UNCLASSIFIED Headquarters U S Air Force Integrity Service

UNCLASSIFIED Headquarters U. S. Air Force Integrity - Service - Excellence 14 WS (USAF) Capabilities Lt Col Robert Branham Chief of Climate Plans, Weather Strategic Plans and Interagency Integration Division HQ Air Force, Director of Weather February 2018

UNCLASSIFIED Overview n 14 WS Background n Climate Services Continuum n Historical Observations (Applied Climatology) n Climate Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (CMAP) n Questions Integrity - Service - Excellence 2

UNCLASSIFIED 14 WS Background Integrity - Service - Excellence 3

UNCLASSIFIED Why Asheville? Asheville Climate Services Entities n n n National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) n Consolidated nat’l centers of climate (former ‘NCDC’), geophysical, and oceanographic data Cooperative Institute for Climate And Satellites (CICS) n Nat’l consortium of academic, non-profit, and community org’s focused on impacts n 35 experts including advisor to 14 WS on tropical climate initiatives The Collider n Non-profit chartered to accelerate climate resilience by connecting scientist and users n Component of Army War College (AWC) Climate Impact on Nat’l Security initiative Association of State Climatologists n Organization of climatologists for each state; standardizes data and methods n HQ at the Collider in downtown Asheville; current executive director is former 14 WS/CC National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) n Arm of UNC-Asheville focused on science communication, decision tools and apps n Operates out of offices at the Collider in downtown Asheville n Developed gov’t-funded Climate Explorer and Climate Resilience Toolkit Integrity - Service - Excellence 4

UNCLASSIFIED Climate Services Continuum Climate services encompass more than static “climatology” and span the past, present, and future climate system… Applied Climatology Climate Monitoring Climate Prediction/Projection Long-standing 14 WS Mission Mature Partnerships Growth Area Maturing Partnerships Growth Area Energizing Partnerships Historical Climate Weather Trends vs. History Monthly Seasonal Future Climate Decadal Integrity - Service - Excellence 50+ yrs 5

UNCLASSIFIED Historical Observations (Applied Climatology) 3 -Month Daily Archive Trends ---- Surface (M) ---- Aircraft (M) ---- Upper Air (K) n Surface Observations n n n Land surface networks, synoptic ship, buoys Over 70 K sites; records as far back as 1901 2012: ~ 200 K obs/day 2017: ~ 1. 3 M obs/day Aircraft Observations n Hurricane reconnaissance (+) n Winter storms (-) commercial flights n Upper Air Observations n # sites nearly stationary n High-density obs (+) increase volume Integrity - Service - Excellence 6

UNCLASSIFIED Climate Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (CMAP) n State of the Climate assessments n Seasonal climate forecasts (temperature and precipitation anomalies) Integrity - Service - Excellence

UNCLASSIFIED AF’s Current CMAP Product Suite Temperature & Precipitation Monitoring Integrity - Service - Excellence

UNCLASSIFIED AF’s Current CMAP Product Suite Global Drought Monitoring & Prediction n Global Drought (Monitor) Forecast n n n Uses Standardized Precip Index (SPI) Same thresholds as US Nat’l Drought Monitor Agricultural drought (9 -month period) Long-term Water Security (24 -month period) Forecast applies seasonal fcst & climo to monitor In Oct ‘ 14 Sao Paulo reservoir “ 100 days from running out” Valid for Sep 2015 Sao Paulo Drought expected to worsen I n thru t e g r. Summer i t y - S e‘ 15 rvice - Excellence

UNCLASSIFIED AF’s Current CMAP Product Suite Location-specific Temp & Precip Trends Near Kathmandu, Nepal 22% above average Precip Apply (Sub-) Seasonal Prediction Where skillful NOTE: This point just Northwest of Kathmandu is currently 22% above normal for Integrity - Service - Excellence precip. The large geographical variations of Nepal also induce large variations in

UNCLASSIFIED AF’s Current CMAP Product Suite Disaster Relief (DR): Nepal Earthquake n n S. A. MONSOON NEPAL Operation SAHAYOGI HAAT n Fed climate data/products to JTF, NGA, PACOM JIOC, and more n Informed pre-deploy prep & Intel for 300 US troops & $1. 2 B in mil acft providing relief 480+ tons of aid 14 WS Products Requested n Latest Temp/Precip trend products n Created 3 new climate summaries n 250% surge in GIS cloud climo use n Generated monsoon outlook n As of 19 May, delayed onset from avg (12 Jun) and Below Normal precip anticipated n Flooding/landslide risks still high due to monsoon un 15 J INDIA un 1 J 20 M ay Integrity - Service - Excellence

UNCLASSIFIED AF’s Current CMAP Product Suite Seasonal Long-Range Outlooks (LROs) n n n Compares climatology to seasonal model 1 - to 6 -month climate prediction for 12 regions Skill mask applied Short description of expected conditions Derived impacts noted for Do. D & IC awareness Looking at going to monthly output versus seasonal Integrity - Service - Excellence

UNCLASSIFIED AF’s Current CMAP Product Suite Seasonal Long-Range Outlooks (LROs) Topic of the Arctic is “heating up” I n t e g prediction r i t y - S e r v i requested c e - E x c e l l by e n c. NORTHCOM e Arctic seasonal

UNCLASSIFIED HQ/USAF Directorate of Weather AF/A 3 W Contact: Lt Col Rob Branham (571) 256 -8077 robert. g. branham. mil@mail. mil AFW…Supporting Joint Warfighters… 24 x 7! Integrity - Service - Excellence 16