Unemployment Supply and Demand Model 2 Supply Demand
- Slides: 43
Unemployment
Supply and Demand Model 2
Supply - Demand Model Wage D’ S’ Rp 15 Supply E Rp 10 Demand 3 Unemployment = 47 5 Employment 3
Supply Demand Model • Firm membayar upah yang lebih tinggi dari tingkat equilibrium sehingga terjadi excess supply TK. • Tingkat upah bersifat “sticky” sehingga tidak dapat diatur menuju tingkat upah equilibrium. 4
Pengangguran di Indonesia (Persen) 12, 0 9, 1 9, 0 8, 1 7, 2 6, 0 4, 4 3, 0 0, 0 4, 9 4, 7 5, 5 6, 4 6, 1 9, 6 9, 9 11, 2 10, 3 9, 1 8, 4 7, 9 7, 1 2, 8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5
TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT 6
Frictional Unemployment Frictional unemployment arises because both workers and firms need time to alocate each other and to digest the information about the value of the job match. 7
Frictional Unemployment Bukan merupakan permasalahan utama dalam perekonomian 8
Frictional Unemployment Solusi : • Menyediakan informasi kesempatan kerja bagi TK. • Menyediakan informasi pencari kerja bagi perusahaan. KATALISATOR PASAR KERJA 9
Structural Unemployment • Imbalance between Labor Supply and Labor Demand • The kinds of persons looking for work do not “fit” the jobs available THE REAL PROBLEM IS SKILL 10
Structural Unemployment Solusi : Peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia PENDIDIKAN 11
Cyclical Unemployment Cyclical unemployment arises because of the economy has moved into a recession 12
Cyclical Unemployment 13
Cyclical Unemployment To reduce cyclical unemployment, Government will have to stimulate aggregate demand reestablish market equilibrium at the sticky wage 14
Unemployment Data 15
Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Propinsi dan Pendidikan (Februari 2012) 2 000 112 540 61 577 1 750 000 281 345 1 500 000 1 250 000 1 000 411 890 499 600 750 000 294 212 500 000 250 000 67 20 066 406 95 819 166 681 602 054 50 31 388 623 129 799 152 397 207 679 362 289 247 574 19 10 276 62 067 225 153 000 156 576 178 533 101 461 23 366 105 765 192 921 70 219 72 781 0 Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Jawa Timur Banten D. K. I. Jakarta ≤ SD SMTP SMTA Umum SMTA Kejuruan Diploma Universitas 16
Penganggur Terbuka Nasional Menurut Pendidikan dan Kategori (Februari 2012) 193 068 407 886 Diploma Universita s 14 638 20 845 sit a s m a er 527 661 386 073 128 158 27 459 U 99 686 2 13 845 32 827 16 284 17 712 13 538 1 1 071 044 1 085 163 1 495 076 815 400 193 068 407 886 29 227 SM 3 953 666 TA ni v an ur u ej 99 686 SM K U SMTA Kejuruan 30 483 D ip SMTA Umum 69 615 m um TP 89 781 TA 75 106 SMTP SM 4 ≤ SD 27 459 lo 100% 386 073 128 158 527 661 75% 953 666 50% 1 495 076 815 400 1 085 163 25% 1 071 044 0% 1. Mencari pekerjaan, 2. Mempersiapkan usaha, 3. Tidak mencari pekerjaan, 4. Sudah punya 17 pekerjaan tapi belum mulai bekerja
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATION USA 1970 -2002 18
WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT MAP 2012 19
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment 20
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment l probability of Job loser ( l x E ) Employed ( E worker) losing a job Unemployed ( U wokers) h probability of finding a job Job finders ( h x U ) 21
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Long-run equilibrium unemployment rate konstan, sehingga dalam kondisi steadystate : l. E=h. U (Persamaan 1) 22
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Labor Force (LF) terdiri dari employed dan unemployed, maka LF = E + U (Persamaan 2) 23
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Subtitusi Persamaan 1 & 2 : l (LF – U) = h U (Persamaan 3) 24
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Rate : The Natural Rate of Unemployment 25
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Contoh : probabilitas lose jobs 0, 01 dan probabilitas find jobs 0, 1 ; maka unemployment rate = 26
The Steady-State Rate of Unemployment Joseph Ritter : Labor Market Dynamics 1. 8 Million Employed 119. 2 Million Unemployed 8. 9 Million 2. 0 Million 3. 2 Million 1. 7 Million 1. 5 Million 3. 0 Million Out of Labor Force 65. 2 Million 27
The Wage Offer Distribution 28
The Wage Offer Distribution Asumsi : TK akan selalu mencari perkerjaan yang lebih baik. The wage offer distribution menggambarkan distribusi frekuensi dari berbagai kesempatan kerja untuk unemployed worker di labor market. 29
The Wage Offer Distribution Trade off : semakin lama mencari pekerjaan yang lebih baik, semakin besar kesempatan mendapat gaji lebih tinggi dan semakin besar biaya mencari kerja. 30
Frequency The Wage Offer Distribution Kesempatan mendapat perkerjaan lebih besar Wage $ 5000 $8000 $ 22000 $ 25000 31
The Asking Wage 32
The Asking Wage • Tingkat upah yang menentukan unemployed worker untuk menerima atau menolak tawaran kerja. • Asking wage yang rendah menyebabkan cepat mendapatkan kerja, demikian sebaliknya. 33
The Asking Wage • Marginal Cost (MC) semakin tinggi karena merupakan perpaduan antara direct cost (misal : transportasi) dan opportunity cost karena berpindah firm. • Marginal Revenue merupakan marginal gain dari better job. 34
The Determination of The Asking Wage Dollars MR > MC MC MR < MC Asking Wage MR $10 $ 20 Wage offer at hand 35
The Wage Curve 36
The Wage Curve Blanchflower & Oswald : semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah 37
. . . Semakin tinggi unemployment rate maka upah cenderung semakin rendah karena. . . ? ? Wage A WA B WB UA UB Unemployment Rate 38
The Phillips Curve 39
The Phillips Curve Diperkenalkan : W. H. Phillips (1958) tentang negative correlation antara tingkat inflasi dan tingkat penganguran di Inggris periode 1861 -1957 40
The Phillips Curve Expansionary Policy Labor sadar upahsehingga tidak cukup inflasi naik dan sehingga asking wage dan pengangguran turun. . pengangguran kembali ke posisi Long phillips Perekonomian konstancurve semula namun inflasirun tetap. . . Inflasi sehingga asking wage konstan B 7 C A 0 3 5 Unemployment Rate 41
The Phillips Curve (USA) 42
Terima kasih. . . 43
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