Ukrainian Crisis Views in NATO Russia and Ukraine

Ukrainian Crisis: Views in NATO, Russia and Ukraine Bruce Stokes Katie Simmons Director, Global Economic Attitudes Associate Director, Research

Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts • Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington • Survey topics: U. S. domestic politics and economic conditions, values, U. S. image abroad, global views toward major powers, terrorism, democracy, country conditions, aging, economy • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 82 countries, surveying in 40 nations in 2015 • www. pewresearch. org November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 2

Methodology • Surveys conducted across eight NATO member countries as well as Russia and Ukraine from April 6, 2015 to May 15, 2015 totaling 11, 116 respondents • Based on nationally representative telephone interviews in Canada, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom & the United States and face-to-face interviews in Italy, Poland, Russia & Ukraine conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The survey in Ukraine excludes Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea. • The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 2. 8% - ± 4. 1% November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 3

KEY TAKEAWAYS November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 4

European NATO Members Reluctant to Use Force to Defend If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO Allies ally, do you think our country should use military force to defend that country? 56% U. S. 53 Canada 48 EU median Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 5

Russians Express Growing Pride in Russia, Confidence in Putin in International Affairs 100% Start of unrest in Ukraine 63 A lot of confidence in Putin 51 53 42 66 52 47 46 29 Very favorable view of Russia 0 2007 November 25, 2020 2009 2011 www. pewresearch. org 2013 2015 6

Ukrainians Want Donbas to Remain Part of Ukraine; Russians Want It to Secede Thinking about the future of the Luhans’k and Donets’k regions, would you prefer that they … 11% 51% 21 Remain part of Ukraine on same terms as before crisis Remain part of Ukraine with greater autonomy from Kyiv 35 Become independent states 24 4 2 10 Become part of Russia 10 Don't know Ukraine Russia 33 Note: In Russia, question read “Thinking about the future of the self-declared republics of Luhans’k and Donets’k. . . ” November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 7

NATO VIEWS November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 8

Poland Most Worried about Russian Military Threat How much of a military threat, if at all, is Russia to its neighboring countries, aside from Ukraine? Major threat Minor threat Not a threat Poland 70% 53 UK France Germany November 25, 2020 8 38 44 10 34 38 15 48 U. S. Canada 7 40 49 Italy 4% 36 51 Spain 19% 59 44 www. pewresearch. org 13 33 42 4 8 9

Many NATO Members Oppose Supplying Ukraine with Arms Against In response to the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, do you __ NATO sending arms to the Russia Ukrainian gov’t? Oppose Poland 36% U. S. 50% 43 Canada 46 41 UK 44 45 France 42 59 Spain 66 Italy 65 German y Support 40 25 22 77 MEDIAN November 25, 2020 19 52 41 www. pewresearch. org 10

If Key NATO Countries Reluctant to Use Force to Defend Allies Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally, do you think our country should or should not use military force to defend that country? Should not U. S. 37% Canada 36 UK 37 Poland 49 48 48 53 Italy November 25, 2020 53 47 France MEDIAN 56% 34 Spain German y Should 47 51 40 58 38 42 48 www. pewresearch. org 11

U. S. -German Disagreement Over Ukraine U. S. Germany Diff % % Support for NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t 46 19 +27 Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO member 62 36 +26 Our country should use military force to defend NATO ally against Russia 56 38 +18 Decrease economic sanctions on Russia 10 29 -19 Support for Western countries providing economic aid to Ukraine 62 71 -9 November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 12

U. S. Partisan Divide on What to Do about Russia-Ukraine Democrats Republicans Diff % % U. S. should use military force to defend NATO ally against Russia 47 69 +22 Support for NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t 39 60 +21 Increase economic sanctions on Russia 23 40 +17 Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO member 59 71 +12 Russia is a major military threat to its neighbors 56 67 +11 Russia is to blame for violence in eastern Ukraine 39 50 +11 Support for Western countries providing economic aid to Ukraine 60 69 +9 November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 13

RUSSIAN VIEWS November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 14

Views of Russian Economy Souring How would you describe the current economic situation in Russia? 100% Bad 83 76 73 64 56 50 50 44 38 32 20 13 0 2002 November 25, 2020 2007 www. pewresearch. org 24 Good 2012 2015 15

Russians Blame Sanctions and Falling Oil Prices for Economic Woes Which one of the following is causing the most harm to our economy? 33% 33 Falling oil prices 25 Current gov't econ policies 8 November 25, 2020 Western sanctions None (VOL)/Don’t know www. pewresearch. org 16

Russians Overwhelmingly Support Putin’s Foreign and Domestic Policies Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Vladimir Putin is handling … Disapprove Relations w/ China 4% 85 13 Relations w/ Ukraine 83 11 Relations w/ EU 82 14 Energy policy 73 23 Economy November 25, 2020 90% 10 Relations w/ U. S. Corruption Approve 70 29 62 www. pewresearch. org 17

Russian Views of Western Powers Plummet Russian who have a favorable view of … November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 18

UKRAINIAN VIEWS November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 19

Surveying Ukraine in 2015 November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 20

Western Ukrainians Increasingly Critical of Kyiv government is a bad influence 2014 2015 Change % % Ukraine 42 59 +17 West 28 54 +26 East 59 65 +6 Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea. November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 21

Ukrainians Want Assistance from West Do you support or oppose __ for our country? Oppose Getting economic aid from Western countries Support 17% 71% 22 Joining the EU 67 Getting arms from NATO 32 54 Joining NATO 32 53 Joining the Eurasian Economic Union with Russia 72 12 Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea. November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 22

Eastern Ukrainians Favor Negotiations Over Military Force To end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which one of the following solutions do you think is best? Use military force 23% Ukraine 19% 31 West East Both/Neither (VOL) 13 Negotiate a settlement 47% 17 22 40 56 Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea. November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 23

All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www. pewresearch. org November 25, 2020 www. pewresearch. org 24