UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 4 The Emerging Operational

UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 4 The Emerging Operational Environment (OE) What’s in this Lesson 1. Learning Objectives 2. Lesson intent 3. Reading Assignment 4. Warm up by watching the OE video 5. Strategic and Operational Environments Defined 6. Exploring PMESII-PT to characterize the OE 7. Practice-how do you look at your OE? 8. Writing Assignment 9. Quiz Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 1

UNCLASSIFIED Learning Objectives By the end of this lesson, you will be expected to: • Describe the Army approach to characterize the OE. • Describe the PMESII-PT framework • Discuss the TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative and other efforts to enable broader engagement in problem solving • Discuss OE trends: past, present and emerging. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 2

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson Intent • Introduce students to the concept of the OE • Provide students with a basic understanding of how and why it is generated for Army training, education and leader development. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 3

UNCLASSIFIED Reading Assignment • TC 7 -102: The Operational Environment and Army Learning https: //armypubs. army. mil/epubs/DR_a/pdf/ web/tc 7_102. pdf. Chapter 1. • The OE and the Changing Character of Future Warfare. (PDF) • TRADOC G-2 OE Overview https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=RRUcx_My. TOc Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 4

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Warm Up! Watch this video clip -can you add any ideas to this vision of the emerging OE as part of the peer review process? TRADOC G-2 OE Overview https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=RRUcx_My. TOc Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 5

UNCLASSIFIED Strategic and Operational Environments Defined Strategic environment: a set of general conditions, circumstances and influences throughout the world that can affect military operations. (Global environment in which the president employs all the instruments of national power (Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economic)) Operational environment: a composite of conditions, circumstances and influences that affect the employment of capabilities and bear on the decisions of the commander. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 6

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Introduction to PMESII-PT • • OEs are constantly changing It is the interaction of variables that characterizes the OE The framework of OE analysis, which helps to generate understanding is based upon 8 variables (PMESII-PT) The next few slides will describe these variables Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 7

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Political Variable Credit: Wikipedia Political variable is the distribution of responsibility of power at all levels of governance-both formal and covert Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 8

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Military Variable Political variable explores the military and paramilitary capabilities of all relevant actors (enemy, friendly, and neutral) in a selected OE. Analysis includes organizational structure and equipment holdings for capabilities and limitations. https: //www. armyupress. army. mil/Portals/7/Hot%20 Spots/Documents/Russia/2017 -07 -The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles. pdf Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 9

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Economic Variable The economic variable encompasses individual and group behaviors related to producing, distributing and consuming resources across an OE. The variable explores how external influences impact the area of interest and include legitimate, black market and gray market activities https: //www. economist. com/china/2020/07/01/hong-kong-begins-lifeunder-a-new-chinese-national-security-law Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 10

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Social Variable The social variable describes the cultural, religious and ethnic composition within an OE. Analysis would explore beliefs, values, customs, and behaviors of society members. Do not discount the importance of the social variable. https: //techcrunch. com/2014/04/12/culture-eats-strategy-for-breakfast/ Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 11

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Information Variable The information variable depicts the nature, scope and effects of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate or act on information. It includes formal and informal means of communication. https: //www. jcs. mil/Portals/36/Documents/D octrine/concepts/joint_concepts_jcoie. pdf? ve r=2018 -08 -01 -142119 -830 The JCOIE recognizes that Individuals and groups today have access to more information than entire governments once possessed. They can swiftly organize and act on what they learn, sometimes leading to violent change. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 12

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Infrastructure Variable The infrastructure variable portrays basic facilities, services and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society. https: //eiuperspectives. economist. com/infrastructure-cities/investing-african-infrastructure Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 13

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Physical Terrain Credit: Brittanica Geography and man-made structures are considered. Weather and potential natural disasters are often considered under this variable. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 14

UNCLASSIFIED Characterizing the OE Time ADP 5 -0 The Operations Process Time describes durations of critical activities and events and also how time is perceived from a socio-cultural perspective of critical actors. For the Army, time is a scarce resource. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 15

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” For me, I want to ask the question “What will the Critical Thinking Enterprise (CTE) look like in 2030? ” I will start thinking about the PMESII-PT variables. What were they like 20 years ago? How are they changing? What are the drivers of these changes for each of the variables? Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED Motto for the CTE: intellectual Firestarter for TRADOC. WILL THIS STILL BE THE MOTTO IN 2030? 16

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” For each of you, pick a question and start to think about how all the variables will unfold over the next ten years (the sweet spot for Future Hunters-remember? ) IF YOU CAN’T COME UP WITH A QUESTION, HERE A FEW THAT ARE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR THE ARMY: • • • Victory Starts Here! What will JROTC be like in 2030? What will Cadets be like in 2030? What will it mean to get a High School education in 2030? What will at mean to get a University Education in 2030? What will the Army look like in 2030? UNCLASSIFIED 17

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” KEY POINTS • Remember that there are many OEs. • When thinking about ”your OE”, it is important to consider all of the variables …. • But…remember that the OE is a composite* of conditions, circumstances and influences … Plasan Sandcat composite armored vehicle *A composite is a substance that is stronger because it is made up of two or more separate materials that, when combined, produce a material with characteristics different from the individual components. Composite armour is a type of vehicle armour consisting of layers of different material such as metals, plastics, ceramics or air. Credit Wikipedia. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 18

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” KEY POINTS • Therefore…we must look at how all of the variables weave together (converge and diverge) in creating your OE. Divergent is a movie about a future world where people are divided into sectors based upon one distinct quality (one variable). But what happens when people are good at more than one thing (complex, many variables at once)…. watch the movie to find out!!! …https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=sutg. Wjz 10 s. M Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED https: //en. wikipedia. org/w/index. php? curid=43122865 19

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” KEY POINTS • The cone of plausibility-as we move further and further from the present we can imagine a range of probable, preferable, and plausible futures. We’ll talk more about this in future lessons. Credit: Prescient 2050. com Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 20

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” https: //www. shell. com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/what -are-scenarios. html KEY POINTS • The best way to blend all of the variables and describe your OE is to tell a story-create a scenario. • This is done in industry (Shell Oil, eg. ) and it is done in the Army (Mad Scientist) and in numerous other governmental organizations Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 21

UNCLASSIFIED Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE” KEY POINTS • Common to both industry and the Army is the power of peer review, broader engagement in problem solving. • This is done to prevent strategic surprise…uncovering multiple perspectives of the future • The National Intelligence Council and NATO also practice strategic foresight and they involve a wide range of people from many different perspectives Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 22

UNCLASSIFIED Writing Assignment Pick one variable of the operational environment and discuss how it has changed in ”your OE” and how you think it might play out into 2030. Think about how it might impact (converge) with the other variables of the OE. Write a 1 -3 page paper about the significance of this variable to you, and perhaps even the Army!!! Post your work on both APAN and Cadet Portfolio. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 23

UNCLASSIFIED Quiz https: //docs. google. com/forms/d/e/1 FAIp QLSd. EAm. IFPZVYm. Bef. Bf 9 g. PK 5 H 0 Si 4 s. D 3 t. Ttl. YA 08 d. S_Q 6 BUl. A/viewform? usp=sf_link Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 24