Ukraine through a Baltic Lense Operationalising links between

Ukraine through a Baltic Lense: Operationalising links between images, frames and narratives in IR Natalia Chaban, Donald Matheson, Linda Jean Kenix, with Sam Bret All of University of Canterbury, NZ

Region-specific (Baltic region) strategic narratives • 1) “return to Europe”; • 2) “EU-active and Euro-enthusiastic nations”; • 3) “experts in regional/security/Russia matters” • 4) “model/example” for post-Soviet states. In all these narratives Ukraine is a vantage point for self-narratives. We ask: • How Ukraine’s media representations relate to these four strategic narratives? • Does the nature of the news sources influences the frames and media ‘storylines’ of Ukraine and their relation to the narratives?

Media contexts

Theoretical Framework “In our heads” Characteristics of the mental image Theory by Hopmann 1996 psychology Representations Characteristics of the frame in media discourse Theory by Entman 2003 Communication studies STORYLINES – transition to narratives Characteristic of the image in IR discourse Theory by Herrmann 2013 IR Cognitive Image of Self (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) Image of Other (Ukraine) Image of Situation (about Ukraine exclusively, or Ukraine’s relations with a Baltic state, the EU, or the world) Evaluative (‘what is good, what is bad’) “European norms of peace, democracy, rule of law, good governance, human rights, solidarity, equality, sustainability Affective (emotions) Positive Negative mixed Visibility/magnitude Of Self Of Other Of situation Local resonance Of interactions between Self and Other Of norms of the Other vs. norms of Self Emotive charge Positive, negative, neutral or mixed portrayals of the Other and Self in relation to the Other Comparative matrix cognitive, emotive and evaluative self-images vis-à-vis cognitive, emotive and evaluative images assigned by Self to the Other Story of power/capability (strong or weak) Story of interest/opportunity (benefit or threat) Story of affinity/status (superior or inferior)

Method: Sample and News Sources Lithuania Estonia Latvia Delfi 28 Delfi 55 Delfi 85 15 min 32 Postimees 74 LSM 40 Lrytas 19 ERR TVnet 54 Total 79 84 213 179

Operationalisations Visibility Volume Degree of Centrality Situation (actors involved, the type of action in an issue-area, location of the action, a presence of the conflict, and if the conflict was reported a reference to resolution proposed and/or solution found) Three cognitive image elements – the Self, the Other and the situation – were accounted for. Emotive charge Local resonance A “local hook” upholds or violates a set of specific norms (NPE approach (Manners 2002): peace, democracy, rule of law, good governance, human rights, freedom/liberty, solidarity, equality and sustainability). the evaluative element within the image emotive indicators: positive, positive-to-neutral, neutral-to-negative, negative and mixed. the affective element of the image.

Findings: a continuum of frames Estonia Latvia • the most voluminous in coverage. • higher proportion of stories that portrayed Ukraine in a positive tone • higher use of a local hook • equal splitof the intensity of Ukraine’s representation. • • Lithuania • • Ukraine is more of a secondary or minor actor A more negative portrayal of Ukraine Public owned sources have a higher local hook Substantial volume Ukraine features more often as a major actor mixed evaluations of Ukraine a very low local hook Low volume

Findings: Political Issue-Area. IR (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 1 • Ukraine is presented as a victim of Russian aggression, aggression that hasn’t been stopped by anyone (weak capability) -- • Thus situation around it is framed to present a certain threat for Baltic states as they may be next in line for invasion (threat to the Baltics) -- • Ukraine is on the receiving end of Russian geopolitical ambitions, Ukraine is upholding the norm of peace (affinity, “like us”). • Offers support to Narrative 3 Baltic states are “experts” – “we know Russia, we warn Europe of Russia”

Findings: Political Issue-Area. Domestic (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 2: • Ukraine is collecting itself on its way to Europe/West (the EU and NATO goals are in its Constitution, Ukraine celebrates 5 th anniversary of Maidan, Ukraine has democratic elections) (growing strength/capability) – • It is an opportunity for the Baltics as Ukraine will be another NATO member in the region, another EU member in the region, another democratic state in the region (opportunity) -- • Ukraine is striving to be “a democratic Western nation, Ukraine is upholding the norm of democracy (affinity, “like us”). • Offers supports to Narrative 2 “Baltic States are Euro-Enthusiastic” – the choice/behaviour of Ukraine to achieve the same European/Western goals validates our Euro-aspirations.

Findings: Political Issue-Area. Domestic (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 3 • Ukraine is a corrupt country in need of reforms on rule of law and good governance (weak capability) – • Ukraine is presenting a threat to us reminding about old “Soviet”/ “non-European” ways of doing things and spreading influence of ‘bad’ norms on us (threat to us) – • Ukraine is violating the norm of rule of law (no affinity, “not like us”, we are superior). • Offers support to Narratives 1 and 4 – “we are now in Europe, we have different (better) norms” plus “Ukraine may use us as model/example how to fight corruption/bad governance, we have done it well”.

FINDINGS: Economic Issue-Area (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 4 • Ukraine is economically challenged (either due to illegal financial challenges or difficult politico-economic circumstances) (weak) – • It is presenting low level opportunities for the Baltic business or sometimes draws Baltic business into the orbit of financial crimes (no opportunity or even threat) – • Ukraine does not uphold liberal market norms and violates the norm of rule of law (no affinity, not like us). • Offers support to Narrative 1 “Baltic States returned to Europe where norms are different” while Ukraine is on the other side of the divide.

FINDINGS: Economic Issue-Area (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 5 • Ukraine may possess certain business skills/know how and promising markets (e. g. successful businesses/enterprises, growing tourism and transport hubs) (growing capability) -- • Thus Ukraine is presenting opportunity for a Baltic states (potential benefit for the Baltics) -- • Ukraine is operating upholding liberal market values (affinity, they are “like us”). • Offers support to Narrative 4 “Baltic states are a model/example for Ukraine” – Ukraine does business following the same rules as in the Baltics, Ukraine is in the trading orbit of the Baltics and a useful part of the regional economic environment.

FINDINGS: Socio-cultural Issue-Area (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 6 • Ukraine has problems with unemployment and low wages (weak capability) • Ukrainian migrants are coming to the Baltic state and do high-skilled work for less money (opportunity for us) -- • Ukrainians may violate the rules in the Baltic countries, but they also may see that our way of life and living standards are better (no affinity, “not like us”, feeling of superiority) • Offers support to Narrative 4 – “how we live is a model/example for Ukraine, thus they migrate to us, but they remain not-us”.

FINDINGS: Socio-cultural Issue-Area (capability, opportunity, affinity) STORYLINE 7 • Ukraine has talented people (strong capability) – • They come to our countries & enrich our cultural/sports life (opportunity for us) – • Ukrainians are cultured and sporty like us (affinity, “like us” or even better). • Offers support to Narrative 1 “we all belong to the same cultural civilizational space (of Europe)”