UNFCCC press conference Bonn 17 November 2008 UNFCCC

UNFCCC press conference, Bonn, 17 November 2008 UNFCCC data 2008: highlights by Sergey KONONOV (UNFCCC secretariat) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Background: now 2 sets of data Convention data (= “emissions data”) • For 41 Annex I Parties (industrialized countries) • Reported data for 1990– 2006 – GHG emissions/removals – with/without sinks (LULUCF) • Published as FCCC/SBI/2008/12 (“GHG data report”) “emissions side” KP data (new in 2008) (= “accounting data”) • For Annex B Parties (39) – Annex B = Annex I – US – Turkey • Data from “initial review under KP” – KP base year level => assigned amounts (AA) for 2008– 2012 – eligibility to trade under KP – various accounting parameters • Published as FCCC/KP/CMP/2008/9 (“Compilation and accounting report” or “C&A report”) “accounting side” compliance with KP (after 2012) 2

Highlights (1): Convention data Data by Annex I groups: • Annex I all (41 Parties) • Annex I EITs (14) • Annex I non-EITs (26) Trends of interest: • Long-term trend for Convention period (1990– 2006) => … • Short-term trend for recent years (2000– 2006) => … 3

Convention data / long-term: changes 1990– 2006 Changes in million t CO 2 -eq: All Annex I – 894 Annex non-EITs +1290 Annex I EITs – 2184 Observations: • Overall, Annex I emissions below base year (– 5%) • Most of the long-term decrease comes from EITs (see in Mt CO 2 -eq…) Note: the data above are for GHG emissions without LULUCF; most trends for net emissions including LULUCF are similar although not necessarily equivalent (see UNFCCC reports with detailed data) 4

Convention data / short-term: changes 2000– 2006 Changes in million t CO 2 -eq: All Annex I +403 Annex non-EITs +145 Annex I EITs +258 Observations: • Distinct increases in 2000– 2006 – AI total = +2. 3%; AI non-EITs = +1. 0%; AI EITs = +7. 4% • Same trend as noted last year, but • The increase from 2000 is lower than in last year’s report – 2007 report: AI total = +2. 6%; AI non-EITs = +1. 9%; AI EITs = +5. 8% – decrease (– 0. 1% for AI total) occurred in 2005– 2006 (non-EITs: – 1%, EITs: +3%) Note: the data above are for GHG emissions without LULUCF; most trends for net emissions including LULUCF are similar although not necessarily equivalent (see UNFCCC reports with detailed data) 5

Background: now 2 sets of data Convention data (= “emissions data”) • Reported data for 1990– 2006 – GHG emissions/removals – with/without sinks (LULUCF) • For 41 Annex I Parties (industrialized countries) KP data (new in 2008) (= “accounting data”) • Data from “initial review under KP” – KP base year level => assigned amounts (AA) for 2008– 2012 – eligibility to trade under KP – various accounting parameters • For Annex B Parties (39) – Annex B = Annex I – US – Turkey • Published as FCCC/SBI/2008/12 (“GHG data report”) “emissions side” • Published as FCCC/KP/CMP/2008/9 (“Compilation and accounting report” or “C&A report”) “accounting side” 6

Highlights (2): accounting data from initial review under KP Data reported by Parties=> reviewed by experts => finalized in 2007– 2008 • Assigned amount for 2008– 2012 (fixed emissions quota for 5 years) • Main accounting parameters (mostly LULUCF) • Review completed for 36 of 39 Annex B Parties – pending for Australia, Belarus, Croatia Accounting values are now in ITL and registries; full trading enabled • 33 registries + CDM registry are currently live with ITL (only 3 registries + CDM were operational in 2007) • Kyoto Protocol trading through ITL is ongoing • Extensive reporting from Parties on the status of trading are due in 2009 • Number of transactions on steep increase after CITL->ITL link in October – at CITL-ITL linking, 26 EU registries were connected to the ITL Comparisons with official KP baseline (without trading) now possible… Note 1: ITL = UNFCCC’s International Transaction Log Note 2: Assigned amount for 2008– 2012 is determined from a) base year level, and b) Kyoto Protocol target Note 3: Base year (BY) definition under KP slightly differs from the Convention (F-gases, deforestation, KP coverage) 7

Changes for individual Parties not yet on target now (2006) full data not yet available 3 16 20 Observations: (1) NOT a compliance assessment (too simple, too early)! (2) diverse trends for Parties => potential for mechanisms 8

GHG emissions in 2006 compared to KP base year (36 Parties) in billion tonnes 1. 8 in % -16. 7 Observations: • Overall, Annex B emissions well below base year (– 17%) – the overall KP – 5% target achievable for Annex B group – decreases in EITs essential; slightly above base year for non-EITs • Further monitoring important (see the 2000– 2006 trend) 9

Summary • 2008 update for all Annex I Convention Parties together: – emissions are currently (2006) below 1990 level (– 5%) – increase from 2000 requires attention • 2008: official accounting data under KP available/used in trade – data finalized through the initial review process – data for most Parties are in ITL and registries – full KP trading enabled: 33 registries + CDM registry live with ITL • Comparisons of emissions and KP base year now possible – with current data (– 17%), the – 5% KP target looks achievable – trends in individual Parties differ; potential for mechanisms indicated • Note of caution: – this comparison of emission trends is NOT a compliance assessment (2006 data, not 2008– 2012; no impact of mechanisms and LULUCF) 10

References • FCCC/SBI/2008/12 (“GHG data report”) – published – UNFCCC document with 1990– 2006 data on GHG emissions/removals from Annex I Parties • FCCC/KP/CMP/2008/9 (“C&A report”) – published – UNFCCC document with the 1 st compilation and accounting report for Annex I Parties (with assigned amounts, eligibility and other results from the initial review under Kyoto Protocol) • FCCC/KP/CMP/2008/7 (“ITL report”) – to be published – UNFCCC document with the report of the ITL administrator • UNFCCC GHG data interface online: – unfccc. int/ghg_data/items/3800. php: main page – unfccc. int/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146. php: Convention data – http: //unfccc. int/ghg_data/kp_data_unfccc/items/4357. php: KP data • UNFCCC web page on registry systems and the ITL: – http: //unfccc. int/kyoto_protocol/registry_systems/items/2723. php 11