Uncertain 2 Degrees J Baehr I Hense L
Uncertain 2 Degrees J. Baehr, I. Hense, L. Kutzbach, S. Rödder, M. Scheffold, J. Scheffran (& J. Behrens and M. Brüggemann on leave) Guest lecturer: Jörn Behrens Course coordination: Lars Kutzbach, Simone Rödder, Maike Scheffold Contact for all inquiries: Maike Scheffold (maike. scheffold@uni-hamburg. de)
Today’s Schedule Introduction to uncertainty Motivation and course question Student discussion on uncertainty (rocket format) What is uncertainty? (Jörn Behrens with input from all lecturers) Introduction to the course idea of the course learning outcomes structure and overall schedule formalities: grading / exam the course blog Homework
Introduction to Uncertainty
Historical context New environmental paradigm in the second half of the 20 th century: Protect nature from society (not society from nature) but for the sake of protecting society from unprotected changing nature. Interest: What will happen? Future climate change became a scientific and also a public & policy topic Source: https: //www. riverforestlibrary. org/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/Climate-Change-1024 x 661. png
The advent and relevance of predictions IPCC-AR 5, Fig. 12. 5
The advent and relevance of predictions Questions that this graph triggers include: • • When and why did scientists start to work on predictions? Who did start to trust in predictions? How was prediction instutionalised? How did graphs, numbers, predictions acquire their social, epistemic and political authority? What is the social role of predictions? And what role does uncertainty play in that? How does it get domesticated in climate sciences, climate communication, and climate policy? And how do climate targets such as the 2 degree limit come in?
The advent and relevance of predictions Questions that this graph triggers include: • • When and why did scientists start to work on predictions? Who did start to trust in predictions? How was prediction instutionalised? How did graphs, numbers, predictions acquire their social, epistemic and political authority? What is the social role of predictions? And what role does uncertainty play in that? How does it get domesticated in climate sciences, climate communication, and climate policy? And how do climate targets such as the 2 degree limit come in?
Course question Which role do uncertainties play in (scientific-public-policy…) debates about the „ 2 -degree-limit“? Understandings of Uncertainty!?
Student discussion on uncertainty (Rocket format) Questions: a. „What does uncertainty mean to you? “ b. „In which situations do you experience uncertainty? “ c. “Is there a difference between uncertainty in every-day life and in academic life, in research? ” Procedure: 1. Think about the questions individually and take notes (5 min). 2. Build small groups of 3 -4, discuss and synthesise your ideas (up to 10 min). 3. Each group presents their ideas in class (up to 15 min).
What is uncertainty? Jörn Behrens with input from all lecturers
Introduction to the Course
Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future “The real problem is: If we choose to wait for more certainty before actions are initiated, then can our models be improved in time to prevent an irreversible drift toward a future calamity? (…) This dilemma rests, metaphorically, in our need to gaze into a very dirty crystal ball; but the tough judgment to be made here is precisely how long we should clean the glass before acting on what we believe we see inside. ” (Schneider 1976, p. 149)
Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future “Frustrated with what appeared to be an activist spirit motivating socially-aware scientists like Schneider, Landsberg believed that scientists who studied the climate should stay out of the spotlight given what he considered to be a myriad of scientific uncertainties about the causes of climatic change. Concerned about the credibility of climatology as a professional discipline given his own role in its maturation since the 1940 s, Landsberg cast considerable doubt on the validity of relying on computer-based models to inform policy makers and the general public. Unless one could adequately quantify the scientific uncertainties that underlay scientific claims based on models, he believed that reticence was the only appropriate course of action until such uncertainties could be identified and resolved. Staying behind closed doors, cautiously hedging one’s claims by quantifying and emphasizing scientific uncertainty, and diligently collecting and analyzing data to resolve such uncertainties were hallmark characteristics of what he envisioned to be a professional atmospheric scientist. ” (Henderson 2014 , p. 54)
The perspective of a climate scientist “On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. ” Schneider, S. H. , Discover Magazine, pp. 45– 48, October 1989 Describe the “scientist-human being”–issue in analytical terms!
Role conflict : = conflicting or competing demands associated with a role 1. Inter role conflict occurs if a person in order to perform one role well must violate another important role. Example: “Scientist-activist” 1. Intra role conflict occurs if a person in order to live up to one role expectations must violate another important role expectations because these demand are competing (e. g. for time) or even conflicting. Example: “Researcher-Fund Raiser”. Merton 1957
Role-play as didactical method • Social Role : = set of social expectations that people direct to a person • Modern society: The person doesn’t matter, it is the role that matters. • Role behavior encompasses aspects of a person’s behavior • Corollary 1: Individuals can change their roles, they have multiple roles. • Corollary 2: Roles can change their performers. (Exceptions: family roles) • Corollary 3: The concept of social role permits comparison of individuals in a particular social role. Roles are schemes of social fantasy that trigger questions such as ““why is this scientist much more cautious with his predictions that her colleague? ”, “why can this politician not act upon the knowledge that scientists provide as politicians in country xy do? ”; “why is this climate journalist not as knowledgeable as his colleague? ”
Course question Which role do uncertainties play in (scientific-public-policy…) debates about the „ 2 -degree-limit“?
Overview 03. 04. First discussions on uncertainty and introduction to the course & concept 10. 04. Uncertainties relevant for the discussion of the 2 -degree target (Lars Kutzbach) 17. 04. Uncertainty in natural sciences: measurements (Lars Kutzbach) What is role-playing all about? (Maike Scheffold) 24. 04. Uncertainty in natural sciences: physical models (Johanna Baehr) 08. 05. Uncertainty in natural sciences: biological perspective (Inga Hense) 15. 05. Uncertainty and society (Simone Rödder) 22. 05 Decisionmaking under uncertainty: climate governance (Stefan Aykut) 29. 05. Uncertainty and risk (Jürgen Scheffran) 05. 06. Communication of climate change uncertainty (Michael Brüggemann) 19. 06. Role-play on communicative uncertainty and preparation of panel discussion 26. 06. Panel discussion 04. 07. Feedback on Essay questions (speed-dating format) 11. 07. Uncertain and now? Feedback and Conclusion
Learning objectives Upon completion of the course you should be able to: 1. reproduce the emergence of uncertainties in the context of climate research, climate communication and climate policy and the perspectives of the different actors involved (role-play) 2. understand the rationale behind different approaches to uncertainty 3. develop and reflect upon alternative options for coping with ‘uncertainty’
Learning outcomes Knowledge During the class, you will 1. be introduced to theories, methods, results and debates from different disciplinary and other perspectives 2. gain a basic understanding of development and propagation of uncertainties in the climate context 3. understand the historical context of the ‘ 2 -degree-limit’ and its policy role
Learning outcomes Skills Due to your interactive participation, you will 1. gain empathy, reflection and discussion skills (also on controversial questions) 2. engage in self-organised, self-responsible and creative work as individuals or in teams 3. document the processes, progresses and results of your study and learning 4. work with scientific texts and studies and present, discuss and write (blog) about your insights
Assignment 1. 2. 3. Requirements to pass the course: a. 80% attendance (only two classes can be missed) b. active participation in class discussion; submission of homework assignments, including at least two individual blog entries (one post and one comment) c. speaker of the role-group in the discussion for at least one time d. participation in the joint organisation of the panel discussion in lectures 5 & 10 e. an essay to be written post the class (individual question related to course question) The grade will be based on the essay (max. 5 pages, to be submitted by August 15 th; late submission results in. 1 deduction/day). The total grade is the grade of your essay +/- 1. 0 depending on your blog entries and your overall participation in class. The course counts towards the module 2. 1. The grade will be determined by averaging the paleo-course by Claussen & Kleinen and this course. More detailed information on the requirements (role-plays, blog and essay) will be given in advance to the respective tasks.
The course blog We have a virtual study and discussion space. The blog work space will be used to: 1. o o o 2. o o 3. o o 4. Provide you with all information on Course idea and structure The blog is your arena of Rules and procedures expression and documentation. Homework and lecture slides Here, you find all relevant Blog about information. Please make sure Ideas and toughts that you check-out and work Your experiences with your role-plays with the blog on a regular basis. Document The arguments of the discussions The perspective ouf your respective role Inform interested parties about our work (later in the year) The blog is currently partly public. You can only enter the blog with invitation. The blog is still work in progress! (be gentle on us ; ) )
The course blog Let‘s explore our blog: https: //uncertain 2 degrees. blogs. uni-hamburg. de/ Important: 1. Registration 2. Material 2019 3. Course Information 4. How to…
Homework # 1 Get to know the blog, its features and go through all information given on the course. Therefore, 1. Fill in your university email address, your name and your username in the list provided at the end of the lecture. Set your username as follows: Lisa Baume lisbau (the first 3 letters of your first and 3 of your second name) Manfred Arm manarm We will send you an invitation to that email address within the next day. 1. Accept the invitation to the blog (click on the Invitation Accepted link). 2. Create a new Word. Press-account with the username you set before in the list. If this username is not working, please try a different version, e. g. lisbau 2018. If you run into any problems or changed the username, please contact Maike ril Scheffold (maike. scheffold@uni-hamburg. de. 9 th Ap Due:
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