UCSD IPS TimeDependent Tomography B V Jackson Center

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography B. V. Jackson Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, La. Jolla, CA, USA H. -S. Yu, P. P. Hick, A. Buffington, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, La. Jolla, CA, USA M. Tokumaru Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Nagoya 464 -8601, Japan A. Gonzalez-Espararza, J. Mejia-Ambriz, O. Chang George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA D. Odstrcil George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA S. Hong, J. Kim Korean Space Weather Center, National Radio Research Agency, 198 -6, Jeju, 695 -922 South Korea B. Lee, J. Yi, J. Yun SELab, 8, Nonhyeon-ro 150 -gil, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea M. M Bisi RAL Space, Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX 11 0 QX, England (UK) Masayoshi http: //ips. ucsd. edu/ CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Introduction: IPS Space Weather Predictions IPS Tomographic Analyses: Used primarily with ISEE IPS observations, Other data sets can fill in, or be primary, depending on amount and quality. WIPSS (World Inter. Planetary Scintillation Systems) Analysis: Combined analysis from multiple IPS data sets, 3 D-MHD forward modeling. Magnetic field component forward-modeling – Br, Bt: Part of the model package developed at UCSD. Interesting Developments: GSM Bx, By, Bz CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Today’s Forecast Analysis Masayoshi CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography DATA IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab) IPS line-of-sight response ISEE IPS array systems CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography UCSD IPS Predictions CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B. V. , et al. , 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339 -360. Heliospheric C. A. T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3 D reconstruction. ISEE IPS Sample outward motion over time CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD Space IPS Weather Time-Dependent Predictions Tomography using IPS Heliospheric C. A. T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3 D reconstruction. CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B. V. , et al. , 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339 -360. Heliospheric C. A. T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3 D reconstruction. ISEE IPS 13 14 July 2000 CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography IPS Prediction (KSWC) http: //www. spaceweather. go. kr/models/ips UCSD Kinematic IPS Model CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography IPS Prediction (KSWC) http: //www. spaceweather. go. kr/models/ips IPS-Driven ENLIL CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography More Details Magnetic Field CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography (Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T. , 1995, J. Geophys. Res. , 100 (A 1), 19. ) CSSS model Dunn et al. , 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339– 353. Source surface Br field component sample 1. Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Current UCSD IPS Br, Bt predictions CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography But what is really wanted is Bz CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from. The Parker spiral analysis does not indicate how a normal field (north-south) can occur, and yet the field exists and is ever-present in the heliosphere. CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography (Jackson, B. V. , et al. , 2015, Ap. JL, 803: L 1. 1 - 5, doi: 10. 1088/2041 -8205/803/1/L 1. ) CSSS model Closed field Extrapolated Bn closed Brt field component for CR for 2056 CR 2056 About 1/50 th of the static flux r-1. 34 fall-off CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography 2) All participants agreed to share their data and host websites to present their data in real time as soon as it becomes available. Organization Name WIPSS 3) At this time a new member joined the group of organizations that provide access to their IPS (Worldwide Inter. Planetary Scintillation Stations) data set in real time from the world’s largest (70, 000 m 2) radio array currently operating; the 110 Mhz system at Pushchino, Russia. CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Standard Data Format (as of the Recent Morelia Remote Sensing Workshop, 20 -24 October 2015) CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Standard IPS Format Ascii – Fixed Format As: ftp: //ftp. stelab. nagoya-u. ac. jp/pub/vlist/STEL 2015. dat Date Mid. Obs. UT Dur. Site Freq BW Source Size RA-J 2000 Dec-J 2000 Limb Dist. 20150912 03: 57: 02 2. 8 STEL 327 10 3 C 273 -999 12 29 06 +02 03 12 E 68. 70 Date Mid. Obs. UT Dur. Site Freq BW Source Size RA-J 2000 Dec-J 2000 Limb Dist. Lat. PA Elong Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method 20150912 03: 57: 02 2. 8 STEL 327 10 3 C 273 -999 12 29 06 +02 03 12 E 68. 70 16. 9 74. 5 17. 6 560 3 1. 002 0. 515 3 -St. CC -999 0. 919 0. 301 1 -St. PS Lat. PA Elong Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method 16. 9 74. 5 17. 6 560 3 1. 002 0. 515 3 -St. CC -999 0. 919 0. 301 1 -St. PS New item Used by UCSD tomo. G-value, error CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography “Image” of the Sky View Mexico Viewfrom. MEXART, ISEE, Japan Ecliptic Plane Projection CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography MEXART Analysis (72 L. O. S. ) (Carrington Rotation 2156. 7) MEXART Time Series 11/02 – 11/29 2014 MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT correlation 0. 434 CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Combined ISEE (~1200 L. O. S. ), and MEXART (72 L. O. S. ) Analysis (Carrington Rotation 2156. 7) Combined Time Series 11/02 – 11/29 2014 ISEE-MEXART Ecliptic 11/03/2014 03 UT MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT UT MEXART Cut 11/03/2014 03 correlation 0. 965 CASS/UCSD 2016

UCSD IPS Time-Dependent Tomography Summary: IPS Space Weather Predictions WIPSS: Incorporation of other systems into the tomographic analysis is now available, and helps other IPS sites standardize and edit their own data sets. The term has caught on and, and hopefully will provide a uniform front for IPS space weather work. Interesting Developments: The IPS analysis is a really-great test-bed for many different types of space weather forecasting that include: 1) 3 D-MHD predictions. 2) Bz analysis. CASS/UCSD 2016