UNCLASSIFIED MAINTAINING OVERMATCH THE FUTURE OF COMBAT VEHICLE

UNCLASSIFIED “MAINTAINING OVERMATCH: THE FUTURE OF COMBAT VEHICLE ARSTAF Day at the MODERNIZATION” Pre-Command Course LTG H. R. G-8 Mc. Master Army Hot Topic Symposium. III LTG AUSA James O. Barclay 1 November 2016 03 December 2013

Some Say the Army Should NOT Upgrade or Develop New Combat Vehicles “Existing Platforms are Sufficient for Future Armed Conflict” “Future Conflicts will not Require Combat Vehicles due to Long-Range Strike Capabilities” “Combat Vehicles have a Limited Role in Urban Combat and Restrictive Terrain” “New Combat Vehicles are too Expensive and take too long to Design and Produce” Victory Starts Here! 2

Peer Competitors have Modernized “The convergence of dramatic improvements in the fields of robotics, artificial intelligence, materials, additive manufacturing, and nanoenergetics is dramatically changing the character of conflict in all domains. ” – T. X. Hammes, “Cheap Technology Will Challenge U. S. Tactical Dominance, ” March 2016 Victory Starts Here! 3

Enemy Countermeasures Challenge Long-Range Strike Capabilities “U. S. dominance on land, sea, and air incentivized adversaries to fight in other ways…just as we seek to fight from a position of advantage so too will our enemies by employing asymmetric, hybrid, and unconventional approaches. ” – The Ellis Group “ 21 st Century Maneuver Warfare: Absorbing the Lessons, ” November 2016 Victory Starts Here! 4

The Army Operates in Restrictive Terrain to Achieve Strategic Outcomes Hurtgen Forest 1944 Iraq 2007 “The successes of Israeli armor and mechanized forces in 2002 demonstrated that the protection, firepower, and psychological effect of armor in a city remained a great advantage. ” – Louis Di. Marco “Concrete Hell: Urban Warfare from Stalingrad to Iraq, ” 2012 Victory Starts Here! 5

Increasing Risk “Continued failure to fund modernization will leave the United States with an Army unsuited to handle the future geostrategic environment. ” – Rhys Mc. Cormick, “The Army Modernization Challenge: A Historical Perspective, ” March 2016 Victory Starts Here! 6

Combat Vehicles are Essential Today and in the Future Ø Contested Domains Ø Increased Battlefield Lethality Ø Complex Terrain Ø Degraded Operations “Main battle tanks remain decisive in modern combat if equipped to defeat anti-tank guided missiles and infantry handheld anti-tank rockets. ” – Phillip Karber and Joshua Thibeault, “Russia’s New Generation Warfare, ” May 2016 Victory Starts Here! 7

UNCLASSIFIED “MAINTAINING OVERMATCH: THE FUTURE OF COMBAT VEHICLE ARSTAF Day at the MODERNIZATION” Pre-Command Course LTG H. R. G-8 Mc. Master Army LTG AUSA James O. Barclay III Hot Topic Symposium 1 November 2016 03 December 2013

U. S. Main Battle Tank Development Victory Starts Here! 9

Russian Main Battle Tank Development Victory Starts Here! 10

Means: Required for Tomorrow Formations possess the appropriate combination of mobility, protection and lethality to win and achieve overmatch against likely threat, under anticipated mission variables IBCT SBCT Mobility Protection Need a light solution that moves squad faster than threat Need depth and security operations to provide formation protection Mobility Protection Lethality Need mobile, protected, precise firepower Lethality Need ability to defeat man Need precise firepower to Need upgrade to gain kill infantry, ATGMs and mobility lost to underbelly -portable rockets and vehicles at range missiles. protection ABCT Mobility Need complete formation mobility. Protection Lethality Need Sufficient protection Need autonomy and against threat spectrum foradvanced solutions to all vehicles. provide new capability Priorities § Tactical Mobility (near) § Light recon and security capability (mid) § Mobile protected firepower (mid/far) § Protection and power upgrades (near) § Lethality upgrades missile, cannon (mid) § Mobile protected firepower (mid/far) § Replace obsolete vehicles (near) § Future Fighting Vehicle(mid) § Future tank / autonomous capabilities (far) NGCV Residual Risk Bold = Priority Effort Victory Starts Here! 11

Multi-Domain Battle: Achieving Cross-Domain Synergy Maneuver to positions of relative advantage and project power across all domains to ensure freedom of action. Integrate joint, interorganizational, and multinational capabilities to create windows of domain superiority and preserve Joint Force freedom of maneuver. Exploit temporary. X domain superiority by synchronizing cross-domain fire and maneuver to achieve physical, temporal, positional, and psychological advantages. SPACE MARITIME USMC CAS/AI AIR UAS EMS Recon SOF Electronic Warfare LAND SOF Guerrilla SOF CYBERSPACE “In an era of air and maritime warfare that seems increasingly likely to be dominated by long-range sensors and precision strikes, ground forces [provide the Joint Force] key attributes of resilience, persistence, and sustainability. ” - Beyond Coast Artillery: Cross-Domain Denial and the Army, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Victory Starts Here! As of 23 SEP 2016 12