? • Pyramid looks like a late 3 country. • But does US fit description profile of Stage 4 better?

Summary of DTM for LDCs Industrializing LDCs with some economic development follow DTM more closely; now in Stage Three. Most like MDCs in places where female literacy has increased the most. Lowest-income countries have high birth rates and deaths are leveling off at higher rates than DTM predicts (Stage Two). In some LDCs, death rates starting to increase (epidemics, worsening poverty)

AZ: Breakdown by Ethnic Population Groups within MDCs may have varying pop patterns

Health Influences Infant mortality rate (IMR) o Babies death within 1 st year of life o Reflects overall health of a society o High IMR= physical health of mother key factor, inadequately nourished, exhausted from over work, poorly educated, infants die due to improper weaning, diarrhea, malnutrition poor sanitation o globally IMR is on the decline even in poverty stricken countries o Varies with in countries Newborn death rate (NDR) o Measure of how many babies die within 1 st month of life out of 1000 o US has second highest NDR in world –from premature births & low birth rate babies o In poorer nations it is due to diarrhea and infections o 99% of newborn deaths & 98% of maternal deaths occur in LDC

Health Influences Child mortality rate (CMR) o Those that die between the ages of 1 -5 o Kwashiorkor: protein malnutrition o Marasmus: inadequate protein & calories Life Expectancy o Expected age at birth o Japan highest in world, projected to be 106 in 2300 o Tropical Sub-Saharan African lowest • If you make it out of childhood you will more than likely live way past the LE

Diseases Infectious: invasion of parasites on the body o Kills millions world wife annually o Vectored: malaria • Given to you by a mosquito, flea, worm, snail, etc. • Tropical climates the worst o Non vectored: influenza • Given to you by a kiss, handshake, sneeze/cough, bodily contact Chronic or Degenerated: afflictions of middle/old age o Heart disease, cancer, strokes, pneumonia, diabetes, tuberculosis Genetic: passed down through genes o Allergies, heart disease, some cancers AIDS o Low life expectancies o Pandemic o Reshaping populations in Africa & South East Asia

Power of Place questions How did the Aswan Dam change life in Egypt? How is Egypt reclaiming the desert? Describe life in the Sultanate of Oman before the development of its oil reserves. What is Omanization?

Let’s Discuss What is Immigration? Why has immigration played an important role in the development of the United States? (hint: think about your own family) Why do people immigrate to the US? Why do they leave their country? When you hear the word “immigrant” what is the first thing that comes to mind? Why is immigration a hot topic now –especially politically & economically? Why do people in the US have a negative opinion about immigration?

Write it Out On a sheet of paper answer the following questions o Do you think that they US should deport all illegal immigrants? Why/why not? o Do you think the US should build a wall along the entire border it shares with Mexico? What about Canada? When you are finished turn it in and get ready to watch the movie!! o Ready = listening, reading (yep there are subtitles), paper to write notes on, move if your neighbor is going to distract you, put phones and mp 3 players in your pocket or backpack

Lost Boys of Sudan In your notebook on page 31 -33 If you could ask anyone in the film a single question, who would you ask and what would you ask them? Did anything in this film surprise you? If so, what? Why was it surprising? What insights or new knowledge did you gain from this film? Two months from now, what do you think you will remember from this film? In your view, what is the significance of the film’s title? Create a Venn Diagram comparing/contrasting last week’s video to this week’s video o You must have at least 3 items in each portion of the bubble

MIGRATION Chapter 3

What Is Migration? • Movement – Cyclic movement: Movement away from home for a short period • Commuting • Seasonal movement • Nomadism – Periodic movement: Movement away from home for a longer period. • Migrant labor • Transhumance • Military service

Migration – A change in residence that is intended to be permanent. Little Haiti, Miami, Florida

International migration: Movement across country borders (implying a degree of permanence)

Internal migration: Movement within a single country’s borders (implying a degree of permanence)

Why do People Migrate? • Forced Migration – Human migration flows in which the movers have no choice but to relocate. • Voluntary Migration – Human migration flows in which the movers respond to perceived opportunity, not force.

Why Do People Migrate? • Forced migration: Movers have no choice but to relocate

Kinds of Voluntary Migration • Step Migration – When a migrant follows a path of a series of stages, or steps toward a final destination. * intervening opportunity –at one of the steps along the path, pull factors encourage the migrant to settle there. • Chain Migration – When a migrant communicates to family and friends at home, encouraging further migration along the same path, along kinship links.

Voluntary Migration • Migrants weigh push and pull factors to decide – Whether to move – Where to go • Distance decay: Many migrants settle closer to their old home than they originally contemplate

Simple Push/Pull Migration Model Location A Push PUSH FACTORS Pressures which persuade a person to move away from an area. Location B Migration Pull PULL FACTORS Those which attract the migrant to a particular destination.

Push and Pull Factors • Legal status • Economic conditions • Power relationships • Political circumstances • Armed conflict and civil war • Environmental conditions • Culture and traditions • Technological advances

Economic Conditions – Migrants will often risk their lives in hopes of economic opportunities that will enable them to send money home (remittances) to their family members who remain behind.

Environmental Conditions – In Montserrat, a 1995 volcano made the southern half of the island, including the capital city of Plymouth, uninhabitable. People who remained migrated to the north or to the U. S.

Real / Perceived Location A + Lee’s Migration Model Intervening Obstacles + 0 Does not isolate particular push and pull factors. Each site has a range of attributes. Different people will have different perceptions of the factors. Location B 0 Intervening Place + ? 0 Source: Adapted from Global Challenge. Alistair Mc. Naught and Michael Witherick. Longman. 2001.

Lee’s Migration Model Source: Population, Resources and Development. Jane Chrispin and Francis Jegede. Collins Educational. 1996.

Ravenstein’s Laws 1. Every migration flow generates a return or countermigration. 2. The majority of migrations move a short distance. 3. Migrants who move longer distances tend to choose big-city destinations. 4. Urban residents are less migratory than inhabitants of rural areas. 5. Families are less likely to make international moves than young adults.

Step Migration

Step Migration

Gravity Model = the # of migrants Based upon Newton’s law of Universal Gravitation “The number of people moving between places A and B is equal to the population of A multiplied by the population of B divided by the square of the distance between them. ” The potential number of migrants will be bigger where the population of the of departure and arrival are large. The friction of distance acts as a break.

Gravity Model

Where Do People Migrate? • Influences on major global migration flows from 1550– 1950 – Exploration – Colonization – The Atlantic slave trade • Impacts – Places migrants leave – Places to which migrants go

Major Global Migration Flows (before 1950)

Regional Migration Flows Migration to neighboring countries For short term economic opportunities To reconnect with cultural groups across borders To flee political conflict or war Islands of development: Places where foreign investment, jobs, and infrastructure are concentrated

Migration for Economic Opportunity Chinese migration in late 1800 s and 1900 s throughout Southeast Asia to work in trade, commerce, and finance

Migration to Reconnect with Cultural Groups • Migration of about 700, 000 Jews to then. Palestine between 1900 and 1948 • Forced migration of 600, 000 Palestinian Arabs after 1948, when the land was divided into two states (Israel and Palestine)

Migration within a Country • Migration between regions of a country – Migration between regions within the U. S. – Migration between regions in other countries • Migration within one region – Rural-urban migration – Urban-suburban migration – Migration from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan regions

Center of Population in the U. S. Fig. 3 -12: The center of U. S. population has consistently moved westward, with the population migration west. It has also begun to move southward with migration to the southern sunbelt.

Interregional Migration in the U. S. Fig. 3 -13: Average annual migrations between regions in the U. S. in 1995 and in 2000.

Intraregional Migration in the U. S. Fig. 3 -14: Average annual migration among urban, suburban, and rural areas in the U. S. during the 1990 s. The largest flow was from central cities to suburbs.

Contemporary Migration Fields

Global Migration Patterns Fig. 3 -2: The major flows of migration are from less developed to more developed countries.

Net Migration (per population) Fig. 3 -3: Net migration per 1000 population. The U. S. has the largest number of immigrants, but other developed countries also have relatively large numbers.

Migration to U. S. , by Region of Origin Fig. 3 -4: Most migrants to the U. S were from Europe until the 1960 s. Since then, Latin America and Asia have become the main sources of immigrants.

Migration from Asia to the U. S. Fig. 3 -5: The largest numbers of migrants from Asia come from India, China, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Migration from Latin America to the U. S. Fig. 3 -6: Mexico has been the largest source of immigrants to the U. S. , but immigrants have also come from numerous other Latin American nations.

Change in Pattern (US)

Undocumented Immigrants in the US Fig. 3 -7: California, Texas, and Florida are the leading destinations for undocumented immigrants to the U. S.

U. S. Mexico Border at Tijuana The U. S. side of the border is uninhabited and separated from Mexico by a fence

U. S. States as Immigrant Destinations Fig. 3 -8: California is the destination of about 25% of all US immigrants; another 25% go to New York and New Jersey. Other important destinations include Florida, Texas, and Illinois. What are the “US gateway” states?

Guest Workers Migrants allowed into a country to fill a labor need, assuming the workers will go “home” once the labor need subsides Have short term work visas Send remittances to home country

Guest Workers in Europe Fig. 3 -9: Guest workers emigrate mainly from Eastern Europe and North Africa to work in the wealthier countries of Western Europe.

Global Remittances http: //www. economist. com/node/21553458/print

Turkish Kebab Stand in Germany

Refugees People who flee across an international boundary because of a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion

Regions of Dislocation • Subsaharan Africa • North Africa and Southwest Asia • Southeast Asia • Europe

The Sudan – Fighting in the Darfur region of the Sudan has generated thousands of refugees. In eastern Chad, the Iridimi refugee camp is home to almost 15, 000 refugees from the Darfur province, including the women in this photo.

Refugees: Sources & Destinations Fig. 3 -1: Major source and destination areas of both international and internal refugees.

Hurricane Katrina Migrants A major natural disaster represents an environmental push factor forced migration.

Scene from The Grapes of Wrath The Dust Bowl in the 1930 s led to forced migration from the Great Plains to California and elsewhere.

Fukashima Japan

How Do Governments Affect Migration? • Immigration laws • U. S. history – Little restriction – Quotas by nationality – Selective immigration

Governments Place Legal Restrictions on Migration • Immigration laws – laws that restrict or allow migration of certain groups into a country. – Quotas limit the number of migrants from each region into a country. – A country uses selective immigration to bar people with certain backgrounds from entering.

Waves of Immigration Changing immigration laws, and changing push and pull factors create waves of immigration.

Post–September 11

Obstacles to Migration • Immigration policies of host countries – – U. S. quota laws Temporary migration for work Time-contract workers Economic migrants or refugees? • Cultural problems living in other countries – U. S. attitudes to immigrants – Attitudes to guest workers