UNESCO Institute for Statistics Education related MDG indicators

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Education related MDG indicators: methodology and issues Ioulia Sementchouk UNESCO Institute for Statistics November 21, 2012 1

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Outline p Millennium Development Goals n Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education n Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women 2

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Education is vital to meet all of the development goals 3

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Goal 2 p Achieve universal primary education Target 2. A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling 4

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Monitoring indicators: Target 2. A Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling Participation Net enrolment rate Progress Outcome Survival rate to the last grade Youth literacy rate 5

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Participation p Indicator 2. 1: Net enrolment rate in primary education 6

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Net enrolment rate (NER) p Definition: Percentage of children of the official primary age group who are enrolled in primary education. p Calculation: Divide the number of pupils of the official primary age group who are enrolled in primary education by the population of the same age group and multiply the result by 100. 7

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Net enrolment rate (NER) 8

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Republic of Moldova (2011) Entry age: 7 year old Duration: 4 years Official age group: 7 -10 Enrolment in official =129, 870 age group Enrolment in primary education Age Population 5 37, 472 19 6 37, 484 5, 088 7 36, 206 32, 111 8 36, 373 33, 983 9 37, 196 33, 084 10 38, 122 30, 692 11 39, 200 3, 027 12 40, 777 296 13 43, 147 68 14 46, 737 47 15 49, 511 21 Total 138, 436

Recent update UNESCO Institute for Statistics p Concept of out-of-school children is redefined: n p Children of primary school age are counted as being in school when they are either in primary or secondary education. Adjusted NER (NERA) is more appropriate to monitor MDGs n NERA: including primary school age in secondary education 10

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA) p Definition: Percentage of children of the official primary age group who are enrolled in primary or secondary education. p Calculation: Divide the total number of pupils in the official primary age group who are enrolled in primary or secondary education by the population of the same age group and multiply the result by 100. 11

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA) 12

Republic of Moldova (2011) UNESCO Institute for Statistics Official age group: 7 -10 Enrolment in Population primary education secondary education Age Total enrolment 7 36, 206 32, 111 n 32, 111 8 36, 373 33, 983 n 33, 983 9 37, 196 33, 084 38 33, 122 10 38, 122 30, 692 4, 054 34, 746 Total 147, 897 129, 870 4, 092 133, 962

UNESCO Institute for Statistics NER vs NERA 14

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Adjusted net enrolment rate p Interpretation: Increasing NERA might reflect improving participation of children in the official primary school age, the decrease of the target population or both. A value of 100% might indicate that the country has accomplished the UPE goal. However, this condition is not sufficient for UPE due to, for example, a high repetition rate, which might lead pupils to dropout after primary school age without completing primary education. 15

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Adjusted net enrolment rate p Limitations: The theoretical maximum of NERA is 100 per cent. However, the NERA may exceed this maximum due to inconsistencies between population and enrolment data derived from different data sources. School enrolments may be over or under-reported for various reasons. 16

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Progress p Indicator 2. 2: Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach the last grade of primary 17

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Survival rate to the last grade of primary education p Definition: Percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in the first grade who are expected to reach the last grade of primary education, regardless the repetition. p Rationale: This indicator measures an education system’s success in retaining students from one grade to the next as well as its internal efficiency. Various factors account for poor performance on this indicator, including low quality of schooling, discouragement over poor achievement and the direct and indirect costs of schooling. Students’ progress to higher grades may also be limited by the availability of teachers, classrooms and educational materials. 18

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Survival rate to the last grade of primary education Calculation: The survival rate is calculated on the basis of the reconstructed cohort method, which uses data on enrolment and repeaters for two consecutive years. This method makes three assumptions: n dropouts never return to school; n promotion, repetition and dropout rates remain constant over the entire period in which the cohort is enrolled in school; n the same rates apply to all pupils enrolled in a given grade, regardless of whether they previously repeated a grade. 19

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Survival rate to the last grade of primary education Dropout Grade 1 Grade 2 Enrollment Repeaters Promotees 20

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Survival rate to the last grade of primary education Where: . . . 21

Albania (2010) UNESCO Institute for Statistics Duration: 5 years Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 2010 2011 Enrolment A A B B 42, 673 39, 932 39, 500 41, 989 46, 966 39, 272 47, 569 46, 801 48, 073 47, 666 2011 Repeaters C C 572 298 298 245 245 245 521 2011 Promotion P=(B-C)/A 97. 7% 98. 8% 99. 1% 2011 Repeat R=C/A 1. 3% 0. 8% 0. 5% 1. 1% 2011 Dropout 100 -P-R 1. 0% 0. 4% 2011 Promoted P/(100 -R) 99. 0% 99. 6% 2010 Survival rate 100. 0% 99. 0% 98. 6% 98. 2% 97. 9% 22

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Survival rate to the last grade of primary education, 1999 and 2010 23

Survival rate to the last grade of primary education UNESCO Institute for Statistics p Interpretation: Indicator values range from 0% (none of the pupils starting grade 1 reach the last grade) to 100% (all of the pupils reach the last grade). Survival rate approaching 100 per cent indicate a high level of retention and a low incidence of dropout. It is important to note that it does not imply that all children of school age complete primary education. Survival rate is a percentage of a cohort of pupils (that is, children who have already entered school) and not a percentage of children of school age. 24

Survival rate to the last grade of primary education UNESCO Institute for Statistics p Limitations: Since the calculation of the proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary is based on pupil-flow rates, the reliability of the survival rate depends on the consistency of data coverage on enrolment and repeaters over time and across grades. Given that this indicator is usually estimated using cohort analysis models that are based on a number of assumptions, care should be taken in using the results in comparisons. 25

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Proxy measure of primary completion: Gross intake ratio to the last grade p Definition: Total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population at theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary. p Calculation: Divide the number of new entrants in last grade of primary, regardless of age, by the population of theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary, and multiply the result by 100. 26

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary education 27

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary education p Limitations: The calculation includes all new entrants to the last grade (regardless of age). Therefore, the ratio can exceed 100%, due to over-aged and underaged children who enter primary school late/early and/or repeat grades in previous years. However, in the long run the Gross intake ratio to the last grade should approach 100%. 28

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gross intake rate to the last grade of primary education, 1999 and 2011

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Outcome p Indicator 2. 3: Literacy rate of 15 - to 24 -year-old women and men 30

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Youth literacy rate (15 -24 years) p Definition: Percentage of people aged 15 to 24 years who can both read and write with understanding a short, simple statement on their everyday life. p Calculation: Divide the number of people aged 15 to 24 years who are literate by the total population in the same age group and multiply the result by 100. 31

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Youth literacy rate (15 -24 years) 32

Youth literacy rate (15 -24 years) UNESCO Institute for Statistics p p Interpretation: The indicator ranges from 0% (all youth are illiterate) to 100% (all youth are literate). Literacy rates below 100 per cent indicate the need to increase school participation and education quality. Rationale: The youth literacy rate reflects the outcomes of the primary education system over the previous 10 years, and is often seen as a proxy measure of social progress and economic achievement. The literacy rate is the complement of the illiteracy rate. It is not a measure of the adequacy of the literacy levels needed for individuals to function and participate in a society (functional literacy). 33

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Youth literacy rate (15 -24 years)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Youth literacy rate (15 -24 years)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Youth literacy rate (15 -24 years) p Limitations: Some countries apply definitions and criteria for literacy which are different from the international standard defined above, or equate persons with no schooling to illiterates, or change definitions between censuses. Practices for identifying literates and illiterates during actual census enumeration may also vary. Errors in literacy self-declaration can affect the reliability of the statistics. 36

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Goal 3 p Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3. A: Eliminating gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later that 2015 37

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Monitoring indicator: Target 3. A Eliminating gender disparities by 2005 in primary and secondary education, and at all levels no later than 2015 Equal participation of boys and girls Gender parity index of Gross enrolment ratio 38

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Equal participation of boys and girls p Indicator 3. 1: Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education 39

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gender parity index (GPI) Definition: Ratio of female to male values of a given indicator. p Purpose: The GPI measures progress towards gender parity in education participation and/or learning opportunities available for girls in relation to those available to boys. p Calculation: Divide the female value of an indicator by the male value of the same indicator. p 40

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gender parity index (GPI) Where: GPI GER Female GER Male Gender parity index for Gross enrolment ratio for female Gross enrolment ratio for male 41

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gross enrolment ratio (GER) p Definition: Total enrolment in a specific level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the official school age population corresponding to the same level of education. p Calculation: Divide the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age group which officially corresponds to the same level of education, and multiply the result by 100. 42

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gross enrolment ratio (GER) 43

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011) Entry age: 6 year old Duration: 5 years Age 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Population Female Male 16, 690 17, 833 17, 398 18, 586 18, 198 19, 435 19, 042 20, 331 20, 012 21, 351 91, 340 97, 536 Enrolment in primary education Female Male 14, 477 15, 213 16, 484 17, 351 16, 273 17, 357 17, 352 18, 151 16, 716 17, 503 1, 639 1, 969 72 104 28 38 14 22 32 47 83, 087 87, 755 44

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Measuring gender parity GER for Primary education, 2011 Gender parity index – an index of 1. 00 is perfect parity, and 0. 97 – 1. 03 is considered a zone of gender parity ↓ ↓ ↓ 1. 00 Higher rate among boys Higher rate among girls Perfect parity Tajikistan Albania Georgia Girls GER 98. 4 85. 4 108. 1 Boys GER 102. 4 86. 4 105. 0 GPI 0. 96 0. 99 1. 03 45

Gender parity index by level of education, 1999 and 2011 UNESCO Institute for Statistics The horizontal green bar represents the zone of gender parity Primary education Secondary education Tertiary education 46

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Gender parity index (GPI) p Limitations: The index does not show whether improvement or regression is due to the performance of one of the gender groups (boys or girls). Interpretation of the GPI requires trend analysis of the underlying GER values. 47

Additional indicators for analysis Are there enough places for all children? p Gross enrolment ratio n Do children start school at the right age? p Gross intake rate p Net intake rate p Adjusted net intake rate n Do all children go to school? p Numbers of children out-of-school UNESCO Institute for Statistics n 48

Additional indicators for analysis How do children progress through the system? p Promotion rate p Repetition rate n Do children complete primary education? p Primary completion rate UNESCO Institute for Statistics n 49

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Azerbaijan (2011) p Most children are in school but NERA is low - why? Entry age: 6 year old Duration: 4 years Official age group: 6 -9 Enrolment in primary education Enrolment in secondary education Age Population 5 120, 999 8, 986 n 6 121, 286 96, 895 n 7 132, 395 113, 448 n 8 127, 083 115, 544 n 9 124, 368 111, 621 3, 311 10 129, 599 31, 393 77, 913 Total 505, 132 437, 508 3, 311 50

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Azerbaijan (2011) p Percentage of 6 - and 7 -year-olds in primary grade 1 51

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Azerbaijan (2011) p Reason for low NERA: late entry into primary school Entry age: 6 year old Age Population Enrolment in Grade 1 of primary education 5 120, 999 68 6 121, 286 92, 578 7 132, 395 25, 678 8 127, 083 1, 627 9 124, 368 13 10 129, 599 16 11 134, 296 15 12 138, 566 3 Total 119, 998

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Summary p p p MDG 2 (Universal primary education) MDG 3 (gender equality) Indicators: n Net enrolment rate (NER) n Adjusted NER (NERA) n Survival rate to last primary grade n Gross intake ratio to last primary grade n Youth literacy rate n Gender parity index (GPI) n Gross enrolment ratio (GER) 53

UNESCO Institute for Statistics Contact information Ioulia Sementchouk Education Indicators and Data Analysis UNESCO Institute for Statistics i. sementchouk@unesco. org www. uis. unesco. org 54