UNCLASSIFIED ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome What

UNCLASSIFIED ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome What are National Security Threats? 2 nd Annual JTAC Workshop 4 April 2006 Richard Gullickson, Director, ASCO Richard. gullickson@dtra. mil Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20 UNCLASSIFIED

Message • National strategy focuses on understanding adversaries • Threat Anticipation emphasized in QDR • Adversary “deterrence calculus” key element of STRATCOM strategy deterrence assessment process • TAP makes important contribution to DTRA Campaign 6: Global Situational Awareness • Importance of international partnership with Australia Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20

National Policy Shapes ASCO Portfolio • Policy themes: Ø Prevention: Anticipate threats • Know your adversary • Cultural and social network understanding • Deterring terrorism Ø Nuclear proliferation • Nuclear terrorism • Cooperative interdiction Ø Disruptive technologies • Technical surprise • Advanced bio threat • Knowledge transformation Ø Expanded Do. D roles • Enabling HD/HS Low now, but rapidly increasing

DTRA is a Combat Support Agency Focused on Combating WMD National Strategy Nonproliferation Counterproliferation Consequence Management QDR Emphasis: Proliferation Prevention CWC BWC Stopped by Threat Control & Threat Reduction Stopped by Deterrence Stopped by Interdiction Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20 Stopped by Counterforce & Elimination Stopped by Active Defense Stopped by Passive Defense Consequence Management Restoration Operations

Threat Anticipation Supports Global Situational Awareness USD(AT& L) JCS Threat Reduction Advisory Committee OSD-P DDR&E ATSD(NCB) STRAT DIRECTOR ASCO BOD Advanced Systems & Concepts Office Deputy Director STRATCOM Center For Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction Business Excellence Do. D Center for Global WMD Situational Awareness Operations R&D Control WMD Materials and Systems Worldwide Remove WMD threat to the warfighter Protect the Homeland Against Catastrophic WMD threats Deterrence Transformation Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20

ASCO Projects Have Long Term Strategic Impact Threat Anticipation UNM Iraqi Virtual Science Library Iranian WMD Homeland Defense 2008 2015 -2025 Resources SARS Quarantine Table Top Exercise Strategic Deterrence Strategic Crisis Management Risk Management In New Strategic Framework Time Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20 University Strategic Partnership Impact of Future Technology Future WMD Future Military Conflict

New Directions in Threat Anticipation Objective • Understand anticipate adversary behavior, motivations, world views Elements • Integrate computational and social sciences • 2 prototype models: one traditional agent-based, and one using a novel approach • Joint Threat Anticipation Center at UC, ANL • Verification and validation Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20 Results • Analyzed Al Qaeda's decision making strategy post-Iraq War • Identified soft US mideast sites as their primary goals prior to May attacks • Agent-based model supports Joint Staff • Assessment of Indonesian stability with Australian, PACOM collaboration

University Strategic Partnership Solving DTRA Problems Strategic Partnership Innovative Research Initiative in CWMD He 2* Metastable Cluster Student Research Associate Program Florida A&M NC A&T Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20 University of New Mexico

Summary • Threat anticipation is key element of national strategy • Substantial emphasis on verification and validation • Importance of partnerships Ø Australia Ø University strategic partnership Advanced Systems and Concepts Office 15 -Sep-20