Uncertain 2 Degrees J Baehr I Hense L
Uncertain 2 Degrees J. Baehr, I. Hense, L. Kutzbach, S. Rödder, M. Scheffold, J. Scheffran 10. 7. 2019 Moderated by Simone Rödder Course coordination: Lars Kutzbach, Simone Rödder, Maike Scheffold Contact for all inquiries: Maike Scheffold (maike. scheffold@uni-hamburg. de)
Today's Schedule Reflection on Panel Discussion Reflection on Course: Feedback, personal summary and outlook Final Assignment: Essay – Task and Guidelines (reminder) Student evaluation
Reflection on Panel Discussion
Panel Discussion Feedback: Moderation - Were questions relevant? Were they enough controversial? Was there a homogenous flow between questions/topics? Were moderators confident and clear? Was the panel interactive? Did moderators have good time management? Panelists - Were the invited panelists a good fit for the discussion? - Was there an interaction between panelists? - What did you think about their respective positions? In your opinion, how well were they argued for?
Panel Discussion Feedback: Housekeeping & Catering - Did you like the design of the poster? Did you like the setup of the seminar room (light/sound/chairs/etc)? Was the Catering well-organised? Did you enjoy the food? - General Did you learn something new from the discussion? Post-panel gathering: Was it a good networking opportunity for you? What‘s your overall feedback/impression of the day? Did you miss the issue of uncertainty…. ?
Course question Which role do uncertainties play in (scientific-public-policy…) debates about the „ 2 -degree-limit“?
The advent and relevance of predictions IPCC-AR 5, Fig. 12. 5
The advent and relevance of predictions Questions that this graph triggers include: • • When and why did scientists start to work on predictions? Who did start to trust in predictions? How was prediction instutionalised? How did graphs, numbers, predictions acquire their social, epistemic and political authority? What is the social role of predictions? And what role does uncertainty play in that? How does it get domesticated in climate sciences, climate communication, and climate policy? And how do climate targets such as the 2 degree limit come in?
Reflection on the Course
What did you like the most? 1. Panel discussion 2. Roleplays, preparing in groups for the roleplays, interesting discussions 3. Discussions among lecturers, organisation of PD 4. Reading material, diversity of topics, lecturers, speed-dating Dynamics between students, learning trough asking questions and simulation, taking responsibility, fruitful to get feedback, organising was a highlight, different viewpoints of diverse lecturers, blog posts
Did you encounter any changes of your perspective on uncertainty? I believe so […], the course is asking questions more than providing answers, which is key if you want to learn about a topic such as uncertainty and how its encountered differently in climate research. I had a similar thoughts on uncertainties before the class began. The course definitely made clear how important uncertainty and giving an uncertainty quantification is. The course helped me to improve my understandings of uncertainty, I learned more about the specific definitions (aleatoric, . epistemic). The role plays really help to get a view on uncertainty from different perspectives. I also understand why they are challenging to express to climate sceptics. I do tend to consider uncertainty from more perspectives […]. That may help to deal with climate communication in the future.
Do you understand other perspectives better now? To an extent yes, Having the chance to role-play certain roles gave me a better perspective and respect to what each proffesion have to deal with when it comes to uncertainities […]. Climate change is a topic that should not be monopolized only by scientists, but should expand to include different stakeholders […]. I’ve taken the lectures from all of the professors beforehand so I had the general idea on uncertainties for every field we covered during the class. I think I do, and the role plays had a big impact on that. Yes, better than before but I wouldn't say I completely understand their perspective yet. Yes.
What could be improved? And how? Role-play (lacking focus, too • Instructions to form direction of discussion many degrees of freedom, • Limiting roles and new roles linkage lecture role play) • Better moderation • Come up with a written or oral resolution at the end of each role-play Blogging should not be mandatory • Use the blog as a forum for role-plays Better preparation for upcoming lecture • providing the lecture slides a few days in advance and also by giving us some material to read and prepare Organisation of panel event • more time to prepare the panel discussion during the course (lectures) • feeling that only a few people helped and actively participated. It would be nice to split the tasks in a better way
Personal summary and outlook (rocket format) 1. Find one adjective to describe the course? 2. What is your key insight of the course? 3. What question remains for you to be answered/ what question would you like to deal with? [e. g. in an upcoming essay]
Essay August Due: 15 th A scientific essay on a self-refined question based on the question: "How does X (journalist, …) deal with uncertainty in relation to the "2 degree limit "? How could the handling be improved? “ or on a Individual question in the seminar context. Basic requirement: maximal two times of absence, at least two own blog entries and at least one time leading the role group in a role-play Formal requirements: • 3 pages plus title page, bibliography and appendix if applicable • font size: 11 pt and spacing between 1. 2 and 1. 5 • title page stating your name, an appropriate title, the course and the submission date • Bibliography/quotation: (Author YEAR)-quotation (Harvard-Style, APA-Style or e. g. Citavi-"Basis"-style)
Grading Evaluation criteria: 1. Content: (50%) 1. 1 Committed, creative and competent examination of questions and literature/sources 1. 2 Processing, summary and reference to what has been learned 1. 3 Own ideas/approaches 2. Reasoning and structure (30%) 2. 1 Coherent structure and reasoning, common thread 2. 2 Clear argumentation and position 2. 3 References to the 2 -degrees-limit and uncertainty established 3. Form and scientific character (20%) 3. 1 Scientific citation, handling of literature, formalities: layout and other design 3. 2 Comprehensible and correct language Total grade= grade (essay)+/-1. 0 (your seminar discussion and your blog posts)
Student Evaluation
Student evaluation (also on STINE for easy access) May we ask you to fill in 3 survey questionnaires at: https: //uhh. de/evasys For Lars Kutzbach: NGRDK or https: //evasys-online. unihamburg. de/evasys/online. php? pswd=NGRDK For Simone Rödder: TYQ 55 or https: //evasys-online. unihamburg. de/evasys/online. php? pswd=TYQ 55 For Maike Scheffold: MLRWP or https: //evasys-online. uni-hamburg. de/evasys/online. php? pswd=MLRWP
Historical context New environmental paradigm in the second half of the 20 th century: Protect nature from society (not society from nature) but for the sake of protecting society from unprotected changing nature. Interest: What will happen? Future climate change became a scientific and also a public & policy topic Source: https: //www. riverforestlibrary. org/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/Climate-Change-1024 x 661. png
The advent and relevance of predictions IPCC-AR 5, Fig. 12. 5
The advent and relevance of predictions Questions that this graph triggers include: • • When and why did scientists start to work on predictions? Who did start to trust in predictions? How was prediction instutionalised? How did graphs, numbers, predictions acquire their social, epistemic and political authority? What is the social role of predictions? And what role does uncertainty play in that? How does it get domesticated in climate sciences, climate communication, and climate policy? And how do climate targets such as the 2 degree limit come in?
Learning objectives Upon completion of the course you should be able to: 1. reproduce the emergence of uncertainties in the context of climate research, climate communication and climate policy and the perspectives of the different actors involved (role-play) 2. understand the rationale behind different approaches to uncertainty 3. develop and reflect upon alternative options for coping with ‘uncertainty’
Learning outcomes Knowledge During the class, you will 1. be introduced to theories, methods, results and debates from different disciplinary and other perspectives 2. gain a basic understanding of development and propagation of uncertainties in the climate context 3. understand the historical context of the ‘ 2 -degree-limit’ and its policy role
Learning outcomes Skills Due to your interactive participation, you will 1. gain empathy, reflection and discussion skills (also on controversial questions) 2. engage in self-organised, self-responsible and creative work as individuals or in teams 3. document the processes, progresses and results of your study and learning 4. work with scientific texts and studies and present, discuss and write (blog) about your insights
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